Next Superpower Watch

Poll: Your choice for next superpower?
USA (10)
12.66%
China (32)
40.51%
India (10)
12.66%
EU United (11)
13.92%
Japan (4)
5.06%
Brazil (7)
8.86%
Russia (2)
2.53%
Other (3)
3.8%
Spandy
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#1
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#1
Which country, in your opinion is the next superpower? And why?
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Rakas21
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#2
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(Original post by Spandy)
Which country, in your opinion is the next superpower? And why?
By 2050 i feel there are only 4 candidates.. US, China, India and EU. India comes with the caveat that it's poor and it's economy is far from perfect. The EU comes with the caveat that it is not yet a fully fledged state although i'm sure it will become one.

Nigeria is forecast to have a population and economy that could potentially make it a future superpower but like India it's economy under-performs and per capita it's doubtful it will even breach the global average.

No other states have the potential population to fuel sufficient economic expansion. The likes of Mexico, Indonesia and Brazil are second tier future powers while Russia and Japan will be the main losers given their demographic woes.
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MatureStudent36
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(Original post by Spandy)
Which country, in your opinion is the next superpower? And why?
My money's on the US staying where it is for the force able future. China has too many internal problems. India has trouble looking after itself let alone exerting influence.

I think we'll see blocks. Europe , North America and Oceania. Japan
China,
North Africa,
the Middle East,
South American.

Who knows, Iceland may have an outside chance.
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perfectsymbology
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(Original post by MatureStudent36)
My money's on the US staying where it is for the force able future. China has too many internal problems. India has trouble looking after itself let alone exerting influence.

I think we'll see blocks. Europe , North America and Oceania. Japan
China,
North Africa,
the Middle East,
South American.

Who knows, Iceland may have an outside chance.
Iceland is more likely to topple into the atlantic ocean being basically a big chunk of volcanic rock than become a superpower.

China could just as easily overcome its problems.
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MatureStudent36
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(Original post by perfectsymbology)
Iceland is more likely to topple into the atlantic ocean being basically a big chunk of volcanic rock than become a superpower.

China could just as easily overcome its problems.
It's too big IMO.

It's leadership will have a tricky balancing act.

Although china did say for example a few years ago that it wanted to develop a blue water navy and control everything west of Guam, all that's happened is that as they raise the game, so their neighbours just work together and up there's, Japan, Taiwan, Australia, Vietnam to name a few have increased defence spending and the US are refocusing their especially naval efforts to the pacific, remember as well it wasn't to long ago that China was fighting Russia, so they'll try and contain them as well.
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Spandy
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Guys, I don't think China has much of a chance... today, more than 70% of its economy is export-driven
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Huskaris
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(Original post by Spandy)
Guys, I don't think China has much of a chance... today, more than 70% of its economy is export-driven
I think China will be the winner, largely because they are buying up Africa in huge amounts.

I predict that eventually Africa will become the world's China, the last major populace to have an industrial revolution will end up being stuck with industry and exporting in my opinion.

Africa will take time to receive huge amounts of investment (China is offering a lot, but largely in terms of agriculture, this will extend to industry, which will largely be Chinese owned) which is in most part due to the unbelievable levels of corruption/turmoil which have haunted Africa for decades.

Eventually, China will, simply through having a larger populace, which will eventually become mainly middle class, will probably win the superpower war. I just can't see India coming back...
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Spandy
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My friend, China is working Africa on Chinese investment AND labour, rather than local. Leads to a lot of internal resentment and discontent.
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HarryBarney
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China is the current superpower and with Russia-China links it seems as if it will only stay that way.

Posted from TSR Mobile
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Rakas21
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(Original post by HarryBarney)
China is the current superpower and with Russia-China links it seems as if it will only stay that way.

Posted from TSR Mobile
Russia doesn't really add anything to China's power. Russia lacks the military or economic importance and China could procure from elsewhere if it so wished.
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Observatory
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The real question is how the various powers, which do not any more have strongly divergent interests, will deal with the Islamic bomb.
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MagicNMedicine
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Whats interesting is how everyone has taken it as a given that the likes of China and India are on the way up and are becoming 'superpowers' whereas the UK is on the way down.

What do China and India have, that the UK doesn't, that is meaning we are going to overtake them?

The usual rant about the decline of the UK is that it's becoming overpopulated, overcrowded, wages are being driven down, so what is it in China and India that is making them so strong?
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william walker
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#13
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Argentina, Kenya or Poland.

China has just overtaken the US as the largest economy in the world by GDP PPP. It is a terrible statistic and China is likely lying about the numbers, but all governments do. I just thought people should know.

I would also add that power is manipulation, not size. China, India, Brazil and the like are large and they will remain so. However they will struggle to project their power because of it.

Smaller nations like UK, Japan, Poland, Kenya and Argentina will because of their geographical position and demographics be more powerful.
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william walker
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(Original post by MagicNMedicine)
Whats interesting is how everyone has taken it as a given that the likes of China and India are on the way up and are becoming 'superpowers' whereas the UK is on the way down.

What do China and India have, that the UK doesn't, that is meaning we are going to overtake them?

The usual rant about the decline of the UK is that it's becoming overpopulated, overcrowded, wages are being driven down, so what is it in China and India that is making them so strong?
They have hundreds of millions of low skilled people. We don't. Our economy is different. The reason why we are declining is the government.
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Spandy
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(Original post by william walker)
Argentina, Kenya or Poland.

China has just overtaken the US as the largest economy in the world by GDP PPP. It is a terrible statistic and China is likely lying about the numbers, but all governments do. I just thought people should know.

I would also add that power is manipulation, not size. China, India, Brazil and the like are large and they will remain so. However they will struggle to project their power because of it.

Smaller nations like UK, Japan, Poland, Kenya and Argentina will because of their geographical position and demographics be more powerful.
I don't agree, China certainly has the largest economy, though most of it is export-driven. I feel that larger countries like China and India will dominate because not only do they have a middle class of 350mn+ and 250mn+, and a poor sector, who can be used as industrial workers (India really needs them). They are already the largest and third largest economies in the world respectively...
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Spandy
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#16
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One sphere where both China and India fall flat is the education system. Both produce enough rote learners, but by innovative learning, both... well, the less said the better
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william walker
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#17
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(Original post by Spandy)
I don't agree, China certainly has the largest economy, though most of it is export-driven. I feel that larger countries like China and India will dominate because not only do they have a middle class of 350mn+ and 250mn+, and a poor sector, who can be used as industrial workers (India really needs them). They are already the largest and third largest economies in the world respectively...
Well I actually don't think China has the largest economy in the world. The US is still far ahead. However in the GDP PPP China is now ahead. PPP is based on exchange rate and not the economy of a nation. In terms of the non-exchange rate measure the US is about 6 trillion dollars ahead.

Sorry but inflation doesn't work like that. If the middle class grows so do prices, this inflation increases the cost of low skilled labour and causes a loss of dynamism within the economy. The way you get out of it is using capital within your economy from the middle class to buy the goods from the low skilled people. However this isn't happening in India or China because the middle class now has choice and is buying better things from the west or cheaper things from other nations like Viet Nam or the Philippines.
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Stalin
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#18
(Original post by MagicNMedicine)
What do China and India have, that the UK doesn't, that is meaning we are going to overtake them?
Both have considerably greater populations, considerably less debt, and by 2050 should have considerably larger economies. Consequently, they'll be able to afford considerably larger armed forces than the UK, and thus overtake it.
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Rakas21
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(Original post by Stalin)
Both have considerably greater populations, considerably less debt, and by 2050 should have considerably larger economies. Consequently, they'll be able to afford considerably larger armed forces than the UK, and thus overtake it.
Now, now. When you consider per capita output and tax revenues we only need an extra 300 million people to be a superpower. We either need to let these people immigrate or create a race of super virile men.
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Stalin
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(Original post by Rakas21)
Now, now. When you consider per capita output and tax revenues we only need an extra 300 million people to be a superpower. We either need to let these people immigrate or create a race of super virile men.
Even now, China is more powerful than the UK because of the size and importance of its economy.

Tarmac the Irish Sea - I'm sure you could fit at least 100 million people.
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