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Nick Clegg to lose his seat!? watch

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    A poll has put Labour surprisingly only 3% behind the Lib Dems in Nick Clegg's Sheffield Hallam seat, given they were a distant 3rd place in 2005.

    The constituency, naturally, isn't on Labour's target list as they were so far behind. So, according to a Guardian article today, there's very little effort apparently going in to the seat (the Labour candidate is trying to get his own donations via his website, rather than money coming from the central Labour party).

    So could Clegg be unseated? Should Labour do more to win the seat?
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    Of course he could be.

    Hope he isn't.
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    No.

    He will retain it. People like him and as an individual, he is a good politician.

    However, based on Lib dem forecasts, he is basically standing as an independent party.
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    (Original post by democracyforum)
    he is a good politician.
    He single handedly alienated the people that voted for him with his outrageous lies, ensuring a generation of young voters now distrust politicians, politics and will not ever vote Lib Dems again.

    If that's your definition of a good politician, I'd hate to see your definition of a bad one :lol:
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    Here are the results from the poll, which the change from the 2005 election in brackets:

    Conservative 19% (-5%)
    Labour 28% (+12%)
    Liberal Democrat 31% (-21%)
    UKIP 11% (+9%)
    The Green Party 9% (+7%)
    Other 1% (-2%)
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    (Original post by Brit_Miller)
    He single handedly alienated the people that voted for him with his outrageous lies, ensuring a generation of young voters now distrust politicians, politics and will not ever vote Lib Dems again.

    If that's your definition of a good politician, I'd hate to see your definition of a bad one :lol:
    He's a tea boy to the Conservatives.

    He has no power.

    They were a protest vote that got found out.
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    He'll win. The targeting of effort by the LibDems for the election will be ruthless and with very few exceptions if you're a LibDem candidate in a seat they don't already hold, you will be told to forget that and go and help in one they do instead. I wouldn't be surprised if a couple of the MPs are told their seat is hopeless, go and campaign elsewhere either.

    A combination of that, plus some equally ruthless squeezing of the third party votes ('Do you want a Labour / Tory MP? No? Your candidate can't win - vote LibDem!') means I'm almost confident enough to bet on it.

    All politicians break at least some promises in power ('we will reform the electoral system' - Labour 1997, 'we will not change how the NHS is organised' - Tories 2010, to give just two examples!)

    Clegg's mistake was to make the promise about the fees issue a headline pledge and then not insist on it happening as part of the coalition agreement. That the funding situation for students is better than it was - you now don't need to pay anything upfront - is ignored.
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    It's no secret the Lib Dems are suffering badly in the polls at the moment. However, I think it's unlikely Clegg will lose his seat. He's generally well-respected, despite some of his awful faux-pas moments, and he's a big name in UK politics which people in his constituency will no doubt like. I also think it's too early to be taking polls to seriously. Public opinion is going in a state of flux over the next few months.
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    (Original post by RK)
    A poll has put Labour surprisingly only 3% behind the Lib Dems in Nick Clegg's Sheffield Hallam seat, given they were a distant 3rd place in 2005.

    The constituency, naturally, isn't on Labour's target list as they were so far behind. So, according to a Guardian article today, there's very little effort apparently going in to the seat (the Labour candidate is trying to get his own donations via his website, rather than money coming from the central Labour party).

    So could Clegg be unseated? Should Labour do more to win the seat?
    The poll looks a little odd with the swing from Lib to Lab being so big (far bigger than the national average) although one can see the protest vote headed for Ukip and the Tory-Green totals being about right.

    I think given that they'll probably recover a little closer to the election and depending how the poll allocated DK's (statistically at least half vote for the party they did before) that Clegg will probably hold the seat relatively easy.

    While you do make the case that Labour have put little effort in, as Deputy PM i doubt Clegg has been around much either. Once the campaign starts proper Clegg will no doubt fight in his seat and put the focus on what they've done rather than the media headlines. Plus the 'think how much worse the Tories would have been without us' factor.
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    I suspect tactical voting by Greens may well push Labour over the line. And there is a large student contingent in that constituency that Nick Clegg is right to fear.

    The fundamental problem for the Liberal Democrats is that they ran to the left of Labour and then betrayed everything they claimed to stand for by jumping in bed with the Tories. It was the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact of 21st century British politics.

    The Lib Dem political machine is disintegrating on the ground, in my own local government area we absolutely destroyed them because their activists are so disillusioned they're simply not turning out to knock on doors and hand out leaflets. You can see the despair if you click onto LibDemVoice
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    (Original post by Rakas21)
    Plus the 'think how much worse the Tories would have been without us' factor.
    That proposition hardly survives contact with reality; the Tories got pretty much everything they wanted, the Lib Dems got shafted.
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    (Original post by young_guns)
    That proposition hardly survives contact with reality; the Tories got pretty much everything they wanted, the Lib Dems got shafted.
    Not really, that's just a reflection of the fact that the Lib Dem PR machine is rubbish.
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    (Original post by young_guns)
    That proposition hardly survives contact with reality; the Tories got pretty much everything they wanted, the Lib Dems got shafted.
    I don't like the Lib Dems but this is not at all accurate, either in terms of policies they wanted or moderating influence on Tory policy.
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    (Original post by Birkenhead)
    I don't like the Lib Dems but this is not at all accurate, either in terms of policies they wanted or moderating influence on Tory policy.
    They have moderated some Tory policies (on some aspects of security legislation and on Europe), but on matters of fundamental economic policy, they have been arm-in-arm with the Tories because the Orange Bookers who control the Liberal Democrats are on the same ideological wavelength as Cameron and Osborne. Danny Alexander is at one with the Tory frontbench.

    For those people who voted for a Liberal Democrat party they perceived as running to Labour's left, they do not see the Tories as having been moderated in any serious way. And if the Tories had run further the right, it only would have been to their own electoral detriment
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    (Original post by Rakas21)
    Not really, that's just a reflection of the fact that the Lib Dem PR machine is rubbish.
    Oh really? How did they get on with their tuition fees and Lords reform policies?
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    (Original post by young_guns)
    Oh really? How did they get on with their tuition fees and Lords reform policies?
    On Lords reform they got further than any party in 100 years and only had to shelve because Labour played politics.

    But i can of course remind you about raising the tax threshold, the pupil premium, some of the 'green crap' ect.. there's been plenty done.

    ..

    Your pushing the Labour narrative very well but it's not borne out in reality, only in perception (which unfortunately will matter on election day).
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    Sheffield Hallam used to have a Conservative MP and a Conservative councillor years ago no longer. It also has the highest number of graduates of any constituency I believe.

    After the Thatcher years the Conservative Party have been disintegrating all over South Yorkshire. Think the demise of heavy industry here - steel and mining. The Conservatives can't find a candidate living locally. Ditto the Lib Dems. Nick Clegg has moved south, sold his house, given up I guess. Decided his future is not with Sheffield. This is not a good political move if he does still want the seat. The Labour Party on the other hand has a candidate born and brought up in the area.

    The Labour voters in this constituency have been voting Lib Dem tactically for years to keep out the Conservatives. People in Sheffield have an enormous loyalty to the area so this gives Oliver Coppard, the Labour Candidate, an advantage. They may well revert to what or who they know and trust rather than a Londoner they can't trust anymore?

    Disloyalty as in Nick Clegg and his betrayal on University fees and his lack of support for Sheffield is not easily forgiven - his partnering up with the Arch Enemy the Conservatives is considered the last straw.

    Once the Lib Dems formed a coalition with the Conservatives they immediately lost these Labour tactical voters. If you vote Lib Dem you keep in a Conservative Government is how they see it. The Lib Dems have struggled to keep the councillors they had in Sheffield - the last Lib Dem leader lost his seat a couple of years ago.

    As a result I would say it's anybody's guess what will happen. The Lib Dems certainly think the main threat is coming from the Labour Party apparently, according to their leaflets.

    The LibDems had put up posters in the Uni Halls of Residence at the last local elections They were written over with F...ED US OVER so I don't think there'll be much support for the Lib Dems from that quarter.
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    I confess to having been surprised to discover that Sheffield Hallam, which constituency does not include the same named university, is the most affluent outside SE England, 11th most affluent in the country, and better educated than Cambridge. Prior to Clegg's immediate Lib Dem predecessor it had been Tory all the way back.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sheffie..._constituency)
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    (Original post by cambio wechsel)
    I confess to having been surprised to discover that Sheffield Hallam, which constituency does not include the same named university, is the most affluent outside SE England, 11th most affluent in the country, and better educated than Cambridge. Prior to Clegg's immediate Lib Dem predecessor it had been Tory all the way back.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sheffie..._constituency)
    And they will be looking surprisingly stupid come May
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    Is Clegg really going? Marvelous!
 
 
 
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