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EU referendum held in 3 constituencies & 80% vote to leave watch

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    In the biggest vote or poll since 1975 an EU referendum was held in 3 constituencies with almost 15,000 votes. 80% voted to leave the EU.

    Thoughts? Is this an indication of what could happen in a nationwide vote, will it add pressure to David Cameron to hold a vote sooner?

    http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/553...EU-poll-reveal
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    Which constituencies?

    According to the article turnout for the election was around 15%. That's pretty ****.
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    It wasn't really a proper referendum, so only the really determined people were likely to vote as they want to send a message - the silent majority were probably hardly represented at all. The turnout was also pretty low, and it was only held in 3 constituencies.

    In a nationwide referendum, it could go either way. From what I know the polls are mixed and have it fairly close.
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    Well, I may be called a self-centered t**t, but if the UK leaves the EU what will happen to all the European Union students in English/Scottish universties which are funding their studies through the use of Student Loans? Bear in mind we only get financial aid to study at uni, but not maintenance loans. Furthermore, even though the UK has never joined the Schengen Area, EU passport holders are currently allowed to remain in the UK without the need of visa and EU students do not pay international fees...so what would happen to us? Would we be forced into asking a Tier-4 visa to study and find ourselves other means of financing our degrees even though we have had a loan since Year 1?
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    Three constituencies, but only 100,000 papers delivered? And of those, only 15% responded?

    Whilst there is enough demand for any party to at least have to have a very good reason why not, this 'referendum' seems to have fallen rather flat. But I guess they've got to go with it.
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    Recent nationwide polls showed support for withdrawal ranged from 36%-48%.

    I think the poll featured in the Express piece may be a bit wide of the mark...
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    Thje out people are like the #scots TYes campaign. It seems like a good idea until banks and other businesses start saying they either leave Scotland or cut jobs in Scotland.

    If a referendum on leaving the EU as going to be held, the people who want to stay in will start saying so many businesses and jobs will leave the UK. People will then have to decide if they actually want to take the risk of loosing thier own jobs if they work for companies that do a lot of business in Europe, 60% of UK exports are to other EU countries. Of course, you can negotiate new trading terms with the EU if Britain does leave but no one knows what these will be like and how much exports will be affected.

    The out people are pretty vocal at the moment while the in people haven't said anything because its the status quo. I expect it will be like the Scottish referendum when the idealist yes people loose to the pragmantic nos.
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    Those who shout loudest, vote.

    My point is, only people who want to leave the EU tend to vote in these elections.
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    It's not a referendum, it's a poll and inevitably those who voted are those who feel very strongly about leaving. This poll also contradicts all other ones considering EU journalism. Shoddy journalism, but then again it is the express.
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    This poll:

    a) Was only held in three constituencies, all of which tend to elect right-wing eurosceptic MPs
    b) Had a turnout of less than 15% amongst those asked
    c) Saw ballot papers delivered with leaflets which had a blatant eurosceptic bias

    I think we can safely decide to roundly ignore it, although I'm of the opinion that the media misportraying these kind of things in an attempt to influence public opinion should be illegal.
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    In the ninetieth century you didn't even need a passport to emigrate to anywhere in Europe or to work anywhere in Europe. In this century we saw an incredible growth in freedom and incredible economic growth. Freedom of movement benefits us economically.
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    (Original post by Ace123)
    In the biggest vote or poll since 1975 an EU referendum was held in 3 constituencies with almost 15,000 votes. 80% voted to leave the EU.

    Thoughts? Is this an indication of what could happen in a nationwide vote, will it add pressure to David Cameron to hold a vote sooner?

    http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/553...EU-poll-reveal
    It wasn't a sampled and weighted poll and it was conducted by 3 Euro-skeptics. I shall quote analysis by UK polling as to why that's bad..

    I expect lots of people who aren’t familiar with how polling works will see a claim like this, see that 14,000 took part, and think it must therefore be meaningful (in the same way, a naive criticism of polls is often that they only interview 1000 people). The best example of why this doesn’t work was the polling for the 1936 Presidential election in the USA, which heralded modern polling and tested big sample sizes to destruction. Back then the most well known poll was that done by a magazine, the Literary Digest. The Literary Digest too sent out ballot papers to as many people as it could – it sent them to its subscribers, to other subscription lists, to everyone in the phone directory, to everyone with a car, etc, etc. In 1936 it sent out 10 million ballot papers and received two point four million responses. Based on these replies, they confidently predicted that the Republican candidate Alf Landon would win the election. Meanwhile the then little known George Gallup interviewed just a few thousand people, but using proper demographic quotas to get a sample that was representative of the American public. Gallup’s data predicted a landslide win for the Democrat candidate Franklin D Roosevelt. Gallup was of course right, the Literary Digest embarrassingly wrong. The reason was that the Literary Digest’s huge sample of 2.4 million was drawn from the sort of people who had telephones, cars and magazine subscriptions and, in depression era America, these people voted Republican.
    It also was not the biggest. Ashcroft got 20,000 for a properly weighted poll with a 41-41% result....

    Coming back to the Express’s “poll”, a campaign about leaving Europe run by three Tory election candidates in the East Midlands is likely to largely be responded to by Conservative sympathisers with strong views about Europe, hence the result. Luckily we have lots of properly conducted polls that are sampled and weighted to be representative of whole British public and they consistently show a different picture. There are some differences between different companies – YouGov ask it a couple of time a month and find support for leaving the EU varying between 37% and 44%, Survation asked a couple of months ago and found support for leaving at 47%, Opinium have shown it as high as 48%. For those still entranced by large sample sizes, Lord Ashcroft did a poll of 20,000 people on the subject of Europe last year (strangely larger than the Express’s “largest poll for 40 years”!) and found people splitting down the middle 41% stay – 41% leave.
 
 
 
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