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Which 2 countries will form the G2 @ 2050? watch

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    China/India
    1
    20.00%
    China/USA
    4
    80.00%

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    That's that
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    G2 - the two strongest industrial/economy nation in the world? why do you think its two, not one, so G1?
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    While growing at a good pace by global standards, India has not yet maximised its economic potential in the way that China has and due to the fact that India is a manufactured state (albeit centuries old), it still seems that it's hard to rule as one country. Even getting every province to provide power is something not achieved yet. Not only that but the US by virtue of being stinking rich per capita in comparison, will still be more important (case in point, US-Canadian trade is worth more than US-China trade despite the later having a larger combined GDP).

    So in 2050 it will be US-China.

    That being said i suspect a G4 will be more accurate. US-China-India-EU (by that time a large federation).
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    (Original post by Kallisto)
    G2 - the two strongest industrial/economy nation in the world? why do you think its two, not one, so G1?
    Because, despite all its progress, China remains quite vulnerable and susceptible to lack of internal cohesion. See the umbrella revolution for instance, also, China still has 157mn below the poverty line of $1.25 per day. Moreover, the fragile states index doesn't show China in as positive a light as its (mostly) shown worldwide.
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    (Original post by Spandy)
    Because, despite all its progress, China remains quite vulnerable and susceptible to lack of internal cohesion. See the umbrella revolution for instance, also, China still has 157mn below the poverty line of $1.25 per day. Moreover, the fragile states index doesn't show China in as positive a light as its (mostly) shown worldwide.
    But what will happen to G8, so that it will reduce to G2? I don't understand your point of view that you believe in such an economic development in the future.
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    (Original post by Kallisto)
    But what will happen to G8, so that it will reduce to G2? I don't understand your point of view that you believe in such an economic development in the future.
    Unfortunately, I don't understand what you are trying to say. I was only saying that there will be no 'G1' in the future
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    (Original post by Spandy)
    Unfortunately, I don't understand what you are trying to say. I was only saying that there will be no 'G1' in the future
    See, there are eight countries which are counted as the eight great industrial ones at the moment, namely Germany, France, Italy, Japan, Canada, Russia, United Kingdom and the USA.

    Why do you think that this important position will get lost by these countries completely in 35 years?
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    Hmmm cant pick a top 2, but for a top 4

    THE USA
    GERMANY
    BRAZIL
    CHINA
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    (Original post by Kallisto)
    See, there are eight countries which are counted as the eight great industrial ones at the moment, namely Germany, France, Italy, Japan, Canada, Russia, United Kingdom and the USA.

    Why do you think that this important position will get lost by these countries completely in 35 years?
    Simply because of their size. China, USA and India can beat them in sheer numbers. Russia is looking quite unstable atm, or they would have been in the picture too.
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    (Original post by Kallisto)
    See, there are eight countries which are counted as the eight great industrial ones at the moment, namely Germany, France, Italy, Japan, Canada, Russia, United Kingdom and the USA.

    Why do you think that this important position will get lost by these countries completely in 35 years?
    Simply due to sheer numbers. I would have included Russia as well, but unfortunately, they're looking dangerously unstable atm.
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    (Original post by Spandy)
    Simply because of their size. China, USA and India can beat them in sheer numbers. Russia is looking quite unstable atm, or they would have been in the picture too.
    Wait and see. Whenever people are thinking about the future it comes completely different. Just think about the time 35 years ago and tell me what has been changed in this period of time. I am sure there were some events which were not predicted at that time.
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    India and China but one might be replaced by an Arab country.
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    I would say it is more like US/EU
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    I don't think there'd be any point in a G2... if we got to a point where 2 countries were responsible for 60+% of the world economy their finance ministers could just decide to have meetings with each other without having to give it a name.
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    Looking at the question from the perspective of the factors of production, land is finite (except by conquest), labour is subject to birth rates and of course land to live on, capital can be acquired over time and entrepreneurship can be developed. Whilst the USA does have sufficient land mass to grow population to stay in the game, there is no will of the people to breed at the rate that would be required. Accordingly China has to be firm favourite for number one spot at some point but as wealth amongst the others eventually spreads wider (if of course politically it does/ is allowed to happen) I am not sure USA will remain in the running.for number two, I suspect one or other of the other named suspects (but not Germany as also population/land mass constrained) will take number two spot. EU is a bit of a cheat as it would be acquiring mass by merger.

    However the above is not a given by 2050 but is probably a given sometime. I think USA/Germany overtook UK (Empire) circa 1900-1910, Germany of course fell back when divided and has of course grown since, but at the end of the day size (of land mass and population) does matter and as time has moved on the availability of capital and the spirit of entrepreneurship has proliferated allowing China, India et al to advance significantly.

    Edit- by advance I mean in economic terms not in cultural terms, China and India have of course throughout history been culturally advanced.
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    I wonder if the US will even be one country in 2050.
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    (Original post by Izzyeviel)
    I wonder if the US will even be one country in 2050.
    They have already tried splitting into two but it did not work out very well.
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    (Original post by DJKL)
    They have already tried splitting into two but it did not work out very well.
    Yes but they have more religious fanatics involved in their politics nowadays. Who knows what they'll be like in 20-30 years, I don't think they're going to get any calmer.
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    (Original post by Izzyeviel)
    Yes but they have more religious fanatics involved in their politics nowadays. Who knows what they'll be like in 20-30 years, I don't think they're going to get any calmer.
    My observation of the USA and Americans has always been that whilst there are some big divides within the country (wealth divide- haves/ have nots) they in the main all see themselves as American and there is a very strong spirit of being American. I am not that convinced they will any time soon split asunder. Americans still seem to have a collective "Manifest Destiny".
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    Entirely unpredictable. Would be like asking someone at the beginning of the 80s, just as Reagan and Thatcher were getting acquainted, what the world would look like in 2015. No one is going to get it right.
 
 
 
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