New Opinion Polls 16/02

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Cadherin
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ICM shows the Conservatives with a 4pt lead and YouGov shows them neck-and-neck - statistically significant of the gap closing or just another blip?

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jjm456
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You can't really read to much into the polls to be honest, especially when it's so tight. The number of people surveyed is just too small. However, I reckon the Tories are probably going to be the largest party due to shy Tory voters in the polls and the fact the opposition are often ahead at this stage. Shame...
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Jammy Duel
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As I said on the thread suggesting that labour will win because they had I think it was 6pc lead in one poll, you can tell almost nothing of importance from a single poll, however, of the Torygraph is to believed, as far as the pollsters go this is the most accurate one for the election day result and what it would mean is that the Tories will have a minority but choice as to who they let into the beef with them, of anybody.

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Rakas21
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(Original post by Cadherin)
ICM shows the Conservatives with a 4pt lead and YouGov shows them neck-and-neck - statistically significant of the gap closing or just another blip?

Discuss!
The truth is that the Ashcroft (30%) and ICM (36%) were probably at either end of the margin of error this week (though interestingly Aschcroft gave them 34% and a lead last week), especially when you look at other polls in relation which all have Labour and the Tories near the 33% range pretty much tied. I personally do rate ICM though but until April i'm taking a 3 move average in terms of my opinion from their polls which suggests Labour ahead slightly.

I do however think that the Tories will break close to the election (see sig for prediction) but Labour have a 3% advantage in seat distribution meaning they pretty much tie.

In terms of polling trends the Tories have got a higher number of lead and ties every month since November (though Labour still have more), for this to be the case this month then the remaining 9 days of the month need to show 7 polls giving ties or Tory leads. I fear though that HSBC may have stopped the Tory progress this month.

This chart is also important..

Image

Tonights TNS poll has Labour 7% ahead but one can see that they tend to be more generous for Labour anyway. Equally one can see that that ICM is broadly neutral for Tory-Labour but dislikes Ukip and likes the Lib Dems.
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Cadherin
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(Original post by jjm456)
You can't really read to much into the polls to be honest, especially when it's so tight. The number of people surveyed is just too small. However, I reckon the Tories are probably going to be the largest party due to shy Tory voters in the polls and the fact the opposition are often ahead at this stage. Shame...
Why a shame?
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username878267
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TNS poll gave Labour a 7 point lead.
That, like the 4 point Tory lead from ICM is an outlier.
Could be explained by a number of factors: sampling, methodology, etc etc.

Why people get excited by single polls, I don't know.
The trend should get the attention, not the exceptions. But the press decided to jump on the fact ONE poll was showing a large tory lead when about 95% of polls this year have shown a very tight race, the odd one showing a Tory lead,a fair few ties and the majority a Labour lead by a point or two.

The reality is still a 1-2 point Labour lead as that's the trend. Any single poll showing a big difference from the trend can nearly always be ignored and discredited.
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Jammy Duel
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(Original post by Bornblue)
TNS poll gave Labour a 7 point lead.
That, like the 4 point Tory lead from ICM is an outlier.
Could be explained by a number of factors: sampling, methodology, etc etc.

Why people get excited by single polls, I don't know.
The trend should get the attention, not the exceptions. But the press decided to jump on the fact ONE poll was showing a large tory lead when about 95% of polls this year have shown a very tight race, the odd one showing a Tory lead,a fair few ties and the majority a Labour lead by a point or two.

The reality is still a 1-2 point Labour lead as that's the trend. Any single poll showing a big difference from the trend can nearly always be ignored and discredited.
As I said earlier in the thread, if the Torygraph is to be believed, and even as a reader I can say it can't, this poll is reflective of the election day results. Saying that, the general trend of the sway of support in the long campaign would suggest that this poll isn't inaccurate in that it tends to show a swing from Labour to the Conservatives in the last 2-3 months of a good few percent. Sadly not enough for a Conservative majority, but enough that the Conservatives would ultimately decide what happens.
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jjm456
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(Original post by Cadherin)
Why a shame?
Just my personal opinion
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username878267
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(Original post by Jammy Duel)
As I said earlier in the thread, if the Torygraph is to be believed, and even as a reader I can say it can't, this poll is reflective of the election day results. Saying that, the general trend of the sway of support in the long campaign would suggest that this poll isn't inaccurate in that it tends to show a swing from Labour to the Conservatives in the last 2-3 months of a good few percent. Sadly not enough for a Conservative majority, but enough that the Conservatives would ultimately decide what happens.
One poll shows nothing and nothing can be inferred from a single poll.
You always look at the trend not the outliers and the trend is a Labour lead of 1-2 points. If suddenly most polls gave Tories a 4 pt lead that would be the trend. They haven't though and it's merely an outlier.

Nothing to see here, although the media reaction was hysterical to say the least.
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Jammy Duel
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(Original post by Bornblue)
One poll shows nothing and nothing can be inferred from a single poll.
You always look at the trend not the outliers and the trend is a Labour lead of 1-2 points. If suddenly most polls gave Tories a 4 pt lead that would be the trend. They haven't though and it's merely an outlier.

Nothing to see here, although the media reaction was hysterical to say the least.
I suggest you take a look at the trend of the gap between the two main parties during the long campaign for the last couple of decades or so and you will see why it's perhaps better off the actual results of the election than most results at this time. Doesn't change that the only poll that matters is the one on the day that is called "the results", and it's not as funny as the national reaction to the one poll that put YES ahead in the independence referendum, even if depressing.

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username878267
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(Original post by Jammy Duel)
I suggest you take a look at the trend of the gap between the two main parties during the long campaign for the last couple of decades or so and you will see why it's perhaps better off the actual results of the election than most results at this time. Doesn't change that the only poll that matters is the one on the day that is called "the results", and it's not as funny as the national reaction to the one poll that put YES ahead in the independence referendum, even if depressing.

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The gap has closed but that's largely the Labour vote going down rather than the Tory vote increasing.
Some to SNP, Greens, UKIP etc.

All I'm saying is that you can't take any notice of one poll that is significantly different to the average. The average is a Labour lead of 1-2 points and anything far away from that is simply an outlier and should be discarded.
I've seen two articles in recent days, one about the big tory lead and one about the big Labour lead, both failing to see that they're merely outliers and not worth a second glance, never mind a newspaper article.

As you say the only 'poll' that matters is the election itself.
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illegaltobepoor
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Polls don't mean anything to be honest. This years elections are going to be completely different.

Majority of people know UKIP are being made to look bad but that won't stop them voting for them. UKIP are taking votes from all parties and in the general election I think we could see more people voting UKIP than the Euro elections.

Majority of the working classes will swing vote for sure.

What is going to decide this election is 2 things.

1. Either Ed Millband gives a referendum on the EU.
2. David Cameron ends the nasty party rubbish.

They will be the deciding factors because the Kippers are set in motion right now.
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Rakas21
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2 polls put the Tories ahead by 3% tonight with a third keeping Labour ahead.
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username878267
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(Original post by Rakas21)
2 polls put the Tories ahead by 3% tonight with a third keeping Labour ahead.
Normal variation and well within the margin of error. A poll last week put Labour 7 points ahead.
Nothing to get excited about. The Ashcroft poll showing a 3 point tory lead showed a 5 point Labour lead last week. There has not been an 8 point national swing to the tories in one week.
Still the vast majority of polls and the trend is a Labour lead of 1-2 points.
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c_al
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The last few opinion polls would suggest that the tories seem to be slowly gaining momentum. Three polls since the start of the month have shown them ahead by several points.
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username878267
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YouGov poll,, the same one which had the Tories 3 points ahead has now shown Labour 4 points ahead.
I hope this will stop people overreacting to outliers. Labour are no more 4 points ahead than the Tories were 3 points ahead, there certainly hasn't been a 7 point swing over the course of two days.

The trend should get the attention, not the exceptions and the trend is still showing a 1-2 point Labour lead.
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Rakas21
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Yup. Hope of any break quashed tonight, we are just seeing some erratic movement close to the persisting trend.
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Cadherin
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#18
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I think that they're pretty much neck-and-neck in terms of % - the average polling puts Con: 32 and Lab: 33.

Can we go into minus numbers for the Lib Dem support?
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