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Do you support preemptive strikes on Iran?

The article is from a couple of years ago, though I gather that the option is still supported from some areas.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2463591/Israeli-prime-minister-Netanyahu-makes-case-pre-emptive-strike-Iran.html


Was just wondering what your views are on this?

Scroll to see replies

Depends if the benefits of a preemptive strike out way the benfits of not.
Usually I'm against interventions, but usually that's because the reasons are weak compared to the costs.

Assuming their purely precision strikes to take out Iran's nuclear facilities in the event they're going to have the bomb, it may be worth it seeing as Iran is run by some hard-line fundamentalists and alongside threatening Israel would heavily destabilize the middle-east further in the ongoing Sunni - Shiite conflict. Saudi Arabia would want it's own bomb for a start.

It'd also likely suck America back into the region and start a war that the west doesn't want or need.


I honestly dunno, but I'd rather Iran doesn't have the bomb. But who knows how the Iranian leadership would react once they feel safe behind a nuclear shield. They'll either relax a bit or go full nutbar.
Reply 3
Of course not. Such a strike would be criminally insane. There's very little, if any, evidence that Iran are trying to develop nuclear weapons, and if the United States really wanted to prevent them from attaining them, they could vote for the non-proliferation treaty to be enforced, but that would mean that their ally, Israel, would have to give up their nuclear weapons as well.

It would lead to a lot of unnecessary death and destruction and, as I said, there's virtually no evidence that Iran want to develop nuclear weapons. Negotiations are currently in progress, anyway.

Furthermore, it's Netanyahu who advocates it, and he's certainly criminally insane. Even the United States are starting to get sick of his antics and his attempts to undermine the negotiations with Iran. He's a pathetic warmonger.
(edited 9 years ago)
No. It's not even an option.

1. Iran are useful allies, in the war on terror and against ISIS. We need to have at least a working relationship with Iran.
2. A pre-emptive strike on Iran would set off a significant war in the Middle East. And one, which would have the potential to go nuclear, very quickly.
3. No one nation has the right to nuclear weapons above all nations. Even if we disagree with the idea of a nuclear, and lets beat about the bush, that's a terrifying prospect, it should equally be abhorrant that Israel has many more nuclear weapons than Iran does, and refuses to comply with international law.
4. Iran have a more reasonable government than they did just two years ago.
Reply 5
I used to really support the idea of strikes on Iran but having put more thought into it I can't see them achieving anything. At present Iran appears to be developing a break out capability, so bombs within a few months, rather than actually building a stock. This will be very attractive to their leaders as it provides a hedge against future crisis, whilst not bringing about the consequences that having a bomb will cause.

If this changes all strikes will achieve is pushing back the the program, rather than destroying it. Iran will then appear justified developing the bomb, the hardliners will be strengthened and Iran will no doubt retaliate asymmetrically through its various proxies. Most of what strikes are meant to prevent, a nuclear Iran and the destabilizing effect on the region will themselves be caused through attacking Iran, making them pointless.

To my mind what we should do is continue the current course, sanctions and negotiation. If Iran does develop a bomb the best response would be containment and the reassurement of allies in the region to stop a nuclear arms race.
Original post by jammy4041
2. A pre-emptive strike on Iran would set off a significant war in the Middle East. And one, which would have the potential to go nuclear, very quickly.


Rubbish.

Just explain to us how this has the potential to go nuclear very quickly?

3. No one nation has the right to nuclear weapons above all nations. Even if we disagree with the idea of a nuclear, and lets beat about the bush, that's a terrifying prospect, it should equally be abhorrant that Israel has many more nuclear weapons than Iran does, and refuses to comply with international law.


I'm not supporter of the Israeli government, but at least it's rational. The Iranian theocracy, however, is unpredictable, and enabling such a regime to acquire a nuclear weapon would force the other regional powers to do so as well, ergo creating a nuclear arms race in the Middle East.

Pretty smart.

4. Iran have a more reasonable government than they did just two years ago.


The 'government' is a front: the Mullahs run Iran.
Original post by Aj12
I used to really support the idea of strikes on Iran but having put more thought into it I can't see them achieving anything. At present Iran appears to be developing a break out capability, so bombs within a few months, rather than actually building a stock. This will be very attractive to their leaders as it provides a hedge against future crisis, whilst not bringing about the consequences that having a bomb will cause.

If this changes all strikes will achieve is pushing back the the program, rather than destroying it. Iran will then appear justified developing the bomb, the hardliners will be strengthened and Iran will no doubt retaliate asymmetrically through its various proxies. Most of what strikes are meant to prevent, a nuclear Iran and the destabilizing effect on the region will themselves be caused through attacking Iran, making them pointless.

To my mind what we should do is continue the current course, sanctions and negotiation. If Iran does develop a bomb the best response would be containment and the reassurement of allies in the region to stop a nuclear arms race.


Good luck getting the Saudis on board that policy.

:rolleyes:
Israel is arguably in the worst part of the world right now. They have a lot of money and military capability to back up their words but its not the right thing to do.

Not sure what the US, UK, Israel want out of the middle east (some sort of liquid black substance maybe). Its already unstable as it is. Toppling another country isn't going to help.
Reply 9
Yes, I think the world didn't take an enough serious determination to prevent nuclear development. They need to show they are serious about it. A preemptive strike on Iran will also be welcomed by the people who hate the regime so much that I can't put into words.
Reply 10
Original post by Stalin
Good luck getting the Saudis on board that policy.

:rolleyes:


Yes that would be the main issue. It's not even like they'd have to develop a nuke. They'd just buy some from the Pakistanis.

So what's your solution to Iran then?

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Original post by Aj12
Yes that would be the main issue. It's not even like they'd have to develop a nuke. They'd just buy some from the Pakistanis

So what's your solution to Iran then?


Pretty much.

In my opinion, Iran must not, under any circumstances, be able to acquire a nuclear weapon, as it would ignite a nuclear arms race in the region, possibly between more than the two obvious powers: Iran and Saudi Arabia.

With Egypt distancing itself from the United States, how will it react? A nuclear weapon would become essential if any of the current regional powers wished to remain in the category, and thus it isn't far-fetched to imagine a nuclear Turkey.

That's four potential nuclear states, with two dead certs, in the Middle East joining Israel. What happens if we witness another Iranian or Egyptian revolution? Or a credible Arab Spring makes its way into the Kingdom, the birthplace of Salafism? Who takes power? What's their agenda? What happens to the nuclear weapons?

The world becomes slightly more ****ed up knowing that a bunch of theocratic loonies both have an apocalyptic weapon - and, in theory, neither side will be afraid to use it because they were given the OK by their god.
(edited 9 years ago)
Reply 12
Original post by Stalin
Pretty much.

In my opinion, Iran must not, under any circumstances, be able to acquire a nuclear weapon, as it would ignite a nuclear arms race in the region, possibly between more than the two obvious powers: Iran and Saudi Arabia.

With Egypt distancing itself from the United States, how will it react? A nuclear weapon would become essential if any of the current regional powers wished to remain in the category, and thus it isn't far-fetched to imagine a nuclear Turkey.

That's four potential nuclear states, with two dead certs, in the Middle East joining Israel. What happens if we witness another Iranian or Egyptian revolution? Or a credible Arab Spring makes its way into the Kingdom, the birthplace of Salafism? Who takes power? What's their agenda? What happens to the nuclear weapons?

The world becomes slightly more ****ed up knowing that a bunch of theocratic loonies both have an apocalyptic weapon - and, in theory, neither side will be afraid to use it because they were given the OK by their god.


But then what do you do if the current path does not work? I fully understand wanting to stop Iran gaining an nuke, I'm just not convinced there are many ways to do it. Strikes will merely push the program back a few years if that. Some of the Iranian nuclear facilities may well require a tactical nuke just to ensure their destruction, depending on how much faith Israel has in the bunker busters they brought from the US recently.

Then you have a torn up Middle East anyway. I don't really see a credible path if the current one does not work, unless you want a full scale invasion of Iran. That would no doubt solve the issue, and create Iraq 2.0, the much more expensive and gritty sequel.
(edited 9 years ago)
Original post by Aj12
But then what do you do if the current path does not work? I fully understand wanting to stop Iran gaining an nuke, I'm just not convinced there are many ways to do it. Strikes will merely push the program back a few years if that. Some of the Iranian nuclear facilities may well require a tactical nuke just to ensure their destruction, depending on how much faith Israel has in the bunker busters they brought from the US recently.

Then you have a torn up Middle East anyway. I don't really see a credible path if the current one does not work, unless you want a full scale invasion of Iran. That would no doubt solve the issue, and create Iraq 2.0, the much more expensive and gritty sequel.


None of the nuclear countries - even Russia whom many believe is a supporter of Tehran's ambitions - want a nuclear Iran, precisely because they don't want a nuclear arms race in the region, so at least there is unity among the great powers. With this is mind, it is impossible for Iran to achieve its aims, because as long as a resolution in the Security Council is viable, it won't be vetoed.

Sanctions and consequent isolation would be a start. I agree, though, strikes would only push the programme underground, and an invasion has Iraq 2.0 written all over it as the Shiites in Iraq would pour across the border; however, the population cannot be compared to that of Iraq's, as they're generally more progressive and Iran isn't nearly as sectarian as its neighbour, ergo if regime change was the last remaining option between the status quo in the region and a nuclear arms race, it would have to and has the potential to come from within.

We've witnessed how lethal social media can be in the right hands; one in three Iranians have access to the internet, second in the region only to the Gulf States (and that's the known internet users, there are so many whom cannot be traced). Bear in mind more than half of the population is under the age of 35. Let that sink in.
(edited 9 years ago)
Reply 14
Original post by viddy9
Of course not. Such a strike would be criminally insane. There's very little, if any, evidence that Iran are trying to develop nuclear weapons, and if the United States really wanted to prevent them from attaining them, they could vote for the non-proliferation treaty to be enforced, but that would mean that their ally, Israel, would have to give up their nuclear weapons as well.

It would lead to a lot of unnecessary death and destruction and, as I said, there's virtually no evidence that Iran want to develop nuclear weapons. Negotiations are currently in progress, anyway.

Furthermore, it's Netanyahu who advocates it, and he's certainly criminally insane. Even the United States are starting to get sick of his antics and his attempts to undermine the negotiations with Iran. He's a pathetic warmonger.


I think Israel's argument for them having nuclear weapons is that if they did not they would not exist and as a liberal democracy it is less dangerous for them to have them.

I would agree with a preemptive strike if there was clear evidence that Iran was pursuing a nuclear weapon.

I think there is quite a bit of opposition to Netanyahu even in Israel so maybe the best to hope for is more peace inclined leaders of both the Palestinian territories and Israel.
Reply 15
Original post by jammy4041
No. It's not even an option.

1. Iran are useful allies, in the war on terror and against ISIS. We need to have at least a working relationship with Iran.
2. A pre-emptive strike on Iran would set off a significant war in the Middle East. And one, which would have the potential to go nuclear, very quickly.
3. No one nation has the right to nuclear weapons above all nations. Even if we disagree with the idea of a nuclear, and lets beat about the bush, that's a terrifying prospect, it should equally be abhorrant that Israel has many more nuclear weapons than Iran does, and refuses to comply with international law.
4. Iran have a more reasonable government than they did just two years ago.


1. Would an alliance with Iran not sacrifice the current alliance with Saudi Arabia. I believe Saudi Arabia are far more beneficial to the west in terms of an alliance, even if we have to ignore the nature of the state.

2. I think it would have to be balanced decision. If we did not strike and there was evidence of an ambition for nuclear weapons, can we risk a theocracy having a nuke?

3. Completely disagree. Of course Britain, a liberal democracy which respects human rights, has more of a right to nuclear weapons than a theocracy that hangs people because they are gay.
Reply 16
I just want to make abundantly clear that I do not support preemptive strikes to 'bring democracy' to Iran, but I do not think that a situation where we have a theocracy with a nuke in the most unstable region in the world is safe or desirable.
The important point to make here is a nuclear Iran cannot be tolerated. If they were in the final stage of building a nuke then we must stop them at all costs.

The second point to make though is that ISIS have presented us with an opportunity in that its paved a path towards relations with Iran. What we we need to do is show them the benefits of complying with the west.

So yes if it gets that bad.. But not now. Indeed in the best case scenario we might get access to some of that black gold.

...

Can somebody explain why they view Iranians as more progressive than Iraqi's. Before ISIS the general perception was that Shia's are far nuttier than Sunni's.
I think israel need to give up their nuclear weapons and stop defying international law by committing war crimes before even thinking of denying iran the right to nuclear power.
Original post by Rakas21
The important point to make here is a nuclear Iran cannot be tolerated. If they were in the final stage of building a nuke then we must stop them at all costs.

The second point to make though is that ISIS have presented us with an opportunity in that its paved a path towards relations with Iran. What we we need to do is show them the benefits of complying with the west.

So yes if it gets that bad.. But not now. Indeed in the best case scenario we might get access to some of that black gold.

...

Can somebody explain why they view Iranians as more progressive than Iraqi's. Before ISIS the general perception was that Shia's are far nuttier than Sunni's.


shiahs don't beleive in shariah law until the messiah comes. Look at my post about christians in lebanoun supporting the shia militia group Hezbollah.

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