30 year political cycle? Watch

MALIK HAMID
Badges: 1
Rep:
?
#1
Report Thread starter 4 years ago
#1
I have been thinking a lot recently about how there seem to be three 'types' of decade which constantly rotate.

Those which are especially liberal, for example the 1900s, 1930s, 1960s, 1990s.

Those which contain a major period or periods of warfare, for example the 1910s, 1940s, 1970s, 2000s.

Those which are especially conservative, for example the 1920s, 1950s, 1980s, 2010s.

I'm not claiming that all of the decades fit the pattern perfectly, but to me it seems that there is a clear pattern. With warfare in particular, there have of course been wars in every decade. But I would argue that WW1, WW2, the Vietnam war, and the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq have probably been the largest and most influential of the 20th and early 21st centuries in the Western world, all of which have been ~30 years apart.

Why do you think this sequence occurs?

I was thinking that the wars are maybe the pace-setters, each time damaging the economy. Then being followed by a decade of disciplined, conservative recovery, and a decade long liberal reaction against the constraint of the previous decade. By this point the worst parts of the war have faded in the memories of leaders, and we have a new generation of young soldiers who are happy to go and have 'their turn'.

Maybe the fact that one human generation is about 30 years also plays a part, with children being influenced by the views of their parents who are 30 years older.

I'm just interested to hear what people think about this really!
0
reply
DJKL
Badges: 17
Rep:
?
#2
Report 4 years ago
#2
Not convinced by your war cycle, yes 1910s, 1940s but the others are somewhat local.

After all not all of the West takes part in the others, you omit the first Gulf War etc.

The war cycle only really works by somewhat arbitrary decisions re what qualifies and what does not and not sure why Vietnam war is only considered re the 1970s, it extended back to the 1950s.
0
reply
MatureStudent36
Badges: 3
Rep:
?
#3
Report 4 years ago
#3
Probably linked with economic cycles.

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Business_cycle

Or this one.

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kondratiev_wave

A good book worth reading is global shift by peter Dickens. It's an economics book but impacts on histiry as well.

for wars, read this book.

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_History_of_Warfare
0
reply
MatureStudent36
Badges: 3
Rep:
?
#4
Report 4 years ago
#4
(Original post by MALIK HAMID)
I have been thinking a lot recently about how there seem to be three 'types' of decade which constantly rotate.

Those which are especially liberal, for example the 1900s, 1930s, 1960s, 1990s.

Those which contain a major period or periods of warfare, for example the 1910s, 1940s, 1970s, 2000s.

Those which are especially conservative, for example the 1920s, 1950s, 1980s, 2010s.

I'm not claiming that all of the decades fit the pattern perfectly, but to me it seems that there is a clear pattern. With warfare in particular, there have of course been wars in every decade. But I would argue that WW1, WW2, the Vietnam war, and the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq have probably been the largest and most influential of the 20th and early 21st centuries in the Western world, all of which have been ~30 years apart.

Why do you think this sequence occurs?

I was thinking that the wars are maybe the pace-setters, each time damaging the economy. Then being followed by a decade of disciplined, conservative recovery, and a decade long liberal reaction against the constraint of the previous decade. By this point the worst parts of the war have faded in the memories of leaders, and we have a new generation of young soldiers who are happy to go and have 'their turn'.

Maybe the fact that one human generation is about 30 years also plays a part, with children being influenced by the views of their parents who are 30 years older.

I'm just interested to hear what people think about this really!
See below
0
reply
kuu
Badges: 6
Rep:
?
#5
Report 4 years ago
#5
I believe that most things in the (human) world do happen cyclically, and a major reason for that is generational change, as you mentioned. However, I don't really think that these cycles can be turned into any scientifically sound sequences or hypotheses. There's not much logic in human behaviour, it cannot really be predicted on such a large scale. Anyway, events happen in different rhythm in different places. For example, developing countries are currently going through some changes that developed countries underwent decades ago. The world is much too complex to pin down like that.

And anyway, I think your examples are a bit off, further proving that this theory is based mostly on assumption and generalisation. I don't see how the 1920s were conservative and the 1930s liberal, for example. In the US, Paris and Berlin, the 20s were a famous "golden age" of economical growth and liberal urban culture. In 1929 the NY stock crash marked the beginning of the "great depression", which lasted until the beginning of the second World War. So if anything, I'd categorise these two decades the other way round - even though I think any categorisation of a whole decade is kind of pointless, since it's way too simplified. Things are never that black and white. Also, I don't think there are any marked "decades of warfare", save maybe the periods of the World Wars. At almost any time in history, there's at least one, probably even multiple, armed conflicts happening somewhere in the world. If only it were only once in 30 years.
0
reply
The_Mighty_Bush
Badges: 3
Rep:
?
#6
Report 4 years ago
#6
(Original post by MALIK HAMID)
I was thinking that the wars are maybe the pace-setters, each time damaging the economy. Then being followed by a decade of disciplined, conservative recovery, and a decade long liberal reaction against the constraint of the previous decade. By this point the worst parts of the war have faded in the memories of leaders, and we have a new generation of young soldiers who are happy to go and have 'their turn'.
Do you really think this is an adequate explanation of the reasons that wars arise?

Normal people have absolutely no influence on why or how war starts.
0
reply
X

Quick Reply

Attached files
Write a reply...
Reply
new posts
Latest
My Feed

See more of what you like on
The Student Room

You can personalise what you see on TSR. Tell us a little about yourself to get started.

Personalise

Where do you need more help?

Which Uni should I go to? (112)
17.55%
How successful will I become if I take my planned subjects? (68)
10.66%
How happy will I be if I take this career? (110)
17.24%
How do I achieve my dream Uni placement? (93)
14.58%
What should I study to achieve my dream career? (63)
9.87%
How can I be the best version of myself? (192)
30.09%

Watched Threads

View All