Kingmaker 2.0 - What the LabCons are REALLY scared of! Watch

Davij038
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Mr Clegg has come under a lot of political flack in the last 5 years, for being a filthy Tory enabler from the labour press and by being a Radical Marxist from the Tory press. This is to be naturally expected when a centrist third party comes along and challenges the red/blue duopoly of power. Attacks have recently been turned up a notch with the Lib Dems often being dismissed- certainly national polls back up the assertion that the time of the Lib Dems is over. Except it isn't. It is my belief that the Red and Blue Teams are utterly terrified of Clegg again being kingmaker in 2015, where we are in a very different position to 2010.

In 2010- there was a huge recession going on and the country was desperate for stable government. Many people did not think that a coalition government would not be stable. Additionally, Labour had given up (Apart from the highly unpopular G. Brown.) and the Tories, whilst not winning outright had clearly beaten Labour. A LabLib pact (Traditionally the favoured option) would not have been tenable as it would have acquired the support of the nationalists and would essentially be the lib dems propping up a unpopular PM (whether or not the criticism of GBrown was deserved I'll leave to you).

Now, roll on to 2015:

A hung parliament is almost certain. A Minority government would be untenable to both Labour and the Conservatives. It is a safe bet that the most likley result will show that the era of FPTP is now over and that the UK for better or worse is now a multi party system. There are currently problems of legitimating the government concerning the number of non voters- it has been shown that we could be ruled by a majority government that has secured less than 30% of the vote.

A coalition then is what I think will be the most desired outcome. Picture something like a result of this-

Additionally, the Lib Dems are the only party that can damage the Tories AND labour. UKIP can only realistically form a coalition with the Tories. The others only with Labour.


Lab 270-80
Con 270-80
LD 40-50

Clegg will effectively be Kingmaker again, although unlike 2010 he will have a real choice AND will not have the storm of the recession to overly worry about. Lets examine the two scenarios and what it would lead to:

1: Conservative.

If Cameron survives not winning outright, he will be desperate. The first thing he will do to save him and his party will be to get the referendum over with. Although risky, the referendum (To stay in!) Could be won. If Cameron can get that then short ofdirectly bringing in PR Completely the Libs can reasonably expect a huge array of concessions from the Tories. The Lessons on the AV affair have been learnt: Clegg is going to be playing hard ball, putting the referendum up to ransom...Clegg might have even be tempted to pay Cameron's 'betrayal' over the AV back- Blocking the referendum would do considerable damage to the Tories. Expect Constitutional reform, an elected upper chamber (Unless labour block it again), another lib-dem cabinet post (Imagine Norman baker as Home Secretary!)

2: Labour

A Lib dem coalition would also be hugely damaging to Labour. UNITE the union has promised to severely cut funds if not separate completely from Labour. Labour will be between a rock and a hard place-going back is not an option. Ed will want to keep his pledge on tuition fees (stupid policy that it is) and could well grant extra concessions- or the Lib dems can refuse to budge and lose Miliband face, putting him in Cleggs shoes. After having mercilessly attacked the coalition from the start Miliband has now also set himself up to making excuses as too why he has teamed up with Clegg after boasting about a majority. This may be why he's trying to oust Clegg in Hallam, a desperate attempt.
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Quady
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(Original post by Davij038)
Lab 270-80
Con 270-80
LD 40-50
Your Lib Dem forecast is too high. At the high end of 50 you're suggesting they'd only lose eight seats, which seems implausable.

30 on a good day.

Given the SNP won't go Tory, Labour can easily form a Government without the Lib Dems.

Out of interest, how many seats did you think they'd win last time?

Edit
Also I don't think suggesting the Lib Dems could be 'Kingmaker' again, will win them any votes...
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Davij038
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(Original post by Quady)
Your Lib Dem forecast is too high. At the high end of 50 you're suggesting they'd only lose eight seats, which seems implausable.

30 on a good day.

Given the SNP won't go Tory, Labour can easily form a Government without the Lib Dems.

Out of interest, how many seats did you think they'd win last time?

Edit
Also I don't think suggesting the Lib Dems could be 'Kingmaker' again, will win them any votes...

(Edits suggestion; I'm not trying to sell the Lib Dems here, (At least in this post)

As I've said before, a SNP coalition would be too risky for Labour, not to mention the bad blood between them. Labour would have lost seats to the SNP and its English seats will not take kindly to Sturgeon as DPM if it means that Scotland gets better treatment.

I wasn't that knowledgeable of politics in 2010 and didn't make any predictions as such, although I knew Brown would be Toast. Most of the pools for 2010 were completely off the mark I seem to recall; the most accurate pollster then is now predicting that the Libs will retain 48:

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/...ion-prediction

Nationally, the lib dem vote has fallen. Although not good, what matters is that the vote holds in Lib Dem seats. Despite some obvious lost causes in super marginal labour seats, the lib dems should be able to hold the majority.

In scotland, mpost lib dem seats have a fair Toy vote as opposed to Labour seats- I predict a strong surge of tactical voting could save the lib dems.

The real problem for labour in scotland is that most of Labour campaigned for Yes.

That being said I still am skeptical as to the predicted gains of the SNP- Whilst its likely they may double or even triple their seats, I cant see them gaining more than 40 at the very most.
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Davij038
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I should also add that unless The Lib Dems win outright, Clegg will almost certainly be stepping down as leader in the next three years.
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username878267
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Clegg will lose his own seat.
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Quady
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(Original post by Davij038)
(Edits suggestion; I'm not trying to sell the Lib Dems here, (At least in this post)

As I've said before, a SNP coalition would be too risky for Labour, not to mention the bad blood between them. Labour would have lost seats to the SNP and its English seats will not take kindly to Sturgeon as DPM if it means that Scotland gets better treatment.

I wasn't that knowledgeable of politics in 2010 and didn't make any predictions as such, although I knew Brown would be Toast. Most of the pools for 2010 were completely off the mark I seem to recall; the most accurate pollster then is now predicting that the Libs will retain 48:

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/...ion-prediction

Nationally, the lib dem vote has fallen. Although not good, what matters is that the vote holds in Lib Dem seats. Despite some obvious lost causes in super marginal labour seats, the lib dems should be able to hold the majority.

In scotland, mpost lib dem seats have a fair Toy vote as opposed to Labour seats- I predict a strong surge of tactical voting could save the lib dems.

The real problem for labour in scotland is that most of Labour campaigned for Yes.

That being said I still am skeptical as to the predicted gains of the SNP- Whilst its likely they may double or even triple their seats, I cant see them gaining more than 40 at the very most.
Well it doesn't sound like the SNP would do a coalition, just supply and confidence. As such Nicola wouldn't be deputy. Why are you skeptical? Given the amount they increased their polling between the 2010 General and the 2011 Scottish election, then again since 2011. I doubt they'd hit 40, but 30-35 pretty much for sure, increasing their seats fivefold.

I think trying to hold up the Lib Dem vote in their seats is fighting against the tide somewhat.

Its not just super marginals against Labour either, I'd be suprised if Dorset Mid, Solilhull, Newquay, Sutton, Chippenham and Wells didn't go Tory, Perhaps Cornwall North, Cheadle and Eastbourne too. Gordon is almost certainly going to go SNP.
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Davij038
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(Original post by Quady)
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There is a significant pro union moment in Scotland desperate to stop the SNP encouraging tactical voting. Where there are strong tory votes they are likley to switch to whoever has the best chance of stopping the SNP- most labour seats don't have a strong Tory vote hence their weakness.

As per the other seats- disagree - ukip plus greens damage labour and the Tories more than the lib dems, although the lib dems have list some to Labour. However, it's been confirmed that young and female Tories are being drawn into the liberal fold. A strong house affect, FPTP and low turn out (particularly if students) should save them.

Most non politics students shun politics in my experience and the biggest student vote benefits the greens.
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Quady
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(Original post by Davij038)
There is a significant pro union moment in Scotland desperate to stop the SNP encouraging tactical voting. Where there are strong tory votes they are likley to switch to whoever has the best chance of stopping the SNP- most labour seats don't have a strong Tory vote hence their weakness.

As per the other seats- disagree - ukip plus greens damage labour and the Tories more than the lib dems, although the lib dems have list some to Labour. However, it's been confirmed that young and female Tories are being drawn into the liberal fold. A strong house affect, FPTP and low turn out (particularly if students) should save them.

Most non politics students shun politics in my experience and the biggest student vote benefits the greens.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotlan...itics-31738358
45% voted yes - so its unlikely they will be pro union
IMHO Tory voters are likely to support the SNP to keep Labour out.

Lets agree to disagree on the rest until polling day
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Davij038
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(Original post by Quady)
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The Tories would generally back liberals though.

But yes, we will have to see.
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Rakas21
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(Original post by Davij038)
Mr Clegg has come under a lot of political flack in the last 5 years, for being a filthy Tory enabler from the labour press and by being a Radical Marxist from the Tory press. This is to be naturally expected when a centrist third party comes along and challenges the red/blue duopoly of power. Attacks have recently been turned up a notch with the Lib Dems often being dismissed- certainly national polls back up the assertion that the time of the Lib Dems is over. Except it isn't. It is my belief that the Red and Blue Teams are utterly terrified of Clegg again being kingmaker in 2015, where we are in a very different position to 2010.

In 2010- there was a huge recession going on and the country was desperate for stable government. Many people did not think that a coalition government would not be stable. Additionally, Labour had given up (Apart from the highly unpopular G. Brown.) and the Tories, whilst not winning outright had clearly beaten Labour. A LabLib pact (Traditionally the favoured option) would not have been tenable as it would have acquired the support of the nationalists and would essentially be the lib dems propping up a unpopular PM (whether or not the criticism of GBrown was deserved I'll leave to you).

Now, roll on to 2015:

A hung parliament is almost certain. A Minority government would be untenable to both Labour and the Conservatives. It is a safe bet that the most likley result will show that the era of FPTP is now over and that the UK for better or worse is now a multi party system. There are currently problems of legitimating the government concerning the number of non voters- it has been shown that we could be ruled by a majority government that has secured less than 30% of the vote.

A coalition then is what I think will be the most desired outcome. Picture something like a result of this-

Additionally, the Lib Dems are the only party that can damage the Tories AND labour. UKIP can only realistically form a coalition with the Tories. The others only with Labour.


Lab 270-80
Con 270-80
LD 40-50

Clegg will effectively be Kingmaker again, although unlike 2010 he will have a real choice AND will not have the storm of the recession to overly worry about. Lets examine the two scenarios and what it would lead to:

1: Conservative.

If Cameron survives not winning outright, he will be desperate. The first thing he will do to save him and his party will be to get the referendum over with. Although risky, the referendum (To stay in!) Could be won. If Cameron can get that then short ofdirectly bringing in PR Completely the Libs can reasonably expect a huge array of concessions from the Tories. The Lessons on the AV affair have been learnt: Clegg is going to be playing hard ball, putting the referendum up to ransom...Clegg might have even be tempted to pay Cameron's 'betrayal' over the AV back- Blocking the referendum would do considerable damage to the Tories. Expect Constitutional reform, an elected upper chamber (Unless labour block it again), another lib-dem cabinet post (Imagine Norman baker as Home Secretary!)

2: Labour

A Lib dem coalition would also be hugely damaging to Labour. UNITE the union has promised to severely cut funds if not separate completely from Labour. Labour will be between a rock and a hard place-going back is not an option. Ed will want to keep his pledge on tuition fees (stupid policy that it is) and could well grant extra concessions- or the Lib dems can refuse to budge and lose Miliband face, putting him in Cleggs shoes. After having mercilessly attacked the coalition from the start Miliband has now also set himself up to making excuses as too why he has teamed up with Clegg after boasting about a majority. This may be why he's trying to oust Clegg in Hallam, a desperate attempt.
I don't really buy your premise.

For a start it's highly unlikely that any party will have less than 30% of the vote, all polling movements since November have been up.

Secondly, your right to say that the parties would fear a demand for PR but there's not a chance that the Tories will give it to you. If the Tories win then there will be a trade (Lords reform for the EU referendum). Labour may be desperate enough though given that they'll be in bed with nationalists. The Clegg-Cameron preference is definitely to get another 2 party coalition though it's doubtful that the Tory back benches would let that one fly easily, a number of them seem to consider anything short of a majority as an 'impure' government.
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Gordon1985
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[QUOTE=Davij038;54065187
In scotland, mpost lib dem seats have a fair Toy vote as opposed to Labour seats- I predict a strong surge of tactical voting could save the lib dems.

The real problem for labour in scotland is that most of Labour campaigned for Yes.

That being said I still am skeptical as to the predicted gains of the SNP- Whilst its likely they may double or even triple their seats, I cant see them gaining more than 40 at the very most.[/QUOTE]

The Lib Dems have 11 of their 57 seats in Scotland. They'll be doing extremely well to hold on to 3 of those seats. Orkeny and Shetland should stay LD but the other 10 will be very difficult to hold according to the Ashcroft constituency (not national) polling.

You're right to be skeptical about the 50+ seats being predicted for the SNP. That won't happen. But it'll be the huge Labour majorities which manage to stave off the SNP surge, not the Lib Dems.

Remember how utterly whitewashed the Lib Dems were in Scotland in 2011.
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Davij038
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(Original post by Gordon1985)
The Lib Dems have 11 of their 57 seats in Scotland. They'll be doing extremely well to hold on to 3 of those seats. Orkeny and Shetland should stay LD but the other 10 will be very difficult to hold according to the Ashcroft constituency (not national) polling.

You're right to be skeptical about the 50+ seats being predicted for the SNP. That won't happen. But it'll be the huge Labour majorities which manage to stave off the SNP surge, not the Lib Dems.

Remember how utterly whitewashed the Lib Dems were in Scotland in 2011.
The huge labour majorities that voted yes and witnessed Labour campaigning with Tories would see it differently.

As I have said previously polling is fallible/ it's funny that you say the lib dems will load their seats because Ashcroft said so, but he's off when he says the same about labour who he has down to lose at least 35 to the SNP.
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Gordon1985
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(Original post by Davij038)
The huge labour majorities that voted yes and witnessed Labour campaigning with Tories would see it differently.

As I have said previously polling is fallible/ it's funny that you say the lib dems will load their seats because Ashcroft said so, but he's off when he says the same about labour who he has down to lose at least 35 to the SNP.
Polls say that around 30% of Labour voters voted yes for a start.

There are many seats in Scotland where Labour have 50-60% of the votes. Ashcroft polling has the SNP taking a lot of these seats very narrowly. Even a small swing back to Labour before polling day will see a lot of these seats saved for Labour. That's what I'm taking into a account, not the accuracy of the polls.

Even some relatively safe LD seats in Scotland has the SNP comfortably ahead in the polls. The SNP will take a huge number of votes from Labour in this election, but as we saw in 2011 and as polling suggests, the Lib Dem vote is even way more vulnerable to the SNP than the Labour vote is.

A couple of the Highland seats are obviously winnable for the Lib Dems. Ashcroft has Charles Kenndey and Danny Alexander behind but not by a huge amount. Small swings from the SNP to Labour or the LDs could save their seats. Anything south of the Highlands and Islands looks lost for the LDs at the moment.
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LordMarmalade
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(Original post by Davij038)
Labour campaigning with Tories would see it differently.
What does that even mean? Does that mean if the Tories are on one side of an issue, you have to take the other side no matter what, in order to stay "pure"?

Does it mean all nationalists must oppose gay marriage because Tories are for it? Does it mean the SNP are tainted for working closely with the Tories during their 2007-2011 minority government?

Your proposition is fatuous and politically juvenile, especially coming from a party that has been in ruddy government with the Tories for the last 5 years
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Davij038
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(Original post by LordMarmalade)
What does that even mean? Does that mean if the Tories are on one side of an issue, you have to take the other side no matter what, in order to stay "pure"?

Does it mean all nationalists must oppose gay marriage because Tories are for it? Does it mean the SNP are tainted for working closely with the Tories during their 2007-2011 minority government?

Your proposition is fatuous and politically juvenile, especially coming from a party that has been in ruddy government with the Tories for the last 5 years
This isn't my view, it's the vast majority of the SNPs.
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LordMarmalade
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(Original post by Davij038)
This isn't my view, it's the vast majority of the SNPs.
Which you appear happy to parrot. Typical, desperate Lib Dem trying to jump on the nationalist bandwagon
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Davij038
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(Original post by LordMarmalade)
Which you appear happy to parrot. Typical, desperate Lib Dem trying to jump on the nationalist bandwagon
When you are discussing politicsl trends sometimes you have to grasp what the other side as it were is thinking. As a lib dem it would indeed be hypocritical of me to say such things, however if I'm looking at it from the position of somebody who voted yes to independence (therefore inclined to vote SNP,) I'm not.

Is that really such a hard concept for you?
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Quady
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(Original post by Davij038)
This isn't my view, it's the vast majority of the SNPs.
SNPs don't really matter. Just floating voters.
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Davij038
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(Original post by Quady)
SNPs don't really matter. Just floating voters.
Really? How so?
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Gordon1985
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(Original post by Davij038)
This isn't my view, it's the vast majority of the SNPs.
Labour are being criticised for this but let's remember. The SNP aren't polling much higher than they were at the 2011 Scottish parliament elections, long before the referendum.

The process of the Scottish electorate decoupling from the Labour party has been going on for a number of years. What we've been seeing at Scottish elections has finally switched over to WM elections.

For many it wasn't the stance Labour took but their actions and tone during the referendum that's put them off the party.
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