Prediction: Scotland to leave UK by 2020

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#Ridwan
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#1
Report Thread starter 6 years ago
#1
I very rarely make political predictions, but having looked at the polls and seat projections ahead of the election I can see two feasible outcomes. Both these outcomes will put the future of the United Kingdom under its biggest threat ever.

First of all, no party is winning a majority in this one. A hung parliament looks inevitable.

Two, the SNP are going to win about twice as many seats as the Lib Dems, with the Tories and Labour winning roughly the same number of seats each. UKIP will be lucky to get half a dozen seats. Plaid/Greens/the NI parties cannot win seats in large enough numbers to make an impact.

This will lead to two possible governments:

1) A Tory/Labour (and possibly Lib Dem) grand coalition that will massively alienate the SNP and lead to an even stronger nationalism in Scotland, culminating in another referendum.

2) A Labour (or Labour/LD) minority government that will need to rely on SNP support to get legislation through. This may be preceded by a Tory minority govt or Tory/LD minority coalition, but with no support from the SNP they will not be able to get any legislation through. The SNP will hold the balance of power, leading to mass anti-Scottish sentiment in England which were be reciprocated on the other side of the border. The Scots will demand another referendum and this time they will probably vote Yes.

I think another referendum is a near certainty within the next five years, and a Yes vote more likely than last time.

Would be interested to hear your thoughts.
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Okorange
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#2
Report 6 years ago
#2
Nawwwwww
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miguapa
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#3
Report 6 years ago
#3
not bothred if it did.

There's no reason why the UK shouldn't end bar "history" or "we're better off together" or "Scotland will lose world power!" and other ****.
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L i b
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#4
Report 6 years ago
#4
(Original post by #Ridwan)
2) A Labour (or Labour/LD) minority government that will need to rely on SNP support to get legislation through. This may be preceded by a Tory minority govt or Tory/LD minority coalition, but with no support from the SNP they will not be able to get any legislation through. The SNP will hold the balance of power, leading to mass anti-Scottish sentiment in England which were be reciprocated on the other side of the border. The Scots will demand another referendum and this time they will probably vote Yes.

I think another referendum is a near certainty within the next five years, and a Yes vote more likely than last time.

Would be interested to hear your thoughts.
"The Scots" cannot "demand" a referendum. The UK Parliament has the sole right to grant a referendum, which it did last time. It did it on the very reasonable understanding that this was a one-off, or at the very least a once-in-a-generation event. There is no reasonable case for holding another.

That said, I don't think unionists need be too concerned about another referendum. The economic arguments are even more pressing now than they were - and many of the warnings they gave (such as on oil price volatility) have been vindicated.

If the Conservatives get in, they'll likely govern as a minority. If Labour get in, they'll likely rely on SNP votes to a degree - but with the implicit threat that failing to vote with them on confidence, supply and key legislation will bring the government down. Many in Scotland remember 1979, the SNP bringing down the Labour government and the ensuing rise of Thatcherism - being associated with that again could kill the SNP.
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L i b
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#5
Report 6 years ago
#5
(Original post by miguapa)
not bothred if it did.

There's no reason why the UK shouldn't end bar "history" or "we're better off together" or "Scotland will lose world power!" and other ****.
Yeah, because the population being "better off" is clearly such a terrible argument for doing something. :rolleyes:
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miguapa
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#6
Report 6 years ago
#6
they're weak reasons for being better off.....it's not the 18th century.
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