Davij038
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The Liberal Democrats have warned that, with a hung parliament being the most likely result, one possible outcome could be that of 'Blukip'- a coalition between the Tories, DUP and Ukip, as well as a Labour SNP coalition. If any of these outcomes worry you, you should vote LibDem to keep the Government in the Rational Center.

A mock Blukip website is here: It is the stuff of a number of TSR users dreams!: I'm looking at you Billydisco!

http://www.blukip.org/people
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Quady
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Surely only if you're in a Lib Dem likely consituencey?

How would a Lib Dem/Labour coalition look different to a Labour minority Government?
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Davij038
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(Original post by Quady)
Surely only if you're in a Lib Dem likely consituencey?
Well, yes...


How would a Lib Dem/Labour coalition look different to a Labour minority Government?
Well it would be more stable for a start.

Also the cost of the Coalition would be that the main commitments of the LDs be met, (IE the Tax Cuts on the poorest, Mental Health reform ETC) which wouldn't be there in a labour minority. Also, I'd feel safer with Alexander and Cable playing a role in the Economy than it being left solely in the hands of Balls.
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The two eds
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(Original post by Davij038)
The Liberal Democrats have warned that, with a hung parliament being the most likely result, one possible outcome could be that of 'Blukip'- a coalition between the Tories, DUP and Ukip, as well as a Labour SNP coalition. If any of these outcomes worry you, you should vote LibDem to keep the Government in the Rational Center.

A mock Blukip website is here: It is the stuff of a number of TSR users dreams!: I'm looking at you Billydisco!

http://www.blukip.org/people
UKIP may well get the third highest share of the vote but because of first past the post system they will probably get no seats so how can they enter a coalition? It is predicted they will come second place in over 100 seats.

We will undoubtedly get a Labour/SNP/Plaid Cymru coalition, and maybe you can throw lib dems in there for a left wing rainbow coalition. In what world do you see Tories winning?
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rockrunride
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Haven't the Tories already ruled out a coalition with Ukip?
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SHallowvale
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I doubt that Bluekip will happen. Together UKIP and DUP are only set to win around 10 seats.

I think it'll be the SNP and the Lib Dems that will decide whether Labour or the Conservatives get in.
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Davij038
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(Original post by The two eds)
UKIP may well get the third highest share of the vote but because of first past the post system they will probably get no seats so how can they enter a coalition. It is predicted they will come second place in over 100 seats.

We will undoubtedly get a Labour/SNP/Plaid Cymru coalition, and maybe you can throw lib dems in there for a left wing rainbow coalition. In what world do you see Tories winning?
Well, Ukip will get at least one seat in Clacton. I think they can realistically have three seats and on a good day (for them) get five.

The Lib Dems have ruled out joining any coalition involving the Nationalists or UKIP (Although if it was a straight up contest between 'Blukip' and Lab/SNP/ Plaid I'd be pretty confident they'd go for confidence and supply to the latter)

I can see the Tories winning either the most votes or/ and the most seats. That may not be enough however.
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Davij038
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(Original post by rockrunride)
Haven't the Tories already ruled out a coalition with Ukip?
Labour have ruled out a coalition with the SNP too. Both are about as likely to happen I think. I think both would do though.
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Quady
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(Original post by Davij038)
Well, yes...




Well it would be more stable for a start.

Also the cost of the Coalition would be that the main commitments of the LDs be met, (IE the Tax Cuts on the poorest, Mental Health reform ETC) which wouldn't be there in a labour minority. Also, I'd feel safer with Alexander and Cable playing a role in the Economy than it being left solely in the hands of Balls.
Well given how few seats the opposition would have, I can't see why it would be all that unstable. I doubt Lib Dems would be voting for another election, let alone the SNP.

Well that depends on the outcome of the negotiations doesn't it? A deal might not be able to be done, in which case having more Lib Dem MPs just mean a weaker Government.
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The two eds
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(Original post by Davij038)
Well, Ukip will get at least one seat in Clacton. I think they can realistically have three seats and on a good day (for them) get five.

The Lib Dems have ruled out joining any coalition involving the Nationalists or UKIP (Although if it was a straight up contest between 'Blukip' and Lab/SNP/ Plaid I'd be pretty confident they'd go for confidence and supply to the latter)

I can see the Tories winning either the most votes or/ and the most seats. That may not be enough however.
All the polls suggest Labour will win and the other left wing parties will supply enough seats for a majority. What else needs to be said? Done and dusted. I do not see where the confusion is. Labour will get more seats and UKIP will get 0 but at best 1 in Clacton. Even Labour Representatives admit this.
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The two eds
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(Original post by Davij038)
Well, Ukip will get at least one seat in Clacton. I think they can realistically have three seats and on a good day (for them) get five.

The Lib Dems have ruled out joining any coalition involving the Nationalists or UKIP (Although if it was a straight up contest between 'Blukip' and Lab/SNP/ Plaid I'd be pretty confident they'd go for confidence and supply to the latter)

I can see the Tories winning either the most votes or/ and the most seats. That may not be enough however.
I must add by your predictions DUP will get at best 8 seats with UKIP 5 at best. So 13 seats. That will not serve the Tories well since they are 99.9% likely to get less seats than Labour and on the off chance they get a few more it will be meaningless since SNP will completely overshadow those 13 extra seats.

I beg you to explain how you believe the Tories can ever get into government again?
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Quady
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(Original post by The two eds)
All the polls suggest Labour will win
The Newsnight poll doesn't...
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The two eds
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(Original post by Quady)
The Newsnight poll doesn't...
That poll has no relevance seeing as it's sample and sample size is completely unreliable.
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ChaoticButterfly
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Vote lib dem: We stand for nothing.

I'm sorry but you just enabled a very right wing Tory party for the last 5 years. I hope you lot get wrecked.
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Quady
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(Original post by The two eds)
That poll has no relevance seeing as it's sample and sample size is completely unreliable.
OK, so which poll on a seat basis do you suggest?
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The two eds
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(Original post by Quady)
OK, so which poll on a seat basis do you suggest?
ICM or Yougov but tbh most are half decent.

But seriously do you know how many seats Tories would need to surpass a Labour/SNP/Plaid Cymru coalition? It is impossible for the tories to match it let alone beat it. This is a one horse race.
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scrotgrot
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(Original post by Quady)
OK, so which poll on a seat basis do you suggest?
No single nationwide poll is good enough when the margin of error is so much greater than the margin of victory. I have been following May2015's aggregate poll and Ashcroft is probably worth a look for some insights as that is constituency polling.

But it's def true that the Newsnight poll is the only one suggesting a Tory lead of any size or permanence whatsoever. I think they are factoring in shy Tories pretty hard.
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Quady
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(Original post by The two eds)
ICM or Yougov but tbh most are half decent.

But seriously do you know how many seats Tories would need to surpass a Labour/SNP/Plaid Cymru coalition? It is impossible for the tories to match it let alone beat it. This is a one horse race.
The Tories would never surpass that coalition, but neither Plaid nor the SNP will go into coalition so its a bit irrelavent.

Mind pointing me to the ICM seat prediction?
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The two eds
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(Original post by ChaoticButterfly)
Vote lib dem: We stand for nothing.

I'm sorry but you just enabled a very right wing Tory party for the last 5 years. I hope you lot get wrecked.
A very right wing Tory party? You can not be serious. Cameron and his cabinet are the most centre wing tory party in history. Blair was more right wing than cameron. The backbenchers are more likely further right but the Tory cabinet- pro EU, pro immigration, pro foreign aid, pro same sex marriage, pro 3 parent children, pro reducing military expenditure, pro free schools, pro islamification, anti grammar schools, anti fracking...I could go on. This tory party is the more left wing than right wing. Thatcher would be turning in her grave if she saw what the Tory party has become.
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The two eds
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(Original post by Quady)
The Tories would never surpass that coalition, but neither Plaid nor the SNP will go into coalition so its a bit irrelavent.

Mind pointing me to the ICM seat prediction?
You just admitted it yourself- "Tories would never surpass that coalition" and since that coalition is very much on the cards please tell me how you think the Tories stand any chance of winning this election?
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