Election forecast suggests UKIP will only win 1 seat, and it won't be Farage's Watch

Everglow
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(Original post by The Independent)
Nigel Farage is on course to fail in his bid to become South Thanet’s first Ukip MP and the party is expected to lose half its seats in the upcoming general, experts have predicted.

The Election Forecast website, run by three university election experts, has predicted Ukip will win just one seat in the poll on 7 May, it has been revealed by the Sun on Sunday.

The website, has said not only will Farage fail to wrestle the Kent seat away from the Tories, Tory defector Mark Reckless will lose his seat in Rochester and Stroud. That will only leave Douglas Carswell hanging on in Clacton-On-Sea.

In a extract from his memoir The Purple Revolution, published in the Daily Telegraph last month, Farage said if he did not win a seat in the commons he would resign as party leader as it was “frankly just not credible for [him] to continue to lead the party without a Westminster seat of [him] own.”

But he has come under fire in recent weeks, after it was alleged by the Mail on Sunday that he had suppressed an internal poll which showed him narrowly losing to Conservative candidate Craig Mackinlay.

This is a far cry of Farage’s boast at the end of last year that his party could scoop up to 40 Westminster seats.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk...-10187516.html

Very interesting. I can't say I'm upset by this forecast, but I know many will be. This is just the product of FPTP which makes it hugely difficult for parties like UKIP and the Greens to get seats.

Do you think this forecast is accurate? If so or if not, what are your thoughts on the matter?
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Aj12
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I cant see him resigning. He is ukip, it'll die without him.

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MagicNMedicine
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Will this be the end of FPTP as an electoral system.

If the Peoples Army of UKIP polls high numbers but then ends up with only 1 seat in Parliament then how will the Westminster elite keep the lid on the tide of popular anger about being unrepresented....especially if the Lib Dems after being reduced to barely any voters, manage to have 30 odd seats and a place in government??

Would the Westminster elite be willing to give the public a referendum on FPTP so that the British people can choose their representatives rather than a rigged electoral system to ensure that only the chosen parties can dominate...?
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tomfailinghelp
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(Original post by MagicNMedicine)
Would the Westminster elite be willing to give the public a referendum on FPTP so that the British people can choose their representatives rather than a rigged electoral system to ensure that only the chosen parties can dominate...?
We had one, we rejected it, etc.

I don't know whether to be pleased or disappointed? At least it won't be good for the right in this election.
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The two eds
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This election is minor, It is the 2020 election UKIP are targeting. They are relatively new on the major political stage so they got to make their ground base first. 2020 is where it really matters, this is just a beta.
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Europhile
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They'll win more than one seat. People are completely ignoring the shy UKIP factor which is predicted to be bigger than the shy Tory factor. Some people are going to be surprised.
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Swanbow
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(Original post by MagicNMedicine)
Will this be the end of FPTP as an electoral system.

If the Peoples Army of UKIP polls high numbers but then ends up with only 1 seat in Parliament then how will the Westminster elite keep the lid on the tide of popular anger about being unrepresented....especially if the Lib Dems after being reduced to barely any voters, manage to have 30 odd seats and a place in government??

Would the Westminster elite be willing to give the public a referendum on FPTP so that the British people can choose their representatives rather than a rigged electoral system to ensure that only the chosen parties can dominate...?
The Lib Dems should press whoever they decide to support after the election for a mixed members proportional representation system. Even 100 seats in the Commons being voted for regionally will shake up this absurd system we currently have.

I think UKIP will get either 4 or 5 seats at the next election. Absurd considering that their share of the national vote is going to be ahead of the Lib Dems and SNP. As much as I detest UKIP, those who vote for them deserve fairer representation in Parliament.
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Everglow
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(Original post by Swanbow)
The Lib Dems should press whoever they decide to support after the election for a mixed members proportional representation system. Even 100 seats in the Commons being voted for regionally will shake up this absurd system we currently have. .
How would that work? It would mess up FPTP altogether because of the way constituencies are divided. I don't know how you could take away 100 and have them voted for in some kind of PR method. The only way that could be done was if all constituencies were readjusted to cater for this change, but that would make constituencies much bigger and even less representative potentially. Not to mention trying to mix FPTP with PR is incredibly complex, not only in practice, but for actual voters too because everything will become quite complicated in a way it's never been before. Will that drive down voter turnouts? Very possibly.
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(Original post by Reluire)
How would that work? It would mess up FPTP altogether because of the way constituencies are divided. I don't know how you could take away 100 and have them voted for in some kind of PR method. The only way that could be done was if all constituencies were readjusted to cater for this change, but that would make constituencies much bigger and even less representative potentially. Not to mention trying to mix FPTP with PR is incredibly complex, not only in practice, but for actual voters too because everything will become quite complicated in a way it's never been before. Will that drive down voter turnouts? Very possibly.
Some boundary changes to make seats more competitive. The previous proposed boundary change looked at getting the number of seats down by 50, I'm sure that with some creativity you could get it down by another 50. Difficult yes, but you act like it is impossible. Then the 100 lost seats are replaced by 100 MPs elected proportionally via a regional list like the EU elections.

Mixing FPTP with PR is not incredibly complex. It is done by many countries, with a watered down form of it used in Scottish parliament elections, and another system used in Germany. You will get two slips at the election, one to elect the MP for your constituency and one to elect a party at a regional level. It would use the d'Hondt method that we use for European elections. If anything it would increase turnout as people who don't bother voting in safe seats would at least be able to effect the outcome of the additional seats at a regional level. You act as if the electorate are idiots, it would just be two ballots instead of one. You continue to tactically vote in your constituency, and vote for your preferred party regionally.
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Everglow
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(Original post by Swanbow)
Some boundary changes to make seats more competitive. The previous proposed boundary change looked at getting the number of seats down by 50, I'm sure that with some creativity you could get it down by another 50. Difficult yes, but you act like it is impossible. Then the 100 lost seats are replaced by 100 MPs elected proportionally via a regional list like the EU elections.

Mixing FPTP with PR is not incredibly complex. It is done by many countries, with a watered down form of it used in Scottish parliament elections, and another system used in Germany. You will get two slips at the election, one to elect the MP for your constituency and one to elect a party at a regional level. It would use the d'Hondt method that we use for European elections. If anything it would increase turnout as people who don't bother voting in safe seats would at least be able to effect the outcome of the additional seats at a regional level. You act as if the electorate are idiots, it would just be two ballots instead of one. You continue to tactically vote in your constituency, and vote for your preferred party regionally.
I don't think it will make them more competitive. In one or two constituencies perhaps, but most constituencies are surrounded by constituencies ruled by the same party. So even if you adjust the boundaries, safe seats will more often than not still be safe seats. It's not impossible, but I wouldn't say it was the best route of electoral form at all.

It is when all the UK's ever known is majoritarian politics. The complexity comes from the masses of money that have to be spent on this kind of reform. Where is that money going to come from? I'm aware most of Europe uses PR - but the situation is the same for them. If they wanted to reform to something like FPTP, that would be extremely expensive and time consuming for them as well. Reform in general is very difficult to successfully implement and keep budget effective. I like STV, which is what I assume you're referring to when you mention using the d'Hondt method, but I dislike AMS which is something along the lines of what you're advocating. It's needlessly complicated and I don't think hybrid systems are all that great in the first place as you just end up with watered down versions of each electoral system. Just because you and I are politically knowledgeable, that doesn't mean the electorate is as a whole. It might seem condescending on my part to say it, but our electorate isn't hugely politically aware and they like things simple. FPTP is easy to understand; anyone can understand it. PR systems use all kinds of calculation methods and quotas which are confusing enough for a lot of politics students, let alone the general public.
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Birkenhead
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(Original post by Swanbow)
The Lib Dems should press whoever they decide to support after the election for a mixed members proportional representation system. Even 100 seats in the Commons being voted for regionally will shake up this absurd system we currently have.
Agreed, and with the polling suggesting both main parties will be even more dependent on smaller parties like the Lib Dems than last time they'll have ample room for manoeuvre. If they don't secure at least one or two big policy pledges from the main party I'll be extremely ticked off because frankly I think they didn't push their hand hard enough in the negotiations in 2010.
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Jammy Duel
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(Original post by MagicNMedicine)
Will this be the end of FPTP as an electoral system.

If the Peoples Army of UKIP polls high numbers but then ends up with only 1 seat in Parliament then how will the Westminster elite keep the lid on the tide of popular anger about being unrepresented....especially if the Lib Dems after being reduced to barely any voters, manage to have 30 odd seats and a place in government??

Would the Westminster elite be willing to give the public a referendum on FPTP so that the British people can choose their representatives rather than a rigged electoral system to ensure that only the chosen parties can dominate...?
The lib dem comment is laughable, in all likelihood they will be, once again, "under represented"

As for the OP, not at all new news.

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Fullofsurprises
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Interesting poll OP. The YouGov NowCast panel currently gives UKIP 5 seats. It will be interesting to see which was correct on the night. :yep:
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Smug Life
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Really? I was thinking 3-5. We'll see.
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(Original post by The two eds)
This election is minor, It is the 2020 election UKIP are targeting. They are relatively new on the major political stage so they got to make their ground base first. 2020 is where it really matters, this is just a beta.
They aren't new at all. I remember our house getting a VHS from them in the post in '97. They've had a member in the lords since 1995 and had an MP in 2008...
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The two eds
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(Original post by Quady)
They aren't new at all. I remember our house getting a VHS from them in the post in '97. They've had a member in the lords since 1995 and had an MP in 2008...
I said new on the major political stage. In the sense they have overtook Lib dems for a higher share of the vote. The detail is in the word "Major". Of course they have always been around but every party has their breakthrough moment and UKIP only recently had theirs with a win the European elections last year especially.
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(Original post by Jammy Duel)
The lib dem comment is laughable, in all likelihood they will be, once again, "under represented"

As for the OP, not at all new news.

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Strongly agree and rep given. If they can hold in Eastleigh after their MP fiasco they can hold anywhere. They just need to focus on holding their current seats and a couple of winnable seats (Oxford west, Montgomeryshire) so the 9% that they're polling now shouldake up that. Ukip and the greens are far too spread out and their organisations a mess.

BoT Clacton will obv hold ukip. I think Farage will win but it will be a very painful victory with a tiny majority: that's all they'll get unless there's another defection. Rochester is 50/50 a lot of ukip voters have said they'll back tory 2015 and reckless isn't generally liked.

Labour are trying very hard to take out Caroline Lucas . Amusingly it'll probably be Tory voters tactical voting for her that will save her.

I
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barnetlad
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My prediction is 6 seats. A Blu-kip coalition will not happen though as the Tories if the largest party will talk with the DUP who may have 8 or 9.
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(Original post by The two eds)
I said new on the major political stage. In the sense they have overtook Lib dems for a higher share of the vote. The detail is in the word "Major". Of course they have always been around but every party has their breakthrough moment and UKIP only recently had theirs with a win the European elections last year especially.
Well lets see what vote share they get.
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(Original post by barnetlad)
My prediction is 6 seats. A Blu-kip coalition will not happen though as the Tories if the largest party will talk with the DUP who may have 8 or 9.
Which seats?

Why not a BluDkip coalition?
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