Tory voters, how do you feel about the Tories losing come May 7th? Watch

TheGuyReturns
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It's pretty much a certainty that the Tories and UKIP won't get enough votes between them to form a majority government...
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username1500433
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Bit too soon to speak considering it seems pretty much neck-and-neck at the moment and many recent opinion polls showing a Conservative lead.
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LibertyAnstead
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I feel as Tory as ever.
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TheGuyReturns
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(Original post by will_jg)
Bit too soon to speak considering it seems pretty much neck-and-neck at the moment and many recent opinion polls showing a Conservative lead.
Those "recent opinion polls" are a few anomalies in a sea of poll after poll showing Labour either equal to, or ahead of the Tories. Besides, the Tories need several more points than Labour to get the same number of seats. And even if the Tories were to somehow manage to get more seats than Labour, it certainly won't be a majority... and UKIP is really the only party who will get into bed with them. Hopeless.
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LibertyAnstead
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If it's definitely hopeless, why are you trying to persuade us?
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TheGuyReturns
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(Original post by LibertyAnstead)
If it's definitely hopeless, why are you trying to persuade us?
Not trying to persuade anyone of anything. I just wanted to rub Tory voter's noses in it and ask them how they feel about the fact that 1992 was 23 years ago.
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LibertyAnstead
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Do you enjoy other people's discomfort or are you just socially deprived?
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TheGuyReturns
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(Original post by LibertyAnstead)
Do you enjoy other people's discomfort or are you just socially deprived?
I absolutely enjoy seeing Tory voters in political discomfort. Watching you guys squirm is a huge pleasure. As for the social deprivation, it is exam season so yes, I have been glued to a chair and desk for almost a month now.
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LibertyAnstead
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Sounds laborious.
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Europhile
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(Original post by will_jg)
Bit too soon to speak considering it seems pretty much neck-and-neck at the moment and many recent opinion polls showing a Conservative lead.
They're still unlikely to get enough seats to form a government.
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A1112787
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(Original post by TheGuyReturns)
It's pretty much a certainty that the Tories and UKIP won't get enough votes between them to form a majority government...

So all I gotta say to you
Wannabe, gonnabe, cocksuckin', Tory-votin' prankstas
Is when May 7th rolls around what the **** you gonna do?
Damn it feels good to be a lefty, ha.
Nothing's certain; it might appear certain, but it isn't. The fact that you even mention Ukip reflects your ignorance of the electoral stage. Ukip will be lucky to get one seat and 7% of the vote once the ballots are counted.

I'm very confident the Tories will win a modest majority. But, if I play along with your ludicrous hypothetical, I imagine things will play out like this:

Labour will be the second largest party, but with the help the SNP in some sort of non-formal-coalition deal, will have a wafer-thin majority. Red Ed will face constant accusations regarding his legitimacy (after all, the country didn't really elect him to be PM) and the SNP will dictate his policy because they know he's entirely dependent on them.

This will lead to several things occurring, inter alia: (1) the left-wing policies will destroy the economic progress the country has made; (2) Scotland will be disproportionately benefited; (3) the UK would inevitably agree to further devolving of powers to the EU, etc.

The effect of this government, and the shambles that it will invariably be, will be to rally the Right of British politics and sway the undecideds dramatically towards the Tories - resulting in a backlash at the 2020 election. Labour will be thrown out of office and the SNP will have cemented their foothold on Scotland, permanently fragmenting the Left. As such, the Tories will remain in government therein for a generation.

So either way, it's a win-win for the Tories.
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A1112787
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(Original post by Europhile)
They're still unlikely to get enough seats to form a government.

Do you honestly believe the Tories will get c.280 seats? And that Labour will manage to gain c.60 seats to be the largest party?

The divide in the polls is startling: online polls tend to show modest Labour leads; phone polls tend to show quite healthy Tory leads. But the one things no one is accounting for is trajectory: Labour's vote share can really only do down as the Lib Dems inevitably recover to whatever extent. Meanwhile, the Tories will benefit from a squeezed Ukip vote and also from a sway of undecideds giving them the benefit of the doubt on the basis of the economy.

Therefore, at the very least, we should see a repeat of the 2010 result (albeit with Labour and the Lib Dems with less seats but with the latter having enough to form a majority government with the Tories).
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TheGuyReturns
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(Original post by A1112787)
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That's quite the daydream you had there. Did you get to ride a unicorn too?

Honestly though, where is this Tory majority suddenly going to appear from? The Tories couldn't even beat bumbling Brown following a huge economic crash and a generally disliked Labour party.
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A1112787
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(Original post by TheGuyReturns)
Not trying to persuade anyone of anything. I just wanted to rub Tory voter's noses in it and ask them how they feel about the fact that 1992 was 23 years ago.
But aren't Labour exceedingly unlikely to win a majority again for about the same amount of time? They can't win won at this election due to Scotland. And if the SNP persist, through this Parliament, it will have been 15 years for Labour too.... well on their way to matching the Tories' record.
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Europhile
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(Original post by A1112787)
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I don't believe the Tories will be able to get the 326 seats. I believe Labour will with help from any of the Lib Dems/SNP/Plaid/Greens. I can't see the Tories getting back in. How a government ends up being formed is anyones guess. I think there'll either be a deal thrashed out by Labour plus others or another election, personally.
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TheGuyReturns
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(Original post by A1112787)
But aren't Labour exceedingly unlikely to win a majority again for about the same amount of time? They can't win won at this election due to Scotland. And if the SNP persist, through this Parliament, it will have been 15 years for Labour too.... well on their way to matching the Tories' record.
LOL and yet my predictions are loony? Hilarious. Dream on!
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Cryptographic
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(Original post by TheGuyReturns)
Those "recent opinion polls" are a few anomalies in a sea of poll after poll showing Labour either equal to, or ahead of the Tories. Besides, the Tories need several more points than Labour to get the same number of seats. And even if the Tories were to somehow manage to get more seats than Labour, it certainly won't be a majority... and UKIP is really the only party who will get into bed with them. Hopeless.
While that logic was solid for previous elections, things are a bit different this time. Firstly Labour is likely to get wiped out in Scotland (in terms of MPs) - but still get a large amount of votes, this reduces their vote efficiency. Furthermore UKIP is taking a higher proportion of Con votes than Lab votes, but crucially in the marginals (Con-Lab, Lab-Lib and Con-Lib) they are often being squeezed to sub 5% this means that they are taking lots of votes in safe seats but likely won't take huge numbers of Con seats. This increases the Conservative vote efficiency. This means that the normal 4-5% required lead may be 0% (I reckon that it's around 0.5).

Furthermore if we look at the current polls (excl. YouGov as their in-House effects make the polling incredibly static due to the fact that they are mostly polling political anoraks who have already made up their mind as well as Populus which systematically over samples C2DEs and undersamples ABC1s) we see that the Tory leads are becoming more common (indeed ones of 4-6% aren't exactly very rare). Lastly you also need to look at the Phone v Online polling gap. The former has been producing Tory leads for months whereas the latter tends to favour Labour (& UKIP IIRC).

Then of course there's the chance that the pollsters are going to 'do a 1992'.

Personally I'm going for a 4-7% Tory lead on polling day, mainly because of three things: The pollsters over predicting Labour and underestimating the Conservatives at the Euros; I have yet to hear someone say something positive about Ed Miliband or Labour/ the Economy and lastly because of the increasing competency of the Conservative campaign and the salience of the Labour-SNP line.

Posted from TSR Mobile
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A1112787
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(Original post by TheGuyReturns)
That's quite the daydream you had there. Did you get to ride a unicorn too?

Honestly though, where is this Tory majority suddenly going to appear from? The Tories couldn't even beat bumbling Brown following a huge economic crash and a generally disliked Labour party.
You mustn't be distracted by elections past: each election is its own mystery. The Lib Dems prevented a Tory majority in 2010. It has been said by many that the Tories can win a comfortable majority with 7-8% lead. Given they're on 34% on average, that only takes a couple of points from Ukip and another couple from the undecideds... meanwhile, Labour will drop points to the Lib Dems who can inevitably only recover from their current position.
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A1112787
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(Original post by Europhile)
I don't believe the Tories will be able to get the 326 seats. I believe Labour will with help from any of the Lib Dems/SNP/Plaid/Greens. I can't see the Tories getting back in. How a government ends up being formed is anyones guess. I think there'll either be a deal thrashed out by Labour plus others or another election, personally.
I think the political reality is that the Lib Dems will either form Coalition 2.0 with the Tories or go into opposition. The Greens are a parliamentary insignificance so they won't play a part. Ed will therefore only practically deal with the SNP -but whether Labour have enough seats to form a majority with them is another matter.

I don't think people appreciate the impact the Tories' Labour/SNP threat line will have in England... I can't imagine people in England want a party who tried to break up the country not even 9 months ago to play a part in governing the country.
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A1112787
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(Original post by TheGuyReturns)
LOL and yet my predictions are loony? Hilarious. Dream on!
Please explain how an increasingly Left-wing Labour Party can win a majority with the Scotland problem... Labour hasn't won an election from the Left since Attlee - and those were especial circumstances.
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