Rakas21
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Over the last week or so I've received a couple of PM's asking what the polls were showing and we are now at the point where we get final polls so I thought i'd post each final poll in the OP and we can compare which pollster gets the Tory-Lab vote best.

I'm writing an essay today so i'll just give the Tory-Lab gap for now and add more detail tomorrow.

(Apologies if one notices an error or it's not a final poll (some pollsters do it for more than 1 Newspaper))
............

Will keep this updated with final polling for those interested in seeing who was closest..


BMG: Tie

TNS: 1% Tory win

Opinium: 1% Tory win

Comres: 1% Tory win

Survation: Tie

Panelbase: 2% Labour win

YouGov: Tie

Populus: Tie

ICM: 1% Labour win

Ashcroft: Tie

IPSOS/MORI: 1% Tory win
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username878267
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ICM who have been all over the place this year and had recently shown 6 and 3 point tory leads have the two parties level at 35% each in their final poll.

The general theme of the polls seems to be a very close contest with maybe the tories slightly ahead. How that translates into seats is anyones guess.
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Rakas21
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(Original post by Bornblue)
ICM who have been all over the place this year and had recently shown 6 and 3 point tory leads have the two parties level at 35% each in their final poll.

The general theme of the polls seems to be a very close contest with maybe the tories slightly ahead. How that translates into seats is anyones guess.
Aye. Incomplete though (they are polling right up into tonight) so the final adjusted poll from them will be coming tomorrow.

Probably removes Labour's seat advantage given how many seats the SNP will take.
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username878267
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(Original post by Rakas21)
Aye. Incomplete though (they are polling right up into tonight) so the final adjusted poll from them will be coming tomorrow.

Probably removes Labour's seat advantage given how many seats the SNP will take.
Interested to hear your gut instinct as to what you think the result will be, not what you want but what you objectively think. In terms of seats?
I think Tories 285 and Labour 275 basing it on gut instinct.
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Rakas21
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(Original post by Bornblue)
Interested to hear your gut instinct as to what you think the result will be, not what you want but what you objectively think. In terms of seats?
I think Tories 285 and Labour 275. A few seats really can make all the difference.
Once ICM adjusts tomorrow I'll go with an average of their last 3 polls but if you were to ask me now I'd say that the Tories will win on votes by 2-3%. I'd say my prediction from December (in my sig) should not be far off although possibly more like 35-32.

In terms of seats i'd say 285-295 for the Tories (on the cusp of not being able to govern), probably 270-280 for Labour (enough to pass a Queens Speech with the SNP should Cameron not scrape over the line).

I've opted not to put money on this election though, I don't have the confidence given the SNP spoiler and lack of polling movement.
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Birkenhead
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How likely do you think it is that we will have another election in a few months time, and when do you think such an election would be held?
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Sanctimonious
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(Original post by Birkenhead)
How likely do you think it is that we will have another election in a few months time, and when do you think such an election would be held?
After all this build up and drama, it'd be incredibly anti-climatic to then reveal that there is to be another election. The voter turnout for the next election would be much lower as people would simply lose enthusiasm for it. Having said that, it could get interesting as it'd also be the biggest argument for a change to the way politics is done in this country for a long time.
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username878267
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(Original post by Rakas21)
Once ICM adjusts tomorrow I'll go with an average of their last 3 polls but if you were to ask me now I'd say that the Tories will win on votes by 2-3%. I'd say my prediction from December (in my sig) should not be far off although possibly more like 35-32.

In terms of seats i'd say 285-295 for the Tories (on the cusp of not being able to govern), probably 270-280 for Labour (enough to pass a Queens Speech with the SNP should Cameron not scrape over the line).

I've opted not to put money on this election though, I don't have the confidence given the SNP spoiler and lack of polling movement.
Do you think the polls have got it wrong with it being a dead heat or do you think just that a lot of Ukippers will 'come home' on the final day?
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Rakas21
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(Original post by Bornblue)
Do you think the polls have got it wrong with it being a dead heat or do you think just that a lot of Ukippers will 'come home' on the final day?
I think the pollsters which have tended to lean towards a small Tory win have been more or less right all along (obviously there are exceptions like today) but that's largely due to the various methodologies.

That said, I was resigned to a Labour majority back in 2012.
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username878267
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(Original post by Rakas21)
I think the pollsters which have tended to lean towards a small Tory win have been more or less right all along (obviously there are exceptions like today) but that's largely due to the various methodologies.

That said, I was resigned to a Labour majority back in 2012.
Well no one could predict what would happen in Scotland.
If not for Scotland it would almost certainly be a Labour majority or a Lab-Lib coalition.

Interesting as well to see John Curtice say this years exit poll could be well off due to the variety of factors.
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Rakas21
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(Original post by Birkenhead)
How likely do you think it is that we will have another election in a few months time, and when do you think such an election would be held?
I'd say there's a two thirds chance that we'll get a coalition or zombie minority. If Labour fail to reach 270 and the Tories fail to reach 290 we then move to a high likelihood and start to contemplate Tory-Labour policy deals and a repeal of the fixed terms act leading to a second election.

Given that 2 or 3 of the main party leaders will be sacked, I imagine next spring would be a likely candidate. In the meantime you'd see various deals with parties all trying to get a signature policy though and not turning up to vote on other things. Very messy.

(Original post by Sanctimonious)
After all this build up and drama, it'd be incredibly anti-climatic to then reveal that there is to be another election. The voter turnout for the next election would be much lower as people would simply lose enthusiasm for it. Having said that, it could get interesting as it'd also be the biggest argument for a change to the way politics is done in this country for a long time.
Not so sure if it occurs after the current leaderships get the sack.
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username878267
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Yougov Nowcast, which makes a prediction based purely on their data and not speculation, obtained from asking 20,000 people across the country is Labour and the Tories both on 276 seats.
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Rakas21
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First Labour lead of a final poll (i think) from Panelbase.
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username878267
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(Original post by Rakas21)
First Labour lead of a final poll (i think) from Panelbase.
Yep, although you have that as a tory lead in the op :P
Panelbase are new to polling and have only shown Labour leads. Maybe they are unreliable, or maybe they are leading the way. We'll find out tomorrow.
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Rakas21
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(Original post by Bornblue)
Yep, although you have that as a tory lead in the op :P
Panelbase are new to polling and have only shown Labour leads. Maybe they are unreliable, or maybe they are leading the way. We'll find out tomorrow.
Rats, copy and pasting.

They did quite a few for the Scottish referendum and are SNP friendly typically in their samples.
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TheTorysWin2015
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The torys will win tomorrow.
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Rakas21
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More final polls in the OP.

Youguv had a 10,000 sample and yet the result was the same as usual.
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username878267
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(Original post by Rakas21)
More final polls in the OP.

Youguv had a 10,000 sample and yet the result was the same as usual.
Kelner (who's predictions have also been all over the place) has predicted Conservatives 284, Labour 263. Interesting as their final poll is a dead heat.
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Rakas21
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Survation would produce a record breaking result.. both Tories and Labour on just 31.4% of the vote.
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viddy9
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Interesting final polls so far. Am I right in saying that the Panelbase poll, which showed a 2-point Labour lead, was quite well-designed seeing as it included a full survey of Scotland, thereby minimising any overestimation of Labour's position? My predictions are:

CON 276
LAB 268
LIB DEM 27
UKIP 2
SNP 54
GREEN 1
PLAID 3
RESPECT 1

Main sources of uncertainty: SNP support might be slightly overestimated; may be some Tory supporters who have claimed they are undecided.

EDIT: YouGov and Survation have them tied, so I won't be changing my predictions until the morning, if at all.
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