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talentedlobster
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#1
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#1
An Exit Poll was posted by Birchington in the GE Thread

It predicted the seats of the house would be as follows:

Labour: 16
Conservative: 12
Greens: 8
UKIP: 7
Liberals: 4
Socialists: 3
Others: 0

I have also conducted a poll of 50 voters, which predicts the seats as follows:

Labour: 11
Greens: 10
Conservative: 10
Liberals: 7
UKIP: 7
Socialist: 3
Honeywell: 1
Barnetlad: 1

Let's see which is closer to the final results.
(Reminder no formal discussions between parties should be held until confirmed results are released.)

[EDIT] For comparison last Parliaments seats are as follows:

Green: 13
Labour: 9
Conservative: 9
UKIP: 7
Socialist: 5
Liberal: 5
Libertarian: 1
Matthew_Lowson: 1
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balanced
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I am very confused at that labour win, they drastically failed in the real thing and your 50 voters looks different. I think that someone made accounts to vote for labour, call me a conspiracy theorist.
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Swanbow
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(Original post by balanced)
I am very confused at that labour win, they drastically failed in the real thing and your 50 voters looks different. I think that someone made accounts to vote for labour, call me a conspiracy theorist.
Despite Labour's overall failure they were pretty good at attracting the youth's vote and attention.
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RayApparently
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(Original post by balanced)
I am very confused at that labour win, they drastically failed in the real thing and your 50 voters looks different. I think that someone made accounts to vote for labour, call me a conspiracy theorist.
Its hardly surprising the left-wing did better on a student forum than in the real life election. Just look at the TSR polls which have us on 30%+. Of anything we didn't do well enough due to votes lost to the Socialists and Greens.
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Both polls show solid Labour results. Lets not hope the revision causes a major upset! (though due to all the new UKIP accounts I've been seeing I imagine they will lose out the most)
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balanced
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(Original post by Swanbow)
Despite Labour's overall failure they were pretty good at attracting the youth's vote and attention.
Fair enough but I would have thought they'd have been lower with the green s a bit higher, but the greens didn't get much attention recently so maybe they went to labour.
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balanced
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(Original post by RayApparently)
Its hardly surprising the left-wing did better on a student forum than in the real life election. Just look at the TSR polls which have us on 30%+. Of anything we didn't do well enough due to votes lost to the Socialists and Greens.
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Both polls show solid Labour results. Lets not hope the revision causes a major upset! (though due to all the new UKIP accounts I've been seeing I imagine they will lose out the most)
The ukip accounts are very new, it will be in the next election after this that we would do well, but actually we do decently on tsr compared to real life.
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RayApparently
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(Original post by balanced)
The ukip accounts are very new, it will be in the next election after this that we would do well, but actually we do decently on tsr compared to real life.
Yes, you do - UKIP are a very strong party here.

Did you vote?
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balanced
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(Original post by RayApparently)
Yes, you do - UKIP are a very strong party here.

Did you vote?
I did, until I realised after the announcement I shouldn't have been able to. I've only been here about a week
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RayApparently
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(Original post by balanced)
I did, until I realised after the announcement I shouldn't have been able to. I've only been here about a week
Fair enough, the effect of removing votes like yours could be devastating for UKIP/Labour/Tories which I suspect gained the most from newer accounts, brought to the MHoC by the RL General Election hype.
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RayApparently
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(Original post by CescaD96)
TSR has been doing a lot of updates recently so I suspect that it is that.
Empress, this is where you say: "If these exit polls are right, I'll publicly eat my hat!"
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talentedlobster
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With the removal of un-official voters, I think greens should be able to pull up close to Labour/Conservatives, if not pull ahead even.
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Asolare
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Yours is completely off the mark.

Why? Because us liberals have more than 5 seats after how the GE went :rofl:
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Serious though, it'll be interesting to see which one matches closer.
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(Original post by RayApparently)
Empress, this is where you say: "If these exit polls are right, I'll publicly eat my hat!"
If these polls are right, I'll publicly eat my hat! (Provided that it's made of chocolate or cake, of course.)

I'm sorry, how do we get from 4 Liberal seats to 7?! We just had 5 in the previous parliament so damn am I confused!
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(Original post by Inexorably)
Yours is completely off the mark.

Why? Because us liberals have more than 5 seats after how the GE went :rofl:
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Serious though, it'll be interesting to see which one matches closer.
+1.

Seriously, this is a bit of confusion for me so I will be taking it lightly.
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RayApparently
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(Original post by CescaD96)
If these polls are right, I'll publicly eat my hat! (Provided that it's made of chocolate or cake, of course.)

I'm sorry, how do we get from 4 Liberal seats to 7?! We just had 5 in the previous parliament so damn am I confused!
The OP doesn't show the current make up of Parliament. But yes you, and the Socs had 5 each this time.
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talentedlobster
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(Original post by CescaD96)
If these polls are right, I'll publicly eat my hat! (Provided that it's made of chocolate or cake, of course.)

I'm sorry, how do we get from 4 Liberal seats to 7?! We just had 5 in the previous parliament so damn am I confused!
Mine probably over inflate you slightly, I only polled about 10% of the electorate, but I also think after non-official voters are taken out, the Liberals should be one of the gainers.
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talentedlobster
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(Original post by RayApparently)
The OP doesn't show the current make up of Parliament. But yes you, and the Socs had 5 each this time.
I'll add a list of the current parliament, to show how it differs.
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PetrosAC
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(Original post by CescaD96)
If these polls are right, I'll publicly eat my hat! (Provided that it's made of chocolate or cake, of course.)

I'm sorry, how do we get from 4 Liberal seats to 7?! We just had 5 in the previous parliament so damn am I confused!
Exit Poll says: 4 seats

TalentedLobsters Poll says: 7 seats

With a drop for Labour, the Tories and UKIP expected due to illegitimate votes, we can expect 5 and even possibly 6 seats, unless we also face a drop in votes.

Posted from TSR Mobile
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(Original post by RayApparently)
The OP doesn't show the current make up of Parliament. But yes you, and the Socs had 5 each this time.

(Original post by talentedlobster)
Mine probably over inflate you slightly, I only polled about 10% of the electorate, but I also think after non-official voters are taken out, the Liberals should be one of the gainers.
That's what I'm thinking because let's face it, most of the illegal votes probably went to ukip, the tories and labour, because the RL Lib Dems are so clearly despised. However, if we have 4 seats then that's alright. That's life.
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RayApparently
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(Original post by CescaD96)
That's what I'm thinking because let's face it, most of the illegal votes probably went to ukip, the tories and labour, because the RL Lib Dems are so clearly despised. However, if we have 4 seats then that's alright. That's life.
This is going to a be a tense few days. Not sure if the exit poll was such a good idea anymore lol
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