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    I have just been to a UKIP meeting. The head of the area told the room that the EU was founded by Germany for German interests. From the European steel and coal community to the present day. This is the usual link put forward by UKIP about the creation of the EU. However it is wrong.

    The truth is the European steel and coal community was an American idea to bring western Europe closer and build up its economy against the USSR. Then in the late 70's and 80's the French attempted to use the common market as part of their geo-strategy to build up their power. Then once Germany was unified the EU became about constraining Germany so it wouldn't start European war 3 to protect its economic interests. The France, Britain had to do this. Now Germany is dependent upon exports for 30% of its GDP. With exports you are dependent upon your customers. The French, British, Polish, Italians and others are waiting to leave the EU until Germany is militarily in no position to go to war. This will happen when Germany's demographic problems and lack of dynamism become apparent. The fact is Germany is the weakest nation in the EU, dependent upon it and it can't force its customers to buy anymore.

    Currently and since 1992 Germany has increasingly been sucking the rest of Europe dry and they were willing to pay because they were also growing and had high employment. Today France 15% unemployment rate in the South, Spain has 20-25%, Greece and Southern Italy have 20-30% unemployment rate. With youth unemployment at 40% plus and massive wage cuts. This divide between Germany everybody else is the heart of the issue, that poor nations can't by German goods and Germany can't bailout 80-100 million people. The result is people will look to their old nation state and currency in some cases if they can and others will seek a better deal from Germany. Nations like Poland, France, Italy and Britain will leave the EU and Euro, nations like Portugal, Greece and Belgium will likely keep the Euro along with Germany. I would expect the break up of the EU to ruin the German economy and for it to go through a re-balancing losing 10-20% of GDP and a doubling of unemployment. Last time this happened Germany moved to WW2, however then Germany had some of the best demographics in the world. Today it has bad demographics compared to Poland, Britain and France. So the German's don't have the workforce or military man power to undertake what they did in WW2.

    I think within 5 years the EU will be no more and Britain voting to leave will be the first nail in its coffin.

    I get these views from a book by George Friedman called "Flashpoints: The emerging crisis in Europe".


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