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Math HL Portfolio ... Type II: The probability of tennis

Did anybody do this portfolio?
Can you please explain what...exactly i'm supposed to do..?
Our teacher didnt explain anything..
Thank y0u!

Reply 1

nota bene

I have never heard of that portfolio, it is at least not in the 2005 TSM... sorry can't help you.

Reply 2

o.Ob

It sounds like your teacher made up that task as it isn't found in the HL Math 2006 TSR either. Try searching other math portfolio threads to get an idea of what the internal assessment is all about and if you're stuck, just ask us.

Reply 3

HMSChocolate

I have never heard of this one either and trust me, we get A LOT of portfolio threads around here. Though usually the trick is to answer the question! For type II, isn't the first question usually just plotting some graph or something??

Reply 4

j062789

Type II: The probability of tennis
Description
The purpose of this task is to investigate the connections between
certain probability distributions and the process of match play in
tennis. We will construct a probability model first for two players of
predictable abilities and then broaden our scope to players of
different (but still predictable) abilities. We will also investigate
two models of resolving the ties.

1)Suppose two players have played against each other often enough to
know that player A wins approximately 2/3 of the time and player B
only 1/3 of the time. The two decide to play 10 games of practice at
their club.
a) What would be an appropriate model for the distribution of
the possible outcomes? After you have chosen the distribution,
explain why you chose it and mention any concerns you might
about its validity.
b) Using the distribution you have chosen, calculate all
values of the random variable A’s wins and draw a histogram for
your chart. Be certain to document any technology that
using to help with the calculations and/or graphing.

This is the Portfolio, but it has many more parts to it.
However, what is an "appropriate model" in 1a? and a "histogram"?

And am I supposed to write in paragraph form?
Our teacher didn't tell us anything..Can somebody explain please?
Thank y0u!

Reply 5

nota bene

an 'appropriate model' is probably the one that fits the data best :wink:

(i.e. regression closest to 1). "Histogram".

And about the writing part, I remember it says explicitly somewhere in the criterion papers that you shall write independently from the task given so that you score higher on 'communication' than you would otherwise. That is, do not start you essay with 1a) and then a long rant 1b) rant rant 1c) etc. :p:

Reply 6

IB-more

It's a binomial distribution, under the following criteria:

* The experiment consists of n repeated trials.
* Each trial can result in just two possible outcomes. We call one of these outcomes a success and the other, a failure.
* The probability of success, denoted by p, is the same on every trial.
* The trials are independent; that is, the outcome on one trial does not affect the outcome on other trials.

(http://stattrek.com/Lesson2/Binomial.aspx)

If you had more than 30 trials, you could do a normal approximation, but you don't. You can discuss that if you want later in the protfolio. Write this all in paragraph form.

A histogram is a chart that shows the frequency of each outcome. It's kind of like a bar graph.

I would go into more detail, but right now I have to start on my link paper, so I'll get back to you if you need more information later. I haven't had this portfolio before, but I did take AP Stat last year, and did pretty well in it. PM me if you need some more help.

Reply 7

j062789

Thank you everyone!

But im still confused.
I am totally lost. :s-smilie:

I have noo idea what a portfolio is.

Reply 8

sahajumang

this portfolio is part of 2009's list of type 2 portfolios, and I'm doing it currently..

I just bumped a 2 year old thread! :-P

Reply 9

Prithvi

Did anyone get the 5th question on this portfolio?

Reply 10

running from demons

Yes.

Reply 11

radicality

I did that portfolio and got 20/20.

This will definitely help: link

From what I remember, the answer to the final question is what they give in this book

Reply 12

sume

i know that this is probably the easiest part but the generalisation of player c and d
for when i substitude probability 0.5 i never end up getting 0.5 and i know that something is wrong excpect i cant see it.
for the first one where is asks you to find probability of winning without deuce i used 3C0 (c)^4 * (d)^0 + 4C1 (c)^4 * (d)^1 + 5C2 (c)^4 * (d)^2
i know my other ones are wrong as well but im hoping by finding what is faulting in this one ill be able to firgure the rest out!
PLEASE HELP!!

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