I'm sure you can attempt a calculation at the lifetime of a proton in QCD.
If the lifetime is 1030 yrs as someone mentioned, how many protons would you need in order to have a chance of observing say, 100 proton decays during a month of observation (about 3 a day)?
N = RT = 1000yr-11030yr = 1033 protons, or about 1000 tonnes of protons. Now, this is not impossible, just get 2000 tonnes of water and watch it for proton decay for a month and you should see some.
However, I think the problem is that even if you have 10000 proton decays per month in your massive tank of water (remind anyone of a neutrino detector?), this still isn't a very frequent event. The detectors have a certain level of sensitivity, and there is a certain background noise which your signal must penetrate through. Also, I think there are other processes which might produce positrons to complicate things. Detecting such a weak signal of positrons is hard, I believe.
It's not that proton decay has never been observed (I'd be surprised if it hadn't in the SNO), it's just that it's hard to tell whether it was a proton decay for sure. (Note - all this I am trying to remember from talking to a nuclear physicist in 1st year...)