This has been said countless times before, but I will repeat it.
Technically, if you are accepted by the department, you are definitely going to be accepted by the university. However, some colleges receive a lot of applications and yours may not have room for you. Thus they might pool you to another college. So you might get an offer from a college you didn't reply to, or you might get an offer from the one you *did* reply to.
However, Durham Track is rubbish and is incorrect (apparently) quite a lot of the time. So just wait until it comes up on UCAS without making assumptions. Durham Track is unlikely to change again before UCAS tells you the outcome, anyhow.
Okay, so enough with these threads now. Please.