Will Jeremy Corbyn win back UKIP voters or will Labour voters go UKIP

Watch
Poll: Can Corbyn win back UKIP voters?
He will win back UKIP voters (6)
46.15%
He will cause more Labour voters to vote UKIP (7)
53.85%
Ace123
Badges: 2
Rep:
?
#1
Report Thread starter 5 years ago
#1
Nigel Farage has said Corbyn's victory has given UKIP a big boost-http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/604907/Nigel-Farage-Jeremy-Corbyn-Labour-leader-huge-boost-Ukip

In the general election UKIP took more Labour voters than Tory voters. Given that some of Corbyn's key policies include support for mass immigration, calling for more refugees to be let into the UK, handing the Falklands to Argentina as well as associations with radical muslims. Today Diane Abbott also said Corbyn would not support EU exit but he has not confirmed it yet.

So can Corbn win back voters from UKIP or will more Labour voters go and vote for UKIP. Also can he win back Green or SNP voters?
0
reply
Sam280297
Badges: 14
Rep:
?
#2
Report 5 years ago
#2
(Original post by Ace123)
Nigel Farage has said Corbyn's victory has given UKIP a big boost-http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/604907/Nigel-Farage-Jeremy-Corbyn-Labour-leader-huge-boost-Ukip

In the general election UKIP took more Labour voters than Tory voters. Given that some of Corbyn's key policies include support for mass immigration, calling for more refugees to be let into the UK, handing the Falklands to Argentina as well as associations with radical muslims. Today Diane Abbott also said Corbyn would not support EU exit but he has not confirmed it yet.

So can Corbn win back voters from UKIP or will more Labour voters go and vote for UKIP. Also can he win back Green or SNP voters?
One of the reasons why Labour voters went to UKIP was because of their stance on immigration. With a new leader who is all for uncontrolled immigration I cant see many people wanting to support them. He may win a few back if he advocates a no/leave vote in the referendum, but from the looks of it he will be remaining pro-eu

With regards to Green and SNP voters his anti-austerity policies will resonate with them, so I could see voters going back to Labour there, but overall, the loss of voters to Lib Dems tories and UKIP could see Labour fall in votes and seats.
0
reply
Bazbaz
Badges: 9
Rep:
?
#3
Report 5 years ago
#3
If he'll win back anyone, it'll be the greens... but there's so few of them it hardly matters. Labour have really shot themselves in the foot.
0
reply
Rakas21
Badges: 21
Rep:
?
#4
Report 5 years ago
#4
I think that most voters fleeing to Ukip have already done so, so minimal effect.
0
reply
Swanbow
Badges: 19
Rep:
?
#5
Report 5 years ago
#5
He might win back some of them. I've spoken to many people who voted UKIP not because they genuinely believed in them, but because they wanted to punish Labour for being useless and couldn't bring themselves to vote Tory. But amongst the anti-immigration crowd there is fat chance.

I think Jeremy Corbyn can lay down a good foundation for the party being left-wing again, winning back supporters from the Greens, SNP and non-voters, and then move aside as the 2020 election comes up. Dan Jarvis might be up for it then, who'll realistically be our best shot at winning in 2020.
0
reply
jambojim97
Badges: 21
Rep:
?
#6
Report 5 years ago
#6
A bit of both. Also be aware that there are many Greens who defected from Labour due to the Blair brigade, so Corbyn may bring Greens back to Labour.
0
reply
username878267
Badges: 15
Rep:
?
#7
Report 5 years ago
#7
He will win some back.
Now it's simplistic to assume that every UKIP voter hates immigration or that's why they joined- equally many hate the establishment and are fed up with politics as it is.

Many labour voters turned to UKIP because they felt labour were no different from the Tories - they certainly are now.
0
reply
Bulbasaur
Badges: 17
Rep:
?
#8
Report 5 years ago
#8
If you look at opinion polls, in May 2015 UKIP polled around about where they were in 2013. In other words, they went backwards about 2 years in the space of a few months. Now since the election we should obviously be a bit more skeptical of polls, but their support has actually fallen further since the election. This really reflects quite badly on the party given hysteria over immigration has never really been much greater. Just look at their local by-election results (bear in mind, by-elections usually boost the results of parties like UKIP because those who support them tend to have stronger views and are thus more likely to turn out - e.g. what happened with Mark Reckless): http://ukgeneralelection2020.blogspo...rmance_28.html This indicates, on average, a -10% swing in the seats they stood in last time. Quite dramatic.

So, given all that, you would surely think that if immigration was all that mattered, then UKIP would have record support right now. But polls also say that UKIP voters are on average more likely to vote Labour if Corbyn won than if he didn't (saw it on YouGov, can't be bothered to find the link right now). That to me suggests that immigration is NOT the only reason for UKIP's support, but that a deep apathy about establishment politics (of which increasingly Farage is seen to be part of) and a refusal of Labour to stand up for working class voters are also very important factors. Indeed, ex-Labour kippers are actually more likely to be on the socialist left when it comes to economic policy. Hence why some kippers might be attracted to Corbyn.

Also, there may be a quiet sense of disillusionment with UKIP - that 4m gave their support, and for them it's pretty much changed nothing. Of course that's mostly down to the FPTP system, but if voters who are used to knowing the party they vote for could be a party in government, and they now realise with UKIP that it's not going to happen, they might grudgingly go back to their old party. If they feel like Labour is now standing up for something, even if it's not necessarily compeltely aligned with their views, Corbyn could have that Farage-effect of being this anti-establishment politician.

Sorry that wasn't all completely relevant, but essentialy the point I'm making is that Corbyn comes at a time where UKIP support may be waning, and like UKIP were in the last parliament, Corbyn may become the new bandwagon for disgruntled voters. How he does that given his positions not only on immgiration but also Trident, compounded by his awkward record of meeting dodgy people, is another question. But hey, given he was 200:1 to become leader in the first place, we can't rule anything out can we.

(For the record I wanted Yvette as leader, not that I'm a labour voter)
0
reply
TheHistoryStudent
Badges: 11
Rep:
?
#9
Report 5 years ago
#9
It's one of those things I think could go either way if Corybyn isn't careful. The majority of Lab voters who went to UKIP, (I think), went because of Labour's stances on immigration and Europe, but did not necessarily subscribe to it's more right-wing economic policies. It was two areas UKIP were able to monopolise because the main three parties all wanted to stay in, had all failed on cutting numbers, and because EU rules on immigration do make it difficult, if not impossible, to impose the kind of controls people want.

Labour should, under Corbyn, be prepared to campaign to leave the EU should a positive reform of it not be achieved, and should also be prepared to argue for tight immigration controls, albeit still with an open mind towards immigrants.

Corbyn will be helped somewhat on the EU issue because after the 2017 referrendum it will be (somewhat) resolved. The issue of immigration however is much more thorny, and to be honest, I don't think Corbyn will compromise his beliefs on that, (though he probably should to some degree). That will likely continue to cost votes to UKIP, or the tories if they promise to curb immigration numbers (which, so far, they've failed on).

Corbyn has a chance of becoming the leader of a coalition I think, but only if he compromises on some of his more controversial views like the EU, immigration, NATO, and possibly Trident. If he leads the way I think he plans to, however, and involves greater participation and consultation, then he might just do it.
0
reply
X

Quick Reply

Attached files
Write a reply...
Reply
new posts
Back
to top
Latest
My Feed

See more of what you like on
The Student Room

You can personalise what you see on TSR. Tell us a little about yourself to get started.

Personalise

Current uni students - are you thinking of dropping out of university?

Yes, I'm seriously considering dropping out (176)
14.52%
I'm not sure (56)
4.62%
No, I'm going to stick it out for now (355)
29.29%
I have already dropped out (35)
2.89%
I'm not a current university student (590)
48.68%

Watched Threads

View All