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    I would welcome any insights anyone has on how their school approaches the business of predictions: are they simply a photocopy of AS grades? is there any element of potential or incentive built in- so a 'best estimate'? is any allowance ever made for illness or weak/disjointed teaching due to maternity leave cover in the AS year which has affected performance? where's the tipping point in deciding whether to predict an A or a B- is it at 60:40 or 70:30 or 80:20 or 90 :10? Or is it just gut feel and professional judgement? Does UCAS issue guidance for schools on this?
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    (Original post by Sceptic-optimist)
    I would welcome any insights anyone has on how their school approaches the business of predictions: are they simply a photocopy of AS grades? is there any element of potential or incentive built in- so a 'best estimate'? is any allowance ever made for illness or weak/disjointed teaching due to maternity leave cover in the AS year which has affected performance? where's the tipping point in deciding whether to predict an A or a B- is it at 60:40 or 70:30 or 80:20 or 90 :10? Or is it just gut feel and professional judgement? Does UCAS issue guidance for schools on this?
    Sorry, no insights into school procedures, but this report from UCAS

    https://www.ucas.com/sites/default/f...redictions.pdf

    makes interesting reading.

    Googling for predictions vs AS brought up this Feb 2013 school statement:

    http://www.hollyfield.kingston.sch.u...n/ucaspred.pdf

    suggesting that the school would want firm evidence to predict higher than the AS.

    However, in a climate where the universities themselves seem to be acknowledging that they are inflating the requested grades, I am not sure whether this attitude still prevails (especially in the light of the UCAS analysis above).
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    schools vary on how they handle prediction but if the school predict more than a grade up on AS admission tutors are likely to expect an explanation. Some people suggest lower predictions are acceptable as A2 is more difficult.
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    It really does depend on the school's own policy, which in theory stems from their own experiences in previous years. It can also rely simply on an individual teacher's faith in the student (which is closer to my own sixth form's policy, meaning me and a number of friends had to negotiate our predicted grades down).

    Allowances for illness and disjointed teaching will less be reflected in the predicted grades, and more likely in the reference - low AS grades could occur for any number of reasons, and the reference is the space to explain that this is because of something outside of the student's ability or control.
 
 
 

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