EU will be gone in 5 years. Watch

william walker
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The EU will be gone in 5 years. So how will it change Britain when the EU no long exists? How will our laws change and how will power within the nation change?
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TSR Mustafa
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Because Anglican , das it.
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Rakas21
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People have been predicting its demise for years, it still exists.

In the future a federal core will manifest albeit the EU will have shed members who won't integrate by then.
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william walker
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(Original post by TSR Mustafa)
Because Anglican , das it.
No because the rest of the Euro-zone can't compete with Germany economically and the eastern part of the EU is moving against Russia and the West and South don't want to support them. Plus people are becoming increasingly opposed to immigration so they will break the free trade common market. Seriously the EU could be gone before we have our referendum on it.
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Gears265
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(Original post by Rakas21)
People have been predicting its demise for years, it still exists.

In the future a federal core will manifest albeit the EU will have shed members who won't integrate by then.
The fact people like you want to happily federalise the UK into Europe is scary. They say Corbyn is a threat to national security. It is Tories like you who really are. Only the pockets of the rich Tory affiliates benefit from the EU, they will sacrifice anything to make more money.
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william walker
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(Original post by Rakas21)
People have been predicting its demise for years, it still exists.

In the future a federal core will manifest albeit the EU will have shed members who won't integrate by then.
In am forecasting France and Italy will be the first nations to leave the Euro-zone. Poland and UK to leave the EU before that or about the same time. After that I expect an economic re-adjustment and possible war with Germany if the French and Polish haven't times their leaving correctly. I also expect forced removal of Muslims and people of foreign legacy within Europe as nationalism asserts itself.
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william walker
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(Original post by Gears265)
The fact people like you want to happily federalise the UK into Europe is scary. They say Corbyn is a threat to national security. It is Tories like you who really are. Only the pockets of the rich Tory affiliates benefit from the EU, they will sacrifice anything to make more money.
So how to you expect the brake up of the EU to affect Britain? What will change here from it?
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Rakas21
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(Original post by Gears265)
The fact people like you want to happily federalise the UK into Europe is scary. They say Corbyn is a threat to national security. It is Tories like you who really are. Only the pockets of the rich Tory affiliates benefit from the EU, they will sacrifice anything to make more money.
I never said I wanted the UK to be in it or even that I'll vote to stay. Regardless of what the UK does though, I still think its likely and somewhat support it for the other EU members.

(Original post by william walker)
In am forecasting France and Italy will be the first nations to leave the Euro-zone. Poland and UK to leave the EU before that or about the same time. After that I expect an economic re-adjustment and possible war with Germany if the French and Polish haven't times their leaving correctly. I also expect forced removal of Muslims and people of foreign legacy within Europe as nationalism asserts itself.
I think the last EU elections were a good guide as to which states are vulnerable to leaving given that they occurred at almost the worst moment for the EU (great recession and debt crisis). The results of those suggest that 12 members are vulnerable I think (skeptics coming first or second) with France, the UK and Italy the most prominent.

I'm not suggesting all 12 will go (I'll tell you all 12 when I'm on the comp) but that any which do will be from that group of states.
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Gears265
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(Original post by william walker)
So how to you expect the brake up of the EU to affect Britain? What will change here from it?
The break up of the EU if happened naturally would cause an initial meltdown. The break up of the EU needs to be done politically and mutually in order for it to be a success. Letting it just collapse is stupid and another reason why we should leave as soon as possible to ensure the impacts on us is not significant.

If done mutually, then Britain would effectively be free of EU regulation and EU state law. There will be massive chunks of the parliamentary bills which will need to be filled in. Laws re-written and introduced. Our sovereignty will be near complete. The international bodies that will have little influence on us are those like the UN, NATO and WTO for example, but these are not political unions like that of the EU.

Immigration would no doubt be the first issue tackled. Borders would be re-introduced.

On joining the WTO, we would be able to set up our own trade deals without being EU regulated and therefore trade would spike. Our EU partners would continue to trade with us. After all what is more important than their pride? MONEY, MONEY and MONEY.

British agriculture would see a positive impact. No longer will farmers be undercut by produce and dairy imported mainly from Eastern Europe.

Our fisheries would essentially be ours. Instead of EU fisherman trailing into our waters without any issue, they would instead have to claim a permit. A good amount of money can be retrieved.

Scotland and Wales will no longer seek independence. They relied on an EU foundation to hold onto but with that gone, the UK is their only method of prosperity (not that leaving would make them prosperous)

The Euro would be hurt, and the pound would most likely increase in value until things level out again.

There would be court reform. No doubt the demise of the EU will see the demise of EU convention and courts of Human Rights in the UK. This is because as an EU signatory we are obliged to sign up to both of these. With no EU, we can leave them straight away.

A British bill of rights will be drawn up.

Depending on who is in power, climate change would be a loser. The EU holds strict guidelines and without them, governments may take less action against it.

It will be a poor day for those tax avoiding idiots. Tax avoidance has spiked under the EU. Without the EU, companies can not settle in an ( a former) EU member state while claiming the tax rates from another (former) EU member state.

Industry will rise in the UK, especially that in the working class sectors. EU regulation saw the closure of multiple factories across Britain. They can all be revived.
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william walker
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(Original post by Rakas21)
I think the last EU elections were a good guide as to which states are vulnerable to leaving given that they occurred at almost the worst moment for the EU (great recession and debt crisis). The results of those suggest that 12 members are vulnerable I think (skeptics coming first or second) with France, the UK and Italy the most prominent.

I'm not suggesting all 12 will go (I'll tell you all 12 when I'm on the comp) but that any which do will be from that group of states.
People don't matter institutions do. When institutions in France and Italy see that Germany is killing them economically and in a weakening position demographically so it would make it impossible for Germany maintain a war against them, then these nations will leave the EU totally. They won't form there own block, they will move to protect themselves economically. So the EU common market is gone and EU free movement of people. The EU institutions will no long exist.
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Gears265
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(Original post by Rakas21)
I never said I wanted the UK to be in it or even that I'll vote to stay. Regardless of what the UK does though, I still think its likely and somewhat support it for the other EU members.
Are you actually saying you would sacrifice the interests of the UK for other nations abroad? I too hope they would prosper, and ideally we could achieve that with individual trade and economic investment, but to do so by staying in the EU at our expense is treachery. If you truly believed the UK is better outside the EU, you should make that clear. That is possibly the poorest argument for staying in. I do not expect many if any, would stay for that.
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Gears265
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(Original post by william walker)
People don't matter institutions do. When institutions in France and Italy see that Germany is killing them economically and in a weakening position demographically so it would make it impossible for Germany maintain a war against them, then these nations will leave the EU totally. They won't form there own block, they will move to protect themselves economically. So the EU common market is gone and EU free movement of people. The EU institutions will no long exist.
You are nuts if you think Germany would declare war on anyone. They have not got the military capacity that they once had. An argument could be made that Junker's EU wide army proposals would be how they would attack us but that is ludicrous, NATO forces would not stand for that.
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william walker
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(Original post by Gears265)
You are nuts if you think Germany would declare war on anyone. They have not got the military capacity that they once had. An argument could be made that Junker's EU wide army proposals would be how they would attack us but that is ludicrous, NATO forces would not stand for that.
You are nuts if you think that Germany looking at a losing its export market for 30% plus of its exports, economic depression and increased demographic decline wouldn't consider war as its own option. Germany has the greatest industrial output in EU, it is an economic power house in everything. It can build up its military to defeat France and Poland in 3 years. Since Poland would be facing down the Russians at the same time. It would be a repeat of WW2.

NATO can't operate without Germany.

What needs to happen is an agreement whereby Germany keeps some of its power and favourable market, without the political union and total free trade zone. So I believe the Euro will remain just with Italy, France and maybe Spain leaving. France and Germany will be on bad terms initially, but the American and British will apply leverage and give them things so they don't go to war again. So I don't think Germany will move to war. Germany just has a 10-15% recession and 10-15% unemployment, its projected demographic decline doesn't change much then the Germans can deal with it. However if they are facing a 25% recession, unemployment of 25-30% and a 40% decline in their population they really have no other option but war.
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Rakas21
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(Original post by Gears265)
Are you actually saying you would sacrifice the interests of the UK for other nations abroad?

I too hope they would prosper, and ideally we could achieve that with individual trade and economic investment, but to do so by staying in the EU at our expense is treachery.

If you truly believed the UK is better outside the EU, you should make that clear. That is possibly the poorest argument for staying in. I do not expect many if any, would stay for that.
Of course not. I value British power above most other things politically.

My stance is that I'm undecided. Both sides paint the best worst/best case scenarios with a dubious grip of economics and context to their arguments. I never gave you any reason to stay, that was not my intent.

I was making the point that a federal core will emerge regardless of whether the UK is a member or not. While I'm open to voting to leave, I still support the remaining states integrating. Supporting British exit of the EU (if I vote that way) does not have to mean that I support the breakup of the entire EU.
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Gears265
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(Original post by william walker)
You are nuts if you think that Germany looking at a losing its export market for 30% plus of its exports, economic depression and increased demographic decline wouldn't consider war as its own option. Germany has the greatest industrial output in EU, it is an economic power house in everything. It can build up its military to defeat France and Poland in 3 years. Since Poland would be facing down the Russians at the same time. It would be a repeat of WW2.

NATO can't operate without Germany.

What needs to happen is an agreement whereby Germany keeps some of its power and favourable market, without the political union and total free trade zone. So I believe the Euro will remain just with Italy, France and maybe Spain leaving. France and Germany will be on bad terms initially, but the American and British will apply leverage and give them things so they don't go to war again. So I don't think Germany will move to war. Germany just has a 10-15% recession and 10-15% unemployment, its projected demographic decline doesn't change much then the Germans can deal with it. However if they are facing a 25% recession, unemployment of 25-30% and a 40% decline in their population they really have no other option but war.
You are nuts.

NATO can very much function without Germany. A treaty was signed after WW2 limiting Germany's military capabilities. Germany is nothing like it once was. With the NATO forces in Afghanistan for example, they only sent a few hundred soldiers on duty. Germany is nothing militarily. Economically they sit on just above 0% GDP growth. We are expected to surpass them in the near future. Germany are not what they once were.
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william walker
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(Original post by Gears265)
You are nuts.

NATO can very much function without Germany. A treaty was signed after WW2 limiting Germany's military capabilities. Germany is nothing like it once was. With the NATO forces in Afghanistan for example, they only sent a few hundred soldiers on duty. Germany is nothing militarily. Economically they sit on just above 0% GDP growth. We are expected to surpass them in the near future. Germany are not what they once were.
I don't know why I bother explain to people on here sometimes.

So NATO can function without Germany? How so? Considering all the British and American bases and assets in Europe are in Germany? All the communications, intelligence and logistics goes through or is in Germany?

You are comparing Germany sending troops for an operation it didn't really want to do and thousands of miles away to Germany fighting on its own territory? The problem Germany has in such a war isn't its military but rather its general staff. It no longer has the Prussian military schools and military legacy. So it will be more averse to war than before. But the idea they it is a spent for militarily is wrong. Just 25 years ago it had the largest army and air force is Western Europe, it build's wonderful submarines and tanks, it has its own aircraft. It has technology transfer from the Americans. If it wanted to it could go to war again.
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Rakas21
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I don't think Germany will be going to war in Europe but it could definitely be a great military power with a few years to build its forces.
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gladders
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Fancy a wager, OP? A grand says it's still there on October 11, 2020
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william walker
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(Original post by gladders)
Fancy a wager, OP? A grand says it's still there on October 11, 2020
I bet you 10 that it will be gone by 2021.
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gladders
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(Original post by william walker)
I bet you 10 that it will be gone by 2021.
You're on!
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