HSBC response to refugee crisis vs. demographics of refugees.

Watch
This discussion is closed.
IFoundWonderland
Badges: 19
Rep:
? You'll earn badges for being active around the site. Rep gems come when your posts are rated by other community members.
#1
Report Thread starter 6 years ago
#1
From an economic perspective, Europe needs more workers. It is well known that most parts of Europe have rapidly ageing populations. This results in slower growth and thus tax receipts, whilst simultaneously increasing government spending through pensions and healthcare. The Eurozone, in particular, is about to embark on this demographic challenge with a mountain of debt. The easiest way to support more pensioners is to have more taxpayers.
<http://uk.businessinsider.com/hsbc-eu-migration-note-europe-needs-immigrants-for-to-pay-pensions-raise-tax-receipts-and-increase-the-workforce-2015-10>

I think that whilst this holds some truth, it fails to take into account the demographics of the refugees:

51.1% are younger then 17
28.5% are younger than 12
Those of working age (18-59) make up only 45.7%; with 23.9% women and 21.8% male.

<http://www.factcheck.org/2015/09/stretching-facts-on-syrian-refugees/>

I think that this has the potential to put more strain on resources? We are assuming that those of working age can work and perhaps are even skilled workers. Granted, the children will grow up and can then contribute economically when they reach working age, but in the meantime, surely that will put a strain on the education and healthcare systems. As well as this, if the children grow up, so will the adults and so we will still have lots of old people and continued pressure on healthcare etc. Also, would refugees of pension age get a pension? Hmm..

Jobs would also have to be created - Greece's unemployment rate in 2014 was 28.80%; Spain's 24.30%; Croatia's 21.00%. (<https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2129rank.html#cj>) It doesn't appear as though the migrants will be able to just arrive and work. Indeed, the EU may already host these workers that HSBC claim we need.

Unemployment rate: compares the percent of the labour force that is without jobs.

I still haven't really established my own opinion of the refugee crisis, but thought that it was interesting. Stumbled across the article this morning, which led me to Google the demographics.

What do you think? :holmes:
0
BestBehaviour
Badges: 1
Rep:
? You'll earn badges for being active around the site. Rep gems come when your posts are rated by other community members.
#2
Report 6 years ago
#2
The general point you're making is obviously true.


Economically they will only have a net positive contribution if they can speak the language of their host nation and meet the needs of employers. I also wonder what will happen when the migrant population gets old, you can't just keep pushing in more people of young age to support them as they get old and you can't expect immigrants not to want the same benefits and pensions senior citizens currently enjoy. I personally believe that Europeans have a cultural problem with caring for elderly relatives and see it as a job for government rather than families.
0
Rakas21
Badges: 21
Rep:
? You'll earn badges for being active around the site. Rep gems come when your posts are rated by other community members.
#3
Report 6 years ago
#3
Any benefits to importing those people would come from their children (after their British education ECT..) rather than from this generation.

At any rate you correctly note that the European labour market has a lot of spare capacity negating the need for much immigration into Europe as a whole and the point I would raise is that of we need more labour, we can open the door to North America anyway rather than import this third world scurge.
1
Gears265
Badges: 5
Rep:
? You'll earn badges for being active around the site. Rep gems come when your posts are rated by other community members.
#4
Report 6 years ago
#4
51.1% are younger than 17 eh? I had to stop there. Firstly it clashes with EU statistics significantly and secondly every video or picture has shown that 99% are men. I have not seen this 51.1% younger than 17.
0
IFoundWonderland
Badges: 19
Rep:
? You'll earn badges for being active around the site. Rep gems come when your posts are rated by other community members.
#5
Report Thread starter 6 years ago
#5
(Original post by Gears265)
51.1% are younger than 17 eh? I had to stop there. Firstly it clashes with EU statistics significantly and secondly every video or picture has shown that 99% are men. I have not seen this 51.1% younger than 17.
Could you please source the EU statistics? These are the only ones I could find. The link says they come from the UN.

Media sources tend to have an agenda.. I'm pretty sure they haven't shown every refugee.

(Original post by BestBehaviour)
The general point you're making is obviously true.


Economically they will only have a net positive contribution if they can speak the language of their host nation and meet the needs of employers. I also wonder what will happen when the migrant population gets old, you can't just keep pushing in more people of young age to support them as they get old and you can't expect immigrants not to want the same benefits and pensions senior citizens currently enjoy. I personally believe that Europeans have a cultural problem with caring for elderly relatives and see it as a job for government rather than families.
That's probably due to the materialistic nature of society - many might see this as a waste of money (forgetting that their parents invested massively in their younger years).

(Original post by Rakas21)
Any benefits to importing those people would come from their children (after their British education ECT..) rather than from this generation.

At any rate you correctly note that the European labour market has a lot of spare capacity negating the need for much immigration into Europe as a whole and the point I would raise is that of we need more labour, we can open the door to North America anyway rather than import this third world scurge.
Would the North Americans be interested in coming here though? I know Americans don't really travel and there are already Caribbean communities in the UK (not sure about Mexicans/Canadians though).
1
username1221160
Badges: 19
Rep:
? You'll earn badges for being active around the site. Rep gems come when your posts are rated by other community members.
#6
Report 6 years ago
#6
Abdul Fattah Jandali was a refugee form Syria. His sperm contributed far more to Western society and economies than everyone on TSR put together because he fathered Steve Jobs.

Anyway, I'm more than happy to accept Syrian refugees into the EU/UK on humanitarian grounds alone, regardless of their contribution.
1
Rakas21
Badges: 21
Rep:
? You'll earn badges for being active around the site. Rep gems come when your posts are rated by other community members.
#7
Report 6 years ago
#7
(Original post by ILovePancakes)
Could you please source the EU statistics? These are the only ones I could find. The link says they come from the UN.

Media sources tend to have an agenda.. I'm pretty sure they haven't shown every refugee.

That's probably due to the materialistic nature of society - many might see this as a waste of money (forgetting that their parents invested massively in their younger years).

Would the North Americans be interested in coming here though? I know Americans don't really travel and there are already Caribbean communities in the UK (not sure about Mexicans/Canadians though).
The US and Australia are 4th and 5th in terms of source countries for UK immigrants with 49,000 in 2013. Add in New Zealand and Canada while relaxing entry requirements compared to now and its easy to image that the white Anglosphere can send us 100,000 per year.

I wasn't thinking of Mexico or the Caribbean (other than UK overseas territories but they have tiny populations).
0
Unkempt_One
Badges: 13
Rep:
? You'll earn badges for being active around the site. Rep gems come when your posts are rated by other community members.
#8
Report 6 years ago
#8
Might HSBC actually sum it up in more sentences so I can understand how the refugees will contribute sufficiently more in tax receipts than is spent on them?
1
A Mysterious Lord
Badges: 20
Rep:
? You'll earn badges for being active around the site. Rep gems come when your posts are rated by other community members.
#9
Report 6 years ago
#9
So immigrants don't age?
0
Patrick Wallace
Badges: 14
Rep:
? You'll earn badges for being active around the site. Rep gems come when your posts are rated by other community members.
#10
Report 6 years ago
#10
(Original post by A Mysterious Lord)
So immigrants don't age?
They do, they just don't whine about it to their GP every Monday because they need someone to talk to.
0
paul514
Badges: 21
Rep:
? You'll earn badges for being active around the site. Rep gems come when your posts are rated by other community members.
#11
Report 6 years ago
#11
Even if what they were saying about uncontrolled migration was true which it isn't you can't simply keep expanding the population to pay for the people already there as they get old and apparently need even more working age to pay for them etc.


Posted from TSR Mobile
0
Rakas21
Badges: 21
Rep:
? You'll earn badges for being active around the site. Rep gems come when your posts are rated by other community members.
#12
Report 6 years ago
#12
(Original post by Unkempt_One)
Might HSBC actually sum it up in more sentences so I can understand how the refugees will contribute sufficiently more in tax receipts than is spent on them?
They won't make a net contribution (though their children might). They will however increase growth via an expansion of the labour force leading to an expansion of potential output. I think that's what they were talking about.

I certainly don't advocate allowing them here though.
0
Rakas21
Badges: 21
Rep:
? You'll earn badges for being active around the site. Rep gems come when your posts are rated by other community members.
#13
Report 6 years ago
#13
(Original post by paul514)
Even if what they were saying about uncontrolled migration was true which it isn't you can't simply keep expanding the population to pay for the people already there as they get old and apparently need even more working age to pay for them etc.

Posted from TSR Mobile
Technically true but somewhat irrelevant until you run out of immigrants to come here (which won't happen for decades if not into the next century).
0
IFoundWonderland
Badges: 19
Rep:
? You'll earn badges for being active around the site. Rep gems come when your posts are rated by other community members.
#14
Report Thread starter 6 years ago
#14
(Original post by Rakas21)
The US and Australia are 4th and 5th in terms of source countries for UK immigrants with 49,000 in 2013. Add in New Zealand and Canada while relaxing entry requirements compared to now and its easy to image that the white Anglosphere can send us 100,000 per year.

I wasn't thinking of Mexico or the Caribbean (other than UK overseas territories but they have tiny populations).
Oh wow, I didn't know that. Do you know how many UK citizens migrate to the same country?

(Original post by A Mysterious Lord)
So immigrants don't age?
They might, but maybe HSBC expects them to work forever :moon:

(Original post by Europe4Whìtes)
Racist gibberish
I'm mixed raced. You ruined my thread :angry:

(Original post by paul514)
Even if what they were saying about uncontrolled migration was true which it isn't you can't simply keep expanding the population to pay for the people already there as they get old and apparently need even more working age to pay for them etc.
It confuses me because according to the DTM, stages 4/5 reflect a more 'developed' society. Yet I think that here, HSBC is implying that a youthful population is more beneficial economically, which is kind of contradictory.
0
Rakas21
Badges: 21
Rep:
? You'll earn badges for being active around the site. Rep gems come when your posts are rated by other community members.
#15
Report 6 years ago
#15
(Original post by ILovePancakes)
Oh wow, I didn't know that. Do you know how many UK citizens migrate to the same country?

They might, but maybe HSBC expects them to work forever :moon:

I'm mixed raced. You ruined my thread :angry:

It confuses me because according to the DTM, stages 4/5 reflect a more 'developed' society. Yet I think that here, HSBC is implying that a youthful population is more beneficial economically, which is kind of contradictory.
No idea. I know that Australia and Spain are the top two destinations for emigration from the UK.

The top two for immigration are actually China and India with Poland third.

What's DTM?

A youthful population is better in the sense that there are a higher number of workers to pensioners. More taxpayers in essence.
0
IFoundWonderland
Badges: 19
Rep:
? You'll earn badges for being active around the site. Rep gems come when your posts are rated by other community members.
#16
Report Thread starter 6 years ago
#16
(Original post by Rakas21)
No idea. I know that Australia and Spain are the top two destinations for emigration from the UK.

The top two for immigration are actually China and India with Poland third.
I know a lot of retired people move to Spain for the sunshine, but I expect that movement to Australia might be more economically motivated.
0
paul514
Badges: 21
Rep:
? You'll earn badges for being active around the site. Rep gems come when your posts are rated by other community members.
#17
Report 6 years ago
#17
(Original post by Rakas21)
Technically true but somewhat irrelevant until you run out of immigrants to come here (which won't happen for decades if not into the next century).
Simply no, there will always be immigrants who want to come here.

The comment is made from a point of view of sustainability for us as a nation.


Posted from TSR Mobile
0
scrotgrot
Badges: 16
Rep:
? You'll earn badges for being active around the site. Rep gems come when your posts are rated by other community members.
#18
Report 6 years ago
#18
(Original post by ILovePancakes)
<http://uk.businessinsider.com/hsbc-eu-migration-note-europe-needs-immigrants-for-to-pay-pensions-raise-tax-receipts-and-increase-the-workforce-2015-10>

I think that whilst this holds some truth, it fails to take into account the demographics of the refugees:

51.1% are younger then 17
28.5% are younger than 12
Those of working age (18-59) make up only 45.7%; with 23.9% women and 21.8% male.

<http://www.factcheck.org/2015/09/stretching-facts-on-syrian-refugees/>

I think that this has the potential to put more strain on resources? We are assuming that those of working age can work and perhaps are even skilled workers. Granted, the children will grow up and can then contribute economically when they reach working age, but in the meantime, surely that will put a strain on the education and healthcare systems. As well as this, if the children grow up, so will the adults and so we will still have lots of old people and continued pressure on healthcare etc. Also, would refugees of pension age get a pension? Hmm..

Jobs would also have to be created - Greece's unemployment rate in 2014 was 28.80%; Spain's 24.30%; Croatia's 21.00%. (<https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2129rank.html#cj> It doesn't appear as though the migrants will be able to just arrive and work. Indeed, the EU may already host these workers that HSBC claim we need.

Unemployment rate: compares the percent of the labour force that is without jobs.

I still haven't really established my own opinion of the refugee crisis, but thought that it was interesting. Stumbled across the article this morning, which led me to Google the demographics.

What do you think? :holmes:
Somewhat, this is why European immigration is better than rest of world and the only net contributing class of people. They generally come here singly just to work and plan to go back before retirement. Rest of world bring families over and stay forever.

As for the refugees themselves there are far too few of them to really worry about economic effects, just disperse them around and give them what they need.

As for work a refugee creates demand just like anyone else so the same jobs should spring up in response as if it was a native. Especially if they are to live here indefinitely. The downside of the Europeans in my view is they are less likely to participate in the consumer economy
0
scrotgrot
Badges: 16
Rep:
? You'll earn badges for being active around the site. Rep gems come when your posts are rated by other community members.
#19
Report 6 years ago
#19
(Original post by paul514)
Even if what they were saying about uncontrolled migration was true which it isn't you can't simply keep expanding the population to pay for the people already there as they get old and apparently need even more working age to pay for them etc.


Posted from TSR Mobile
Yeah but I only care about my generation and maybe 2 either side. Why should we be the ones who pay for it all with a deflating population?

Plus there is plenty of land in the UK which is only 7% developed and only 2% actually built on IIRC

We can keep the train on the tracks for a long long time.

With population increase at 1% per year which is a high estimate since the war we would still be under 20% developed, 6% built on in 100 years' time, though at tht point we might have to take a serious look at it as we would be rapidly filling up within the 100 years after that
0
TheCitizenAct
Badges: 2
Rep:
? You'll earn badges for being active around the site. Rep gems come when your posts are rated by other community members.
#20
Report 6 years ago
#20
So, we've got more people and the logic stipulates that to pay for these people we need to import more people. Who pays for the more people when they age? More people? Who pays for the more people when the more people brought into prop up the more people age?

Where does it end? Oh, it doesn't. Why? Because it's about quality, not quantity.
0
X
new posts
Back
to top
Latest
My Feed

See more of what you like on
The Student Room

You can personalise what you see on TSR. Tell us a little about yourself to get started.

Personalise

Have you ever considered or are you currently considering an apprenticeship?

Yes, I am actively considering an apprenticeship (79)
13.57%
I am actively considering an alternative to uni that isn't an apprenticeship (11)
1.89%
I have considered an apprenticeship but it's not for me (147)
25.26%
I am considering a degree apprenticeship (47)
8.08%
I haven't considered an apprenticeship (280)
48.11%
Something else (let us know in the thread!) (18)
3.09%

Watched Threads

View All