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Prediction under new boundary changes Con 370 Lab 180 watch

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    The lords just, JUST passed the new boundary changes. Based on how people voted in 2015 the result would be Con 370 Lab 158.* Sorry incorrect in title.

    This assumes reduction to 600 MPs which may not happen.

    Still, Corbyn just needs to target those non-voters, right?

    http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/userpoll.html
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    (Original post by skeptical_john)
    The lords just, JUST passed the new boundary changes. Based on how people voted in 2015 the result would be Con 370 Lab 158.* Sorry incorrect in title.

    This assumes reduction to 600 MPs which may not happen.

    Still, Corbyn just needs to target those non-voters, right?

    http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/userpoll.html
    They are running scared had to change the boundaries so they will win in 2020. Has it even gone through the commons
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    (Original post by ZZTop1)
    They are running scared had to change the boundaries so they will win in 2020. Has it even gone through the commons
    Were Blair and Thatcher scared when they changed the boundaries with majorities already over 100.
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    (Original post by Rakas21)
    Were Blair and Thatcher scared when they changed the boundaries with majorities already over 100.
    No but Cameron is. As he is weaker than both Blair and thatcher, thatbpoint is invalid. He won due to SNP and UKIP notably the latter because a lot of disgruntled labour voters in my area went into anti establishment mode and voted UKIP however it was a Lab hold and has been like that since creation
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    (Original post by ZZTop1)
    They are running scared had to change the boundaries so they will win in 2020. Has it even gone through the commons
    Conservatives are doing quite nicely in the polls and I don't see many Tories worrying about 2020...

    The only party worrying about 2020 is Labour.
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    (Original post by ZZTop1)
    He won due to SNP and UKIP
    The Conservatives won because:

    - of the collapse of Labour in Scotland, caused by disgruntled voters and the referendum
    - the collapse of the Lib Dems and the fact they were second in most of their constituencies
    - Labour's failure to attract middle-England voters
    - Labour's failure to adopt a coherent answer for their track record on the economy
    - the Conservatives' successes in job creation, economic growth and overall progress of the UK (from gay marriage to lower crime rates)


    (sorry to take the thread off topic)
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    (Original post by jamestg)
    The Conservatives won because:

    - of the collapse of Labour in Scotland, caused by disgruntled voters and the referendum
    - the collapse of the Lib Dems and the fact they were second in most of their constituencies
    - Labour's failure to attract middle-England voters
    - Labour's failure to adopt a coherent answer for their track record on the economy
    - the Conservatives' successes in job creation, economic growth and overall progress of the UK (from gay marriage to lower crime rates)i


    (sorry to take the thread off topic)
    The SNP and UKIP had a lot to do with it before you even look into it in any relative depth. I think Corbyn knows he is only there 2 years max. He has been told if he does bad in the councillor elections he is a goner.I know this has no relation but before the next election i can almost guarantee Labour will be back to the Blairite agenda. Why is this? I think middle class labour voters/ex labour voters will sabotage Corbyn's position then I think it will be Chucka to the rescue. I believe tge conservatives are also good at breaking promises ie. The tax credits one, i believe that got them there majority to cary out the real agenda. I have slated the Liberals in the past, but they were the compassionate ones in the coalition before tge conservative majority and they would have voted against the government on that issue.Would you agred in saying that angry liberaks voted tory under the rhetoric that in the 2010 election they voted liberal and got tory, i know a few liberaks who votec tory because they did not trust the liberals because Clegg jumped into bed with Cameron. As for Labour being worried i think it may be similar to 92'. Not going to comment on other that the MI5 swayed it in favour of Major.
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    (Original post by skeptical_john)
    The lords just, JUST passed the new boundary changes. Based on how people voted in 2015 the result would be Con 370 Lab 158.* Sorry incorrect in title.

    This assumes reduction to 600 MPs which may not happen.

    Still, Corbyn just needs to target those non-voters, right?

    http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/userpoll.html
    Boundary reviews are supposed to happen every 8 to 12 years (until recent legislation has reduced this to 5 years).

    The review that started in 2011 was supposed to be complete by 2015 but was killed off by Labour and the Liberals in 2013. The Labour Party pulled the same trick in 1969. The process has just been restarted.

    Leaving aside the island constituencies which are treated differently for geographical reasons, the largest constituency has 91,987 voters and the smallest has 40,492.
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    158, oh Jezza....
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    (Original post by balanced)
    158, oh Jezza....
    This is based on last years election and would have nothing to do with Corbyn.
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    (Original post by United1892)
    This is based on last years election and would have nothing to do with Corbyn.
    Not what I was getting at. I was saying how he has got the worst platform to try to sort out labour's mess atm.
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    The Conservatives are simply balancing the system after Labour imported millions of voters...it's only fair...

    Also the far left overestimate their popularity by far.
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    Supreme Leader is supreme!
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    (Original post by balanced)
    Not what I was getting at. I was saying how he has got the worst platform to try to sort out labour's mess atm.
    It's going to be even more difficult for UKIP. to get those desperately needed MPs...
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    (Original post by skeptical_john)
    It's going to be even more difficult for UKIP. to get those desperately needed MPs...
    Does that change Labour's position?
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    (Original post by balanced)
    Does that change Labour's position?
    It just means there will be less cracks for UKIP to exploit. Seats will either be hard Labour or Tory.
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    (Original post by skeptical_john)
    It just means there will be less cracks for UKIP to exploit. Seats will either be hard Labour or Tory.
    True.
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    It's pretty outrageous that despite winning 51% of the seats with 36% of the vote, the Tories still consider the system is somehow unfair to them and demand it must be gerrymandered yet further. It speaks volumes about their values, or lack thereof.

    That they then are saying that millions of retirees on the Costa Del Sol who haven't lived here for 20 years should also get a vote (while stripping the electoral rolls of two million more voters who may have forgotten to re-register) I think crosses the line from the normal cut and thrust of politics to something that is genuinely corrupt. And then the final gift to themselves; cutting off Labour's funding from the trade unions, a fundamentally illiberal and self-serving act.

    I'm not the type to shriek "Evil Tory scum" or to say everything is a conspiracy. I find that mindset irritating. But in these cases, the Tories clearly are ensuring they alter the system in every way possible to try to fix the next election in their favour. It's disgusting.

    For the Tories to whine about the alleged unfairness of a system that delivers them a majority with 36% of the votes, while UKIP (no favourites of mine) get less than a handful of seats with millions of votes is astonishingly corrupt and it shows that the old patrician sense of noblesse oblige, or genuine responsibility, that used to reside in the Conservative Party is dead. The Conservative Party used to be lead by the cream of the upper-class; now it's run by the dregs of the middle class.
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    It will be postal fraud to the rescue for the tories again in 2020
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    (Original post by SignFromDog)
    It's pretty outrageous that despite winning 51% of the seats with 36% of the vote, the Tories still consider the system is somehow unfair to them and demand it must be gerrymandered yet further. It speaks volumes about their values, or lack thereof.

    That they then are saying that millions of retirees on the Costa Del Sol who haven't lived here for 20 years should also get a vote (while stripping the electoral rolls of two million more voters who may have forgotten to re-register) I think crosses the line from the normal cut and thrust of politics to something that is genuinely corrupt. And then the final gift to themselves; cutting off Labour's funding from the trade unions, a fundamentally illiberal and self-serving act.

    I'm not the type to shriek "Evil Tory scum" or to say everything is a conspiracy. I find that mindset irritating. But in these cases, the Tories clearly are ensuring they alter the system in every way possible to try to fix the next election in their favour. It's disgusting.

    For the Tories to whine about the alleged unfairness of a system that delivers them a majority with 36% of the votes, while UKIP (no favourites of mine) get less than a handful of seats with millions of votes is astonishingly corrupt and it shows that the old patrician sense of noblesse oblige, or genuine responsibility, that used to reside in the Conservative Party is dead. The Conservative Party used to be lead by the cream of the upper-class; now it's run by the dregs of the middle class.
    If I could rep this ten times over I would.
    Now this we're in full agreement!
 
 
 
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