UK: Massive Population Increase

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newpersonage
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The ONS has just released its population projections http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/npp/na...ab-Main-points

The UK population will grow to 70m by 2027 (from 64.6m today)

The population increase is due to migration: 68% due to net migration and 100% due to immigration.

Housing 5.4 m people in 12 years would require a city the size of Birmingham to be built every 2.5 years. The UK has gone insane.
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username1799249
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For a bit of balance, the question was asked on Radio 4's PM programme last night "How accurate have these figures been in the past?"

Turns out that in the 1930's the government thought the population would be about 10 million by the 70's. One of their more recent big estimates was 10 million too big.

It isn't stated on the main points page, but the ONS do give themselves a pretty large margin for error. After all, the things that influence population are birth rate, death rate and migration. All things that fluctuate wildly over the short term.
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newpersonage
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(Original post by ByEeek)
For a bit of balance, the question was asked on Radio 4's PM programme last night "How accurate have these figures been in the past?"

Turns out that in the 1930's the government thought the population would be about 10 million by the 70's. One of their more recent big estimates was 10 million too big.

It isn't stated on the main points page, but the ONS do give themselves a pretty large margin for error. After all, the things that influence population are birth rate, death rate and migration. All things that fluctuate wildly over the short term.
The ONS is only looking 13 years into the future. We already know that net migration is c.300,000 a year and immigration is c.600,000. We know that over a quarter of new births are to foreign born mothers. If migration carries on as at present the figures are rock solid.

However, if net migration were reduced to near zero the figures would be radically different, that's the way to go. One might also suspect that if the UK votes "IN" in the EU referendum the numbers for net migration will increase.
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SignFromDog
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It's hardly massive. Our population was 55 million in 1945. 40% population growth over 80 years is hardly excessive
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Arbolus
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Too many immigrants is one way of looking at it. On the other hand, if you break down these figures by age then it appears that the biggest change will be in the number of elderly folk, and that all immigration is doing is keeping the number of working age people from falling.

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i<3milkshake
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(Original post by newpersonage)
The ONS has just released its population projections http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/npp/na...ab-Main-points

The UK population will grow to 70m by 2027 (from 64.6m today)

The population increase is due to migration: 68% due to net migration and 100% due to immigration.

Housing 5.4 m people in 12 years would require a city the size of Birmingham to be built every 2.5 years. The UK has gone insane.
Building a Birmingham is 1) very difficult due to the sheer scale of the operation but more importantly perhaps
2) very undesirable as it would be an absolute dump. This new area would be like Birmingham and many areas of London that have seen mass immigration.

Even if these new cities are possible I would personally never want to live there.
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Betelgeuse-
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(Original post by Arbolus)
Too many immigrants is one way of looking at it. On the other hand, if you break down these figures by age then it appears that the biggest change will be in the number of elderly folk, and that all immigration is doing is keeping the number of working age people from falling.

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At what number is too much? When a 10 mile journey takes everybody 1 hour due to sheer volume of traffic? When we have no farmland and countryside after being forced to build on it to accommodate a huge population?


"and that all immigration is doing is keeping the number of working age people from falling."

Just going to have an even larger non working population in 2050, and then 2100 ... Meaning a huge amount more immigrants and young people needed.. and the cycle rolls on growing and growing. Throw in increasing automation and robots etc .. Future looks bad
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anarchism101
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(Original post by Betelgeuse-)
Just going to have an even larger non working population in 2050, and then 2100 ... Meaning a huge amount more immigrants and young people needed.
Actually, possibly less so, as immigrants in general have higher birth rates and are less likely to stay permanently.
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billydisco
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(Original post by Arbolus)
Too many immigrants is one way of looking at it. On the other hand, if you break down these figures by age then it appears that the biggest change will be in the number of elderly folk, and that all immigration is doing is keeping the number of working age people from falling.

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Do you realise your argument is a slippery slope? Working age people grow old too....
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paul514
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(Original post by newpersonage)
The ONS has just released its population projections http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/npp/na...ab-Main-points

The UK population will grow to 70m by 2027 (from 64.6m today)

The population increase is due to migration: 68% due to net migration and 100% due to immigration.

Housing 5.4 m people in 12 years would require a city the size of Birmingham to be built every 2.5 years. The UK has gone insane.
Yep so vote to leave the eu


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Arbolus
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(Original post by billydisco)
Do you realise your argument is a slippery slope? Working age people grow old too....
I realise that. But if the problem can be delayed long enough then it's likely that the problem will solve itself naturally, as the countries which immigrants come from become more developed and medical advances allow people to work longer, whereas we cannot cope if we simply block immigration now and allow the existing workforce to develop naturally.
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billydisco
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(Original post by Arbolus)
I realise that. But if the problem can be delayed long enough then it's likely that the problem will solve itself naturally, as the countries which immigrants come from become more developed and medical advances allow people to work longer, whereas we cannot cope if we simply block immigration now and allow the existing workforce to develop naturally.
How about this:

-Working-age people save for their retirement
-Stop admitting low-skilled immigrants who sponge more than their contribute

=More money for the Government to spend on public services for the elderly
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paul514
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(Original post by billydisco)
How about this:

-Working-age people save for their retirement
-Stop admitting low-skilled immigrants who sponge more than their contribute

=More money for the Government to spend on public services for the elderly
Lol people can't even afford to buy houses never mind save for retirement


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Howard
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(Original post by ByEeek)
For a bit of balance, the question was asked on Radio 4's PM programme last night "How accurate have these figures been in the past?"

Turns out that in the 1930's the government thought the population would be about 10 million by the 70's.
That would be a neat trick since the 1931 census reported the population of England and Wales as 39.9 million. Were they anticipating a plague?
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Rakas21
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That's not really a problem to me, I'm fine with a larger population. Infrastructure can be built.
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Sparkly Star
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(Original post by Rakas21)
That's not really a problem to me, I'm fine with a larger population. Infrastructure can be built.
You are not ethnic British though so why would you care. Your viewpoint is irrelevent tbh
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Rakas21
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(Original post by Sparkly Star)
You are not ethnic British though so why would you care. Your viewpoint is irrelevent tbh
I can assure you that I'm about as British as they come. No immigrant blood that I'm aware of.

Your assertion is unfounded and a giant leap.
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Sparkly Star
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(Original post by Rakas21)
I can assure you that I'm about as British as they come. No immigrant blood that I'm aware of.

Your assertion is unfounded and a giant leap.
i was of the impression that you were a Turk, maybe i was wrong?
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Maker
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We should import some serial killers to lower the population.
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Rakas21
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(Original post by Sparkly Star)
i was of the impression that you were a Turk, maybe i was wrong?
You've never seen my posts regarding Islam have you..

I'm a white Brit, capitalist and western supremacist. I support high immigration, a higher native birthrate and value power.

The main thing I disagree with with regards to immigration is this diversity rubbish. Bring in more Europeans and people from the Anglosphere, cut off the importation of those who are not culturally and ethnically one of us (Muslims and Africans).
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