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Oldham West and Royton by-election Watch
After yesterday's vote, many people have forgotten about this important by-election.
This seat is a safe Labour seat, and since 1950 - it has only returned one non-Labour MP (a conservative). However this is the first electoral test for Corbyn, and a predicted surge for UKIP and vote share gain for the tories - Labour's majority could either be significantly reduced, or even wiped out giving a small UKIP majority (thus returning a UKIP MP).
2015 Election Result
Lab - 55%
UKIP - 21%
Cons - 19%
Lib Dems - 4%
Others - 1%
2015 by-election Election Prediction (latest poll figures, using electoral calculus)
Lab - 52% (-3%)
UKIP - 23% (+2%)
Cons - 21% (+2%)
Lib Dems - 3% (-1%)
Others - 1% (NC)
jamestg Prediction
Lab - 43% (-12%)
UKIP - 31% (+10%)
Cons - 22% (+3%)
Lib Dems - 3% (-1%)
Others - 1% (NC)
What do you predict? Do you think yesterday's vote and/or Corbyn will have an impact?
This seat is a safe Labour seat, and since 1950 - it has only returned one non-Labour MP (a conservative). However this is the first electoral test for Corbyn, and a predicted surge for UKIP and vote share gain for the tories - Labour's majority could either be significantly reduced, or even wiped out giving a small UKIP majority (thus returning a UKIP MP).
2015 Election Result
Lab - 55%
UKIP - 21%
Cons - 19%
Lib Dems - 4%
Others - 1%
2015 by-election Election Prediction (latest poll figures, using electoral calculus)
Lab - 52% (-3%)
UKIP - 23% (+2%)
Cons - 21% (+2%)
Lib Dems - 3% (-1%)
Others - 1% (NC)
jamestg Prediction
Lab - 43% (-12%)
UKIP - 31% (+10%)
Cons - 22% (+3%)
Lib Dems - 3% (-1%)
Others - 1% (NC)
What do you predict? Do you think yesterday's vote and/or Corbyn will have an impact?
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#2
(Original post by jamestg)
After yesterday's vote, many people have forgotten about this important by-election.
This seat is a safe Labour seat, and since 1950 - it has only returned one non-Labour MP (a conservative). However this is the first electoral test for Corbyn, and a predicted surge for UKIP and vote share gain for the tories - Labour's majority could either be significantly reduced, or even wiped out giving a small UKIP majority (thus returning a UKIP MP).
2015 Election Result
Lab - 55%
UKIP - 21%
Cons - 19%
Lib Dems - 4%
Others - 1%
2015 by-election Election Prediction (latest poll figures, using electoral calculus)
Lab - 52% (-3%)
UKIP - 23% (+2%)
Cons - 21% (+2%)
Lib Dems - 3% (-1%)
Others - 1% (NC)
jamestg Prediction
Lab - 43% (-12%)
UKIP - 31% (+10%)
Cons - 22% (+3%)
Lib Dems - 3% (-1%)
Others - 1% (NC)
What do you predict? Do you think yesterday's vote and/or Corbyn will have an impact?
After yesterday's vote, many people have forgotten about this important by-election.
This seat is a safe Labour seat, and since 1950 - it has only returned one non-Labour MP (a conservative). However this is the first electoral test for Corbyn, and a predicted surge for UKIP and vote share gain for the tories - Labour's majority could either be significantly reduced, or even wiped out giving a small UKIP majority (thus returning a UKIP MP).
2015 Election Result
Lab - 55%
UKIP - 21%
Cons - 19%
Lib Dems - 4%
Others - 1%
2015 by-election Election Prediction (latest poll figures, using electoral calculus)
Lab - 52% (-3%)
UKIP - 23% (+2%)
Cons - 21% (+2%)
Lib Dems - 3% (-1%)
Others - 1% (NC)
jamestg Prediction
Lab - 43% (-12%)
UKIP - 31% (+10%)
Cons - 22% (+3%)
Lib Dems - 3% (-1%)
Others - 1% (NC)
What do you predict? Do you think yesterday's vote and/or Corbyn will have an impact?
I actually think that a pretty good prediction.
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(Original post by Davij038)
I actually think that a pretty good prediction.
I actually think that a pretty good prediction.
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#4
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#5
Good to see some other election nerds round here. 
Lab - 40
UKIP - 34
Con - 21
Lib - 4
Green - 1
MRLP - 0
Posted from TSR Mobile
Lab - 40
UKIP - 34
Con - 21
Lib - 4
Green - 1
MRLP - 0
Posted from TSR Mobile
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#6
(Original post by jamestg)
Labour's majority could either be significantly reduced, or even wiped out giving a small UKIP majority (thus returning a UKIP MP).
Labour's majority could either be significantly reduced, or even wiped out giving a small UKIP majority (thus returning a UKIP MP).
Unless I'm missing something!
Have there been any opinion polls done in the constituency since the election?
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(Original post by SHallowvale)
Could be, but I don't see what all the fuss is about since Labour are predicted to win by a majority of votes (52%, as you've said)?
Unless I'm missing something!
Have there been any opinion polls done in the constituency since the election?
Could be, but I don't see what all the fuss is about since Labour are predicted to win by a majority of votes (52%, as you've said)?
Unless I'm missing something!
Have there been any opinion polls done in the constituency since the election?
I've got no idea about polls in the constituency, but I assume so. I'll have a google!
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(Original post by Krollo)
Good to see some other election nerds round here.
Lab - 40
UKIP - 34
Con - 21
Lib - 4
Green - 1
MRLP - 0
Posted from TSR Mobile
Good to see some other election nerds round here.
Lab - 40
UKIP - 34
Con - 21
Lib - 4
Green - 1
MRLP - 0
Posted from TSR Mobile
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#9
A lot of Tory voters will lend their vote to UKIP so the majority will certainly be reduced.
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#10
(Original post by Bornblue)
A lot of Tory voters will lend their vote to UKIP so the majority will certtainly be reduced.
A lot of Tory voters will lend their vote to UKIP so the majority will certtainly be reduced.
Definatley an interesting contest.
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#11
(Original post by Davij038)
I think as well there'll be a few Tories voting labour especially as they've got a decent centrist candidate, corbyn or no.
Definatley an interesting contest.
I think as well there'll be a few Tories voting labour especially as they've got a decent centrist candidate, corbyn or no.
Definatley an interesting contest.
I reckon the majority will go down by about half but that's normal in a by election.
Would have been far more interesting if it was a tory-labour marginal.
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#12
I think Labour will take a majority, but maybe only just. It was close in the Heywood by-election when their MP died, but I think Oldham is slightly more Lab/less UKIP than Heywood, even if only a little.
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(Original post by Bornblue)
I don't think it's going to tell us too much unless UKIP win or come incredibly close.
I reckon the majority will go down by about half but that's normal in a by election.
Would have been far more interesting if it was a tory-labour marginal.
I don't think it's going to tell us too much unless UKIP win or come incredibly close.
I reckon the majority will go down by about half but that's normal in a by election.
Would have been far more interesting if it was a tory-labour marginal.
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#16
Prediction:
Lab - 63%
UKIP - 21%
Con - 10%
Others - 6%
EDIT: Should clarify that these are my predictions. Lib Dems (They seem to be prolific tweeters in Oldham have Lab on 62 and UKIP on 23).
Lab - 63%
UKIP - 21%
Con - 10%
Others - 6%
EDIT: Should clarify that these are my predictions. Lib Dems (They seem to be prolific tweeters in Oldham have Lab on 62 and UKIP on 23).
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(Original post by TheArtofProtest)
Sources saying Labour have got over 60% of the vote.
Sources saying Labour have got over 60% of the vote.
If they maintain, or even slightly increase, their majority it will be down to a low turnout (20% lower than in May) and a very strong Labour Party candidate.
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#19
(Original post by jamestg)
I highly doubt that, they didn't even get that in 1997.
If they maintain, or even slightly increase, their majority it will be down to a low turnout (20% lower than in May) and a very strong Labour Party candidate.
I highly doubt that, they didn't even get that in 1997.
If they maintain, or even slightly increase, their majority it will be down to a low turnout (20% lower than in May) and a very strong Labour Party candidate.
Following it on the Guardian. I understand BBC also has rolling coverage.
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