You know what I want/well anything that's best for my people even if that means Assad in power
Hmm you have to configure the interests of all the parties involved. I think you're very lucky Russia got involved. But that's not to say Russia is the only one that can be trusted.
Interestingly, Putin hates Assad on a personal level. And there are indications that the Russians have said that Putin is not indispensable, they are willing to consider a transition.
The real question is whether the Free Syrian Army will agree to the proposed transition. Eventually it will come down to how many regime elements are allowed to remain in Syria, that they can participate in elections etc.
Ultimately, no solution to the ISIL problem can occur without getting rid of Assad. It was his corruption and incompetence, his slaughter of his own people, that led to this nightmare.
So why is Russia /Putin out here talking about Allah took the sanity of the Turkish government after there were rumours about them buying oil from the terrorist group? His own friend is going the same thing. What a hypocrite
The Russians are bombing Al-Qaida (Free Syrian Army) into dust, and this will allow ISIS to advance against them.
Calling the Free Syrian Army al-Qaeda is laughable propaganda.
Either you are being utterly dishonest, are you are incredibly ignorant of the facts on the ground. There are plenty of nationalist factions on the ground within the FSA; the people of Kafranbel, 13th Division, Falcons of Al Ghab, amongst others.
Al-Qaeda is Al-Nusra and ISIL. If you didn't know that, then you don't know enough about the conflict to comment
Interestingly, Putin hates Assad on a personal level. And there are indications that the Russians have said that Putin is not indispensable, they are willing to consider a transition.
The real question is whether the Free Syrian Army will agree to the proposed transition. Eventually it will come down to how many regime elements are allowed to remain in Syria, that they can participate in elections etc.
Ultimately, no solution to the ISIL problem can occur without getting rid of Assad. It was his corruption and incompetence, his slaughter of his own people, that led to this nightmare.
Exactly my point. For ISIS to go,we must first remove Assad from the equation. I was actually gonna make a thread on that
Exactly my point. For ISIS to go,we must first remove Assad from the equation. I was actually gonna make a thread on that
My feelings is that this can be pursued on a dual-track (and that's how the Western governments are doing it at the moment). They are increasing support to reliable FSA factions through the CIA covert support programme to Syrian opposition.
The idea is that we will continue to strike ISIL, while pursuing the Vienna talks that will eventually lead to Assad stepping down and elections in Syria. I think that's the best we have; there are no good options, but I think that's the least worst.
Nonsense. Koi The Assad regime is ISIL's largest source of income; Assad buys up a large proportion of the illicit oil that Daesh pulls out of the ground
Yeah, well I don't think the strikes will fail completely as such, but they may be ineffective given how much taxpayers money will be invested in this over the coming years. But personally, if innocent people are killed, then in my eyes the motion is deemed more of a failure, that's just not right. In today's world, the battle should be fought online - propaganda is way more of a threat. If your'e gonna destroy ISIS, you have to destroy it's online presence, it's ideology.
Anonymous is already doing that though; the government doesn't need to get its hands dirty on that front when somebody is already doing it voluntarily.
My feelings is that this can be pursued on a dual-track (and that's how the Western governments are doing it at the moment). They are increasing support to reliable FSA factions through the CIA covert support programme to Syrian opposition.
The idea is that we will continue to strike ISIL, while pursuing the Vienna talks that will eventually lead to Assad stepping down and elections in Syria. I think that's the best we have; there are no good options, but I think that's the least worst.
How do you get rid of a leader that doesn't want to step down? If Assad truly cared about Syrians he would have done so a long time ago
Calling the Free Syrian Army al-Qaeda is laughable propaganda.
Either you are being utterly dishonest, are you are incredibly ignorant of the facts on the ground. There are plenty of nationalist factions on the ground within the FSA; the people of Kafranbel, 13th Division, Falcons of Al Ghab, amongst others.
Al-Qaeda is Al-Nusra and ISIL. If you didn't know that, then you don't know enough about the conflict to comment
It's well known that the moderate elements have long ago dispersed. The Kurdish leader views the situation as Al-Q, ISIL and Assad. Most maps by major news agencies quietly include Al-Nusra with the non-existent FSA.
So the FSA are a confirmed extremist group? I thought that was propaganda against them
Check out the Kurdish leader's statements on the matter. His movement originally rebelled from Assad, but now back him as the alternatives are far worse.
So why is Russia /Putin out here talking about Allah took the sanity of the Turkish government after there were rumours about them buying oil from the terrorist group? His own friend is going the same thing. What a hypocrite
The problem is that in some ways, the Russians are right (though their presentation on the oil was total propaganda; they actually took pictures of Kurdish trucks and claimed they were ISIL trucks).
The Assad regime has been extremely duplicitous. In mid-2011, they released thousands of jihadis from prison knowing they would rise up against him, and he could portray all opposition as terrorists. He also has a trade deal with ISIL where he buys oil from them very cheaply (and distributes it in areas he controls to the population at low prices, to buy their loyalty). Through this deal he also provides electricity to ISIL that keeps the lights on in Raqqa.
Essentially, ISIL and Assad had a tacit ceasefire deal. Sometimes ISIL would break it and attack his forces and capture a new town, but Assad would never respond (that's how Palmyra fell, the regime didn't even try to defend it). It's because Assad knows that if he can allow ISIL to grow, the more it looks to the international community that it's a choice between him and ISIL.
We must not allow him to get away with that blackmail. Another problem though is that the Turks have been helping ISIL, they kept their borders open allowing tens of thousands of jihadis to pass through Turkey. When Abu Sayyaf was killed by American special forces, they found documents in his house of contacts between ISIL and senior Turkish intelligence officers.
In my view, the only guys we can really count on are the Kurds, and the nationalist/secular factions of the FSA. We have to support them both, and keep pushing actively against ISIL, and more indirectly against Assad so that the Russians and Iranians eventually conclude Assad must step down
Check out the Kurdish leader's statements on the matter. His movement originally rebelled from Assad, but now back him as the alternatives are far worse.
Ah minorities are much safer under Assad for sure.
How do you get rid of a leader that doesn't want to step down? If Assad truly cared about Syrians he would have done so a long time ago
You have to appeal to the self-interest of mid-level regime supporters. Not the inner circle of Assad, but the next level down; brigade commanders, senior civil servants, businessmen. They have to see that unless the core of the regime is pushed out, they too will be on the chopping block
And realistically, we need those people too. And the FSA will have to swallow some of their pride, because we simply cannot allow the Syrian state to collapse the way the Iraqi state did. A well-planned transition will see Assad and his core supporters leave the country to live in Russia or Iran. A transitional council of FSA, Kurdish and certain elements of the regime will rule for 12 - 18 months until elections can be held (and you do need a bit of time otherwise the regime would win the elections, you have to let refugees return).
I think that's the best way. It won't be perfect, each side will feel they are giving up a lot. But I feel like at this point neither side can win by force. Once FSA, Kurds and regime form a ruling council, we can send in ground forces at their invitation to help root out Nusra and ISIL. We should also send in a lot of money for reconstruction.