Ggdf
Badges: 6
Rep:
? You'll earn badges for being active around the site. Rep gems come when your posts are rated by other community members.
#1
Report Thread starter 6 years ago
#1
Hello there

I wonder if anyone might please be able to advise me?

I've been given the following question to answer on Prosecutor's fallacy:

Question 5 (10 marks): The “prosecutor’s fallacy” commonly crops up when considering DNA fingerprinting evidence. Consider the following scenario: DNA fingerprinting evidence from a crime scene in the UK indicates that 1 in 10,000 people will match the DNA profile found at the crime scene. For the purposes of this exercise assume that the frequencies of the alleles used do not deviate between different subpopulations of the UK, and that the crime was committed by someone from the UK. On DNA fingerprinting evidence alone what is the approximate probability that a suspect with a matching DNA profile is innocent of the crime? Explain your reasoning in 50 words or less.

I wonder if I have gone the correct way about calculating this ...

I first of all looked up the UK population. This earlier today was 65009664 (it changes every hour).
To find the number of suspects, I then did the calculation 65009664/10000 = 6500.9664
To find the number of innocent suspects, I then did: 6500.9664 - 1 = 6599.9664

Finally, I did the calculation
P (innocent|evidence) = 6499.9664/6500.9664 = 0.99984617671 or 99.98%

I'd be very appreciative if anyone could please steer me right.

Thank you
0
reply
X

Quick Reply

Attached files
Write a reply...
Reply
new posts
Back
to top
Latest
My Feed

See more of what you like on
The Student Room

You can personalise what you see on TSR. Tell us a little about yourself to get started.

Personalise

Y13's - If you haven't confirmed your firm and insurance choices yet, why is that?

I am waiting until the deadline in case anything in my life changes (18)
21.18%
I am waiting until the deadline in case something else changes (e.g. exams/pandemic related concerns) (11)
12.94%
I am waiting until I can see the unis in person (5)
5.88%
I still have more questions before I make my decision (15)
17.65%
No reason, just haven't entered it yet (17)
20%
Something else (let us know in the thread!) (19)
22.35%

Watched Threads

View All