Premature Premonition - UK General Election 2020 - DISCUSSION Watch

Poll: Who will win the 2020 UK General Election?
Conservatives (13)
46.43%
Labour (12)
42.86%
Lib Dems (0)
0%
UKIP (3)
10.71%
SNP (0)
0%
Green Party (0)
0%
Other (0)
0%
Hans_301
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#1
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#1
Anyone wanna hazard a wild educated guess at who'll win the 2020 general election?
Anyone wanna see a coalition.
Corbyn or Cameron.
Will Cameron still be the leader come 2020? - Has The Syria air-strikes harmed his repuation?
Will Corbyn have the full support of his own party?
Who would you like to see in power?
Who do you NOT want to see.

So much possibility. So many questions?
Fire away.

I'd like to know your views, questions, hopes and fears - as brief or as in-depth as you like. Any input is appreciated. This thread will grow over the years for sure. Be one of the first to respond and take the credit for having making your correct prediction before anyone else.
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Tempest II
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#2
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The PM has already said he'll step down before the Election. So it'll probably be George Obsorne, Theresa May, Boris Johnson or someone else leading the Tories. If I'm honest, I'm not sure if any of those 3 really fill me with masses of belief at this time. I'd say I like Boris most out of those but I'm not sold on him 100%.

If Corbyn makes it to 2020 I'd be very surprised. If he wins the GE I'll eat my hat. If Labour have a new more central leader they stand a good chance if the UK's economy isn't doing particularly well or if any other issue has arisen that makes the Tories unpopular. They Conservatives could even tear themsevles apart over Europe which'd give Labour a bigger chance. There's a few members of the Labour party who could be successful. Alan Johnson & Tristan Hunt both seem decent & if Labour put together a decent team with central then policies then I wouldn't rule out voting for them. I'd happily take a Monster Raving Loony Party over Corbyn though.

I'd say UKIP will no longer be particularly relevant as the EU question will have been dealt with one way or the other... Unless they rebrand themselves fighting for another issue.

The Lib Dems will do well if Corbyn stays in power & scares centre voters who won't vote Tory. Otherwise they'll probably stay fairly small.

The SNP Vs Westminister battle could turn quite ugly if the UK votes to leave the EU against the Scottish electorate's wishes. I don't even want to try to predict that one.
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Ace123
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#3
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#3
God help us if Corbyn gets in
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Davij038
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#4
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I think a well timed moderate coup, preferably relatively bloodless could work wonders for labour. I can't see corbyn willingly stepping down though.

I think Boris is on track to win Tory leadership, which is a shame cos politics aside I'm an Osborne fan. I think we've entered a new era of politics with cults being formed for Boris, Nigel, corbyn And Caroline Lucas.


I think we'll vote to stay in the EU by a bout five percent. The Tories are going to essentially commit seppuku over the issue and will bring in TTIP (s good thing as for the most part the left is derangely paranoid about it)
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username2298253
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Chance of corbyn winning is extremely low, assuming he is still alive in 2020 :nutcase:
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Jammy Duel
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#6
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Cameron steps down, replaced by Osborne, with Jezza still leading Labour, which has at best not gained anything in the polls, relatively. UKIP is past its glory days and there is a small rise for the Lib Dems. Labour is just about holding together, but Jezza is out right after the election, or the cracks grow further to a full scale split.

The SNP remain dominant in Scotland, but Conservative support has grown somewhat in the less Tory seats. Taken with boundary changes likely to favour the Tories, Osborne gets a fairly comfortable majority and Labour suffers its worst defeat since 1983, at least.

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Rakas21
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#7
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Right now i see no external threat to the Tory party which suggests that a worst case scenario is that they lose their majority but still win.

The only 2 threats really come from the Tories themselves..

1) How civil the European referendum is. They could end up in a bloody battle where they all hate each other afterward, that would not be good. Equally they could keep it together.

2) The next leader. Boris does better than Cameron a little (boundary reforms help him) and we get a majority of 50. Osbourne beats Corbyn comfortably but loses ground and we fight for a coalition or minority government. May leads us to defeat with Labour leading a coalition as largest party.

Without recession i'm fairly confident, especially since most Tories seem openly prepared to compromise for power rather than hold the reckless attitude of Labour voters (better to be a pure opposition. Labour could cull Corbyn for a Blairite but i'm honestly not sure the current membership has it in them.
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Jammy Duel
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So we have 4 unduly optimistic people, and 3 absolute lunatics thus far...
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username878267
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#9
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Still very early days.
Cameron to Osborne will be a net loss to the tories. Cameron is a brilliant PR man, he has a soft image and doesn't give off a 'nasty tory' vibe. Osborne doesn't have the same personal appeal as Cameron, he is generally seen as more toxic.
A lot depends on the upcoming European issue for the tories, it could highlight major divisions in the party and destabilize the party. With Cameron stepping down, he may well enter a bit of a lame duck period where the angry Eurosceptic backbenches see it as their opportunity to give him a bloody nose. What they can nearly always count on though, is having the press on their side.

I think UKIP will have petered out somewhat, the Greens largely swallowed up by Labour, and the Lib Dems almost becoming non-existent. Can't see anything currently knocking the SNP momentum.

Labour could well finding itself fighting a more divided tory party, with a less popular leader, without too much competition from other parties in 2020.

Then it all comes down to how well Corbyn will do. Right now I can't see him winning the general election. But as i've always said, May elections will be key. If Labour win the London mayoral election, that will be a big scalp and bring some confidence back into the party. If they can do well in the council elections, then that too.

Corbyn is never going to get a fair ride from the press, who will magnify and scrutinize his every footstep, while letting the tories off the hook. However, if he can enter a period where he can get the PLP on side ish, and finally start to get through his economic message, rather than foreign policy he could achieve some success, especially if the tory party is disunited and cuts start to bite more toryish voters.


I see that as optimistic and unlikely as of now although again, i'll wait until May.
If Labour get hammered in May, Corbyn will be out and then Jarvis or Umunna will take over. Either of those would have a good chance of getting Labour closer to the tories at the next election.
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Jammy Duel
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#10
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(Original post by Bornblue)
Still very early days.
Cameron to Osborne will be a net loss to the tories. Cameron is a brilliant PR man, he has a soft image and doesn't give off a 'nasty tory' vibe. Osborne doesn't have the same personal appeal as Cameron, he is generally seen as more toxic.
A lot depends on the upcoming European issue for the tories, it could highlight major divisions in the party and destabilize the party. With Cameron stepping down, he may well enter a bit of a lame duck period where the angry Eurosceptic backbenches see it as their opportunity to give him a bloody nose. What they can nearly always count on though, is having the press on their side.

I think UKIP will have petered out somewhat, the Greens largely swallowed up by Labour, and the Lib Dems almost becoming non-existent. Can't see anything currently knocking the SNP momentum.

Labour could well finding itself fighting a more divided tory party, with a less popular leader, without too much competition from other parties in 2020.

Then it all comes down to how well Corbyn will do. Right now I can't see him winning the general election. But as i've always said, May elections will be key. If Labour win the London mayoral election, that will be a big scalp and bring some confidence back into the party. If they can do well in the council elections, then that too.

Corbyn is never going to get a fair ride from the press, who will magnify and scrutinize his every footstep, while letting the tories off the hook. However, if he can enter a period where he can get the PLP on side ish, and finally start to get through his economic message, rather than foreign policy he could achieve some success, especially if the tory party is disunited and cuts start to bite more toryish voters.


I see that as optimistic and unlikely as of now although again, i'll wait until May.
If Labour get hammered in May, Corbyn will be out and then Jarvis or Umunna will take over. Either of those would have a good chance of getting Labour closer to the tories at the next election.
Which planet are you living on? The cuts this parliament may be as 'bad' as during the last, but when put in combination with strong real terms wage growth, something that was not the case during most of the last parliament, it is not received as badly. Then consider that if Corbyn fights the next general on the same platform that he used to become Labour leader he will have his economic message picked apart before the whole country, and if that message changes significantly he will be attacked on the basis of it having changed, he has little chance of winning on that. Then further consider that the power in Labour is now the Corbynistas, there is little chance of him losing power any time soon.

Further, it's worth noting that the SNP will likely still hold the vast majority of seats in Scotland, which allows the same "do you really want the SNP in power" card to be played again, further consider that the boundary changes will likely favour the Tories and it becomes even more of an uphill battle.
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Davij038
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#11
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#11
(Original post by Jammy Duel)
So we have 4 unduly optimistic people, and 3 absolute lunatics thus far...
Which one do you fall into?

I've always considered myself an optimistic lunatic!
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Jammy Duel
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#12
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(Original post by Davij038)
Which one do you fall into?

I've always considered myself an optimistic lunatic!
Neither of those since I doubt corbyn will win the election, nor mad enough to think that UKIP are capable of surging to a win without some massive election rigging conspiracy.

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Davij038
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#13
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The mayor of London is going to be interesting- say what you like about Galloway but he'll make a show out of it. Apparently Goldsmith is his pal...

The euro elections I think (and admittedly hope) that ukip will lose a few seats.

I don't think the lib dems will lose any seats- I dare say they might win a couple of their old constituencies.

Labour and quite possibly the Tories might win a seat from the snp but other than that not much there.


In 2017 David Miliband will return to parliament, help win the EU referendum, be installed in a coup after too many Corbyn gaffes and smash the Tories: labour is born again as Neo Labour
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Jammy Duel
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(Original post by Davij038)
The mayor of London is going to be interesting- say what you like about Galloway but he'll make a show out of it. Apparently Goldsmith is his pal...

The euro elections I think (and admittedly hope) that ukip will lose a few seats.

I don't think the lib dems will lose any seats- I dare say they might win a couple of their old constituencies.

Labour and quite possibly the Tories might win a seat from the snp but other than that not much there.


In 2017 David Miliband will return to parliament, help win the EU referendum, be installed in a coup after too many Corbyn gaffes and smash the Tories: labour is born again as Neo Labour
Wait, the EU referendum will be re run a year or two after the first one?
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username878267
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(Original post by Jammy Duel)
Which planet are you living on? The cuts this parliament may be as 'bad' as during the last, but when put in combination with strong real terms wage growth, something that was not the case during most of the last parliament, it is not received as badly. Then consider that if Corbyn fights the next general on the same platform that he used to become Labour leader he will have his economic message picked apart before the whole country, and if that message changes significantly he will be attacked on the basis of it having changed, he has little chance of winning on that. Then further consider that the power in Labour is now the Corbynistas, there is little chance of him losing power any time soon.

Further, it's worth noting that the SNP will likely still hold the vast majority of seats in Scotland, which allows the same "do you really want the SNP in power" card to be played again, further consider that the boundary changes will likely favour the Tories and it becomes even more of an uphill battle.
My last post was thoroughly reasonable, I said I can't see Corbyn winning and I also said I couldn't see the SNP losing momentum any time soon. You seem to have come in guns blazing to shoot me down without actually having read what I put.


I also never predicted what will happen, just predicted a best case scenario which was hardly remarkable.


I know you like to use stats manipulation to try and make out that the economy is growing and doing fantastically well, but real life may present a different picture. Economic growth tends to mean those at the top get wealthier, it doesn't say anything about your average individual. And we've suffered the biggest decline in real term wages in many, many years.

That said, the tories will still likely win in 2020.
I do think a Jarvis - Umunna partnership would certainly give Osborne a very good run for his money. Jarvis would almost certainly win a popularity battle between the two and Umunna would potentially take a lot of sot tories.

As for the Corbynistas, they can't do anything if Corbyn doesn't get on the ballot if a leadership election is called. If one is, he won't, the MPs will play it safe this time.
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username878267
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(Original post by Davij038)
The mayor of London is going to be interesting- say what you like about Galloway but he'll make a show out of it. Apparently Goldsmith is his pal...

The euro elections I think (and admittedly hope) that ukip will lose a few seats.

I don't think the lib dems will lose any seats- I dare say they might win a couple of their old constituencies.

Labour and quite possibly the Tories might win a seat from the snp but other than that not much there.


In 2017 David Miliband will return to parliament, help win the EU referendum, be installed in a coup after too many Corbyn gaffes and smash the Tories: labour is born again as Neo Labour
Think David Miliband's day has been and gone. Will more likely be Jarvis/Umunna.
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Tempest II
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#17
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(Original post by Bornblue)
Think David Miliband's day has been and gone. Will more likely be Jarvis/Umunna.
Jarvis doesn't seem too bad but I've seen Umunna several occasions on Question Time and he seems awful.
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username878267
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(Original post by Tempest II)
Jarvis doesn't seem too bad but I've seen Umunna several occasions on Question Time and he seems awful.
Not many come across well on QT tbf.

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moggis
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#19
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I think it's a bit silly to think about this when the result of the EU referendum will surely play a significant part in people's voting intentions.Wont it?

Not just the result but the details of Cameron's deal should we stay in.


Needless to say there will be a hell of a lot of very very angry voters out there should we vote to stay in-especially if it's a close result and a weak deal- and any thoughts that UKIP are on the way down might prove to be premature.
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Jammy Duel
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#20
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(Original post by Bornblue)
My last post was thoroughly reasonable, I said I can't see Corbyn winning and I also said I couldn't see the SNP losing momentum any time soon. You seem to have come in guns blazing to shoot me down without actually having read what I put.


I also never predicted what will happen, just predicted a best case scenario which was hardly remarkable.


I know you like to use stats manipulation to try and make out that the economy is growing and doing fantastically well, but real life may present a different picture. Economic growth tends to mean those at the top get wealthier, it doesn't say anything about your average individual. And we've suffered the biggest decline in real term wages in many, many years.

That said, the tories will still likely win in 2020.
I do think a Jarvis - Umunna partnership would certainly give Osborne a very good run for his money. Jarvis would almost certainly win a popularity battle between the two and Umunna would potentially take a lot of sot tories.

As for the Corbynistas, they can't do anything if Corbyn doesn't get on the ballot if a leadership election is called. If one is, he won't, the MPs will play it safe this time.
My understanding is that Corbyn will be on the ballot paper even if no MP backs him given that he is still leader until he is beaten or resigns, he doesn't need and MPs so support him, so he is safe regardless.

And despite real terms wage contraction in recent history, that is over with fairly strong growth forecasted for the rest of the parliament, 2-3% every year, which should bring things into the real growth vs 2007 before the end of the parliament.

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