Matched Betting

I saw FTO now has that Betclic offer (similar to the 888 one), think I may give it ago once Ive got some cash

Out of curiosity (Im being stupid today) are you better off with your bet losing on those kind of offers, thus to get the freebet? Can't get my head around it this morning

You back at high odds because that gets you the greatest percentage return of the bonus, it doesnt matter whether it wins or loses, you get the same amount of profit.

You do your initial bet the same way you would treat a stake not returned bonus. So you look for high odds and lay less than you normally would.

So for the guy aboves example, his initial qualifying bet would be £20 at odds of 10, and he'd lay £17.91

If the team at odds of 10 wins he gets ( £20 x 9 ) - (£17.91 x 9.1 ) = £17.02 profit

He doesnt get a free bet because his first has won, but as he has layed less than normal its all profit.

If the team at 10 loses he loses £2.99, but now has a £20 SNR free bet which he can get at least £16 out of.

Not sure what you mean by capping your losses at 50% and falling into traps?

I saw FTO now has that Betclic offer (similar to the 888 one), think I may give it ago once Ive got some cash

Out of curiosity (Im being stupid today) are you better off with your bet losing on those kind of offers, thus to get the freebet? Can't get my head around it this morning

I agree. Its the way I've done these offers and I've always come out with at least £15 profit from them.
With SNR bets you need higher odds because if its a freebet you only get the profit, not the freebet stake returned so betting at low odds gets you hardly any profit.

Treating both bets as SNR means you need higher odds (as though you're betting a freebet) in order to get the best returns.

There are no traps to fall into If you use your common sense and get good odds, have enough liability then you'll get a good return.

By treating the bet as SNR you are laying less than normal. So your liability will be lower. So if you win in the bookie you get profit because the liability is lower yet if you win in betfair you dont win as much but you get a freebet or your bet refunded in the bookie which cancells that out, resulting in profit still.

So yeah as fridgeboy says It doesn't matter whether your bet wins or loses on high odds. Treating it as a SNR bet gets you profit either way. If any of you have the spreadsheet from MSE then play around with it and it'll help you understand how it works.

I have done bets this way, the initial one won in betfair, I then bet my freebet on the bookie in the same manner and walked away with £15 profit. This was on 6 odds or so. I think it was 6 - 6.2.

This is a method people have been using to do these types of bets for a very long time.

So sorry Carl but you're wrong this time

I agree. Its the way I've done these offers and I've always come out with at least £15 profit from them.
With SNR bets you need higher odds because if its a freebet you only get the profit, not the freebet stake returned so betting at low odds gets you hardly any profit.

Treating both bets as SNR means you need higher odds (as though you're betting a freebet) in order to get the best returns.

There are no traps to fall into If you use your common sense and get good odds, have enough liability then you'll get a good return.

By treating the bet as SNR you are laying less than normal. So your liability will be lower. So if you win in the bookie you get profit because the liability is lower yet if you win in betfair you dont win as much but you get a freebet or your bet refunded in the bookie which cancells that out, resulting in profit still.

So yeah as fridgeboy says It doesn't matter whether your bet wins or loses on high odds. Treating it as a SNR bet gets you profit either way. If any of you have the spreadsheet from MSE then play around with it and it'll help you understand how it works.

I have done bets this way, the initial one won in betfair, I then bet my freebet on the bookie in the same manner and walked away with £15 profit. This was on 6 odds or so. I think it was 6 - 6.2.

This is a method people have been using to do these types of bets for a very long time.

So sorry Carl but you're wrong this time

thanks wolvarium, but i'm not sure what you mean? would you be able to explain it?

you see my interpretation of this all is this... and sorry to everyone looking at this thinking that i'm going to get all technical!

on a normal 100% back and lay bet, you make a loss because the lay odds are higher than the back odds which would be the 'variance'. therefore the higher the variance, the more you lose.

if you use very high odds and lay 100%, there's a good chance that your back bet would lose. This will then entitle you to the free bet and the size of your loss from this free bet will then be again be dependent on the variance between the back and lay odds.

so if you lay say a 75% of a bet, if the back bet wins, you actually make a profit, whereas it loses (the lay bet wins), you make a loss...

so surely if you ensure that the variance between the odds you place is small enough to be equal or less than the portion of the back bet you did not lay when applied to the free bet amount - so for example, if you lay 75% on the first bet and its a £2- free bet, you ensure your lay loss is £5 or less), you can then put a limit (as carl was saying, 'cap') the lay loss and ensure a return on the value of the offer... to make the lay loss as small as poss, you actually need very low odds with the smallest possible variance..

so one way you risk making a loss and the other you make a guaranteed profit..

thanks wolvarium, but i'm not sure what you mean? would you be able to explain it?

you see my interpretation of this all is this... and sorry to everyone looking at this thinking that i'm going to get all technical!

on a normal 100% back and lay bet, you make a loss because the lay odds are higher than the back odds which would be the 'variance'. therefore the higher the variance, the more you lose.

if you use very high odds and lay 100%, there's a good chance that your back bet would lose. This will then entitle you to the free bet and the size of your loss from this free bet will then be again be dependent on the variance between the back and lay odds.

so if you lay say a 75% of a bet, if the back bet wins, you actually make a profit, whereas it loses (the lay bet wins), you make a loss...

so surely if you ensure that the variance between the odds you place is small enough to be equal or less than the portion of the back bet you did not lay when applied to the free bet amount - so for example, if you lay 75% on the first bet and its a £2- free bet, you ensure your lay loss is £5 or less), you can then put a limit (as carl was saying, 'cap') the lay loss and ensure a return on the value of the offer... to make the lay loss as small as poss, you actually need very low odds with the smallest possible variance..

so one way you risk making a loss and the other you make a guaranteed profit..

I don't see how you can make a loss by treating both as SNR with high odds.

The outcomes are either ... win first back bet, lose but win with free bet, lose and lose with free bet.



Outcome 1 - If my back at high odds wins then I'm £17.01 up (£180 less £162.99). I don't get or need the free bet.

Outcome 2 - If my first back bet loses then I lost £20 but have £17.91 in betfair - a £2.99 loss. Now I bet my free bet and win and I've got £17.01 profit less £2.99 I lose on the first bet ... £14 overall profit.

Outcome 3 - If my first bet loses then I lose £20 but have £17.91 in betfair. Now I bet my free bet and say I lose it I've got another £17.91 in betfair. Overall I've lost £20 at the bookie and have 2 x £17.91 = £35.82 in betfair so I have nearly £16 profit.

How is it possible to lose this way? There's no other outcomes.

All the capping and what not sounds way too confusing when this seems to work fine?

With 888sport it doesn't actually say whether it's SR or SNR? http://promo.888.com/888sport/tcs/noLoseBet_TC.htm

Anyone know which one it is?

Generally if they don't state that they're SNR then they are SR. They have to state that the stake is not returned with the winnings in their terms or they cannot fail to return it.
So its SR (but you might want to confirm it 100%)

The key term really is:

Woah, this is getting way too technical!

And as you point out, the majority of us will not understand the mathematics or the intricacies behind matched betting! Let's try and keep it simple so much that it doesn't put people off as matched betting is a great way for us students to make some money at the end of the day.

Apologies for becoming technical and I must stress that my site is simple and does not involve any of these mathematics as it is all automated.

However in reply to @Wolvarium,

Treating the 1st bet as SNR when it is not, is indeed under-laying, which is exactly what my previous suggestion was referring to – hence one should place a proportion of the lay only, but he’s not capping his losses or pretending it’s important.

The example given is with high odds but a tiny variance, or 'spread'.

Now try doing this with odds of 8/9 instead of 8/8.1. As I'm sure you will find, if the spread is too high, it’ll break the computation as you lose more than you can make profit on the free bet. Alternatively, try the hypothetical scenario of an 8/10.

So £20 at 8 = £140 profit, less £180 you have to pay on lay. Your down £40 and great, even if you make 100% profit on your freebet, still down £20 – even excluding Betfair's commission.

Now at 8/9 you get £70 back and have to pay out £80. That’s 50% of your offer profit gone right there.

Therefore it is vital to look at the variance (or 'spread') and minimise it or you could be out of pocket – if people aren't told then they’re not aware.

Gave up trying the BetClic one - wouldn't take my card details and then they sent me an email saying that they had problems earlier on in the day and then suggested that I deposited via Moneybookers!

I think I'll try again later this week, although I'm not too keen on the idea of doing it via Moneybookers...

Gave up trying the BetClic one - wouldn't take my card details and then they sent me an email saying that they had problems earlier on in the day and then suggested that I deposited via Moneybookers!

I think I'll try again later this week, although I'm not too keen on the idea of doing it via Moneybookers...

Hey!

Sounds wierd, Maybe they'll get the card option working again at some point?
Isn't moneybookers the one who charges you commission to cash out - if so watch out for that if you do use it.

Finally got my loan - although after paying the bills Im back to being overdrawn again...tis life. Was going to go down the local pub as thier hiring but Ive come down ill yet again, 3rd time in about 6 weeks so thinking of giving it a miss for now, hopefully they'll still be looking when Im better.....

Also you may have noticed Im now blue instead of red good times
Was just thinking better be careful saying that cos some sod is gunna come neg me now

Oh no! I hope you're okay - don't you just hate the lurgy! My other half has it so she's in quarantine at the moment

Yeah, that's the one - which is why I wasn't so keen on using it! It charges like £1.50 to withdraw my own money! It's like those ATMs that charge you silly amounts of commission to withdraw money - which I can understand, but we just choose avoid it!

And yep - got my loan today too