B923 - United Ireland/Northern Ireland Abolition Bill 2016 watch

Jammy Duel · 17-01-2016 13:15

(Original post by DMcGovern)
Sinn Féin is currently the largest party in Ireland (whole island) - because they are a left-wing nationalist party.
Go figure.

There will be no funds needed. Read the bill properly. That bit was in bold as an NB.

I would say that just because we are modelling it without an actual referendum, that does not mean we shouldn't pretend it didn't happen and we should act as if we each represent the votes of about 30,000 people and the associated cost, I must say I am look I forward to the massive bonus.

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Aph · 17-01-2016 13:34

(Original post by a noble chance)
Oh, the irony...

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-34725746

There are several differences with Scotland.

The most important is that the SNP had an overwhelming mandate to demand a referendum from Westminster, having won almost every Scottish seat on a platform of Scottish independence. Westminster did not have a choice.

The second is that it had not had a referendum on this issue within the lifetimes of most of its popultaion in which all but 1.1% of voters voted to remain part of the Union.

The third is that Scotland cared and cares a great deal more about this issue than Northern Ireland did and does. The turnout in the Irish general election in 1973 was 76.6%, and 72.8% in the UK general election the following year. Turnout in the 1973 Northern Ireland sovereignty referendum was 58.6% and I am sure it would be below 50% if held today. In the Scottish independence referendum of 2014 it was 84.6%.

The fourth is that there was and is a much smaller gap between support for unionism and independence in Scotland than in Northern Ireland. The previous referendum and every poll ever taken on the issue is unwavering evidence that Northern Ireland's answer to this question is a foregone conclusion. In Scotland it was never a foregone conclusion. Unionists were usually, but not always, leading the polls, with a margin of difference of between 1%-28%, and usually in the range of 10-20% (Wikipedia). This gap closed as the referendum drew nearer but it was smaller to begin with. In Northern Ireland the margin of difference was 98% in the 1973 referendum, and according to the BBC and other organisations it is 70-90% today, depending on what timetable is put to them. You cannot seriously anticipate that this gap will close within weeks to such an extent as to throw the result into doubt.

There is no comparison and this referendum cannot be justified.

Firstly 69/129 seats isn't almost every seat.

Second no one under the age of 62 will have voted in the NI referendum. If we look at the 2011 census we see that there are 263,700 people over 65 which would suggest that only 15% of people in NI now actually voted in the referendum, ignoring migration and other factors. That means that most of the people alive in NI will have voted to be part of the U.K.

Why are we talking about GE's?

And that suggests that support is growing for Irish republicanism. You also have to remember in the link attached about 20% weren't sure so there is enough people to be swung to see an out vote.

GaelicBolshevik · 17-01-2016 14:04

(Original post by Snufkin)
What do you mean citizenship is not what you're asking. You asked if I was Irish. Having Irish citizenship means you are Irish. The SNP want independence just as much as Sinn Féin.

Your family history does not trump the sovereign will of the Northern Irish people. They don't want to leave Britain, so there is no need for a referendum. What "grave wrongs" did the British do to the Irish?

Pretty much anyone, especially Americans with an Irish granny can have citizenship, so it was clearly not what I was asking. Irish as in born and raised in Ireland.

You are clearly not Irish or have any knowledge of Ireland if you don't know any wrongs committed by the British on the Irish.
There is no point arguing with you.

(Original post by a noble chance)
The only reason you are using the votes for parties as evidence of Republican feeling in NI is that it is a more favourable picture to you than the answer given by the people of NI when asked the question alone

13% want it in the short to medium term
30% want it in their lifetimes

It is therefore reasonable to forecast that between 87-70% of voters in such a referendum would vote to stay in the Union, depending on when it was given and what the handover timetable was. It is not practical to spend tens of millions of pounds to reach what is already a foregone conclusion.

It's very well known by Irish people that polls conducted in Northern Ireland are notoriously unreliable, and the most recent one at times stretched credulity to its limits - the figures for national identity for the city of Belfast were highly suspect, with a city populated by a greater number of nationalists than unionists apparently registering a 56% British and 29% Irish profile.

(Original post by Ser Alex Toyne)
Hey, I live there.

So do I, but we have to admit it's been nothing but a waste of time for the Brits. The loyalists are making them hate us.

(Original post by hazzer1998)
As already said the northern Irish people want to remain in the union . The union want them to remain in the union. It a waste of money

How is it a waste of money?

cranbrook_aspie · 17-01-2016 14:25

(Original post by Snufkin)
What do you mean citizenship is not what you're asking. You asked if I was Irish. Having Irish citizenship means you are Irish. The SNP want independence just as much as Sinn Féin.

Your family history does not trump the sovereign will of the Northern Irish people. They don't want to leave Britain, so there is no need for a referendum. What "grave wrongs" did the British do to the Irish?

Ever heard of the Great Famine, during which the British rulers of Ireland made it export enough grain to feed the whole population? Or of the Irish language, which was banned in schools until 1871, contributing to its loss of majority language status? Or of transportation, the process by which Irish criminals were forcibly permanently expelled from their homeland and sent 12000 miles away for the pettiest of offences?

a noble chance · 17-01-2016 14:40

(Original post by DMcGovern)
It's very well known by Irish people that polls conducted in Northern Ireland are notoriously unreliable, and the most recent one at times stretched credulity to its limits - the figures for national identity for the city of Belfast were highly suspect, with a city populated by a greater number of nationalists than unionists apparently registering a 56% British and 29% Irish profile.

You have not produced any evidence that the results of these polls are unreliable in any way, so I will continue to view them as reliable. Hearsay is not evidence.

(Original post by Aph)
Firstly 69/129 seats isn't almost every seat.

I was obviously referring to their seats in the House of Commons, which comprise 54/59 seats. Their performance in the Scottish Parliament elections was equally impressive when it is remembered that it uses PR.

Second no one under the age of 62 will have voted in the NI referendum. If we look at the 2011 census we see that there are 263,700 people over 65 which would suggest that only 15% of people in NI now actually voted in the referendum, ignoring migration and other factors. That means that most of the people alive in NI will have voted to be part of the U.K.

This is irrelevant. Polls unanimously indicate that the result will be same. It does also matter that the last time a referendum was held just a few decades ago the result was almost 100% in favour of remaining in the Union. That is in itself a strong mandate to continue the status quo today.

Why are we talking about GE's?

To demonstrate that the turnout in the last referendum held on this issue was relatively tiny, which itself demonstrates that the issue is not a priority to the people in NI and therefore not something which lots of money and parliamentary time should be spent on, even ignoring the fact that the result is a foregone conclusion.

And that suggests that support is growing for Irish republicanism.

An increase which is totally insufficient to cast the result of such a referendum into any doubt.

You also have to remember in the link attached about 20% weren't sure so there is enough people to be swung to see an out vote.

Don't knows make up 16.5%, and this is obviously not enough to overturn the massive majority who want to remain part of the UK, especially when you factor in that a large portion of this percentage would very probably come down on the unionist side.

United1892 · 17-01-2016 14:45

(Original post by a noble chance)
Oh, the irony...

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-34725746

There are several differences with Scotland.

The most important is that the SNP had an overwhelming mandate to demand a referendum from Westminster, having won almost every Scottish seat on a platform of Scottish independence. Westminster did not have a choice.

The second is that it had not had a referendum on this issue within the lifetimes of most of its popultaion in which all but 1.1% of voters voted to remain part of the Union.

The third is that Scotland cared and cares a great deal more about this issue than Northern Ireland did and does. The turnout in the Irish general election in 1973 was 76.6%, and 72.8% in the UK general election the following year. Turnout in the 1973 Northern Ireland sovereignty referendum was 58.6% and I am sure it would be below 50% if held today. In the Scottish independence referendum of 2014 it was 84.6%.

The fourth is that there was and is a much smaller gap between support for unionism and independence in Scotland than in Northern Ireland. The previous referendum and every poll ever taken on the issue is unwavering evidence that Northern Ireland's answer to this question is a foregone conclusion. In Scotland it was never a foregone conclusion. Unionists were usually, but not always, leading the polls, with a margin of difference of between 1%-28%, and usually in the range of 10-20% (Wikipedia). This gap closed as the referendum drew nearer but it was smaller to begin with. In Northern Ireland the margin of difference was 98% in the 1973 referendum, and according to the BBC and other organisations it is 70-90% today, depending on what timetable is put to them. You cannot seriously anticipate that this gap will close within weeks to such an extent as to throw the result into doubt.

There is no comparison and this referendum cannot be justified.

The argument of people not caring ignores the fact that the republicans generally boycotted the referendum where there was a turnout of 58.6%.

**Airmed** · 17-01-2016 14:48

Is there even any need for me to comment? Everyone knows how I'll vote. I'm off to check the Irish Constitution though.

GaelicBolshevik · 17-01-2016 14:50

(Original post by a noble chance)
You have not produced any evidence that the results of these polls are unreliable in any way, so I will continue to view them as reliable. Hearsay is not evidence.

I just produced evidence and you ignored it, so there's no point arguing.
Moreover you are not an MP or Irish/Northern Irish citizen so your input is not necessary.

a noble chance · 17-01-2016 14:55

(Original post by DMcGovern)
I just produced evidence and you ignored it, so there's no point arguing.

You didn't provide any to me. Where is it?

Moreover you are not an MP or Irish/Northern Irish citizen so your input is not necessary.

Sounds like you're losing the argument. Debates here are not restricted to MPs, nor are debates on a potential Northern Irish sovereignty referendum which would have to be ratified by Westminster and would affect the whole union restricted to Irish/Northern Irish citizens. This is putting briefly aside that you don't know what my citizenship status is.

Andy98 · 17-01-2016 14:56

(Original post by Airmed)
Is there even any need for me to comment? Everyone knows how I'll vote. I'm off to check the Irish Constitution though.

Hahaha, was kinda hoping you'd surprise us tbh

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Aph · 17-01-2016 14:59

(Original post by a noble chance)
I was obviously referring to their seats in the House of Commons, which comprise 54/59 seats. Their performance in the Scottish Parliament elections was equally impressive when it is remembered that it uses PR.

You mean 6 right? Because the SNP only had 6 seats in the HoC back in 2013... Unless the government has psychics which told them the result of the 2015 GE

This is irrelevant. Polls unanimously indicate that the result will be same. It does also matter that the last time a referendum was held just a few decades ago the result was almost 100% in favour of remaining in the Union. That is in itself a strong mandate to continue the status quo today.

the BBC poll which asked a thousand people out of the 1.81 million in the whole on Northern Ireland isn't exactly the most accurate. Especially when you consider that Sinn Fein won 25% of the vote when they stand for instantly leaving the union. Which is about double the amount they the BBC poll suggested wanted to go.

To demonstrate that the turnout in the last referendum held on this issue was relatively tiny, which itself demonstrates that the issue is not a priority to the people in NI and therefore not something which lots of money and parliamentary time should be spent on, even ignoring the fact that the result is a foregone conclusion.

you mean the last referendum held about 40 years ago (2 generations ago) in which one side of the debate abstained on out of principle?

An increase which is totally insufficient to cast the result of such a referendum into any doubt.

an increase of about 0.5% a year if the last referendum is accurate and with a large don't know side.

Don't knows make up 16.5%, and this is obviously not enough to overturn the massive majority who want to remain part of the UK, especially when you factor in that a large portion of this percentage would very probably come down on the unionist side.

then the graphic at the top is very confusing. Either way as far as I'm concerned 20% of teh population wanting something is enough to call a referendum.

GaelicBolshevik · 17-01-2016 15:02

(Original post by a noble chance)
There are several differences with Scotland.

The third is that Scotland cared and cares a great deal more about this issue than Northern Ireland

There is no comparison and this referendum cannot be justified.

Really? I should point out that republicans were able to raise paramilitary organisations with significant membership and support and sustain a conflict successfully on and off for the past century.

GaelicBolshevik · 17-01-2016 15:12

(Original post by a noble chance)
You didn't provide any to me. Where is it?

Sounds like you're losing the argument. Debates here are not restricted to MPs, nor are debates on a potential Northern Irish sovereignty referendum which would have to be ratified by Westminster and would affect the whole union restricted to Irish/Northern Irish citizens. This is putting briefly aside that you don't know what my citizenship status is.

I did provide it you just need to look for the numbers.

Again, your input is not needed does not translate to "you shouldn't be involved in the debate", it translates to "your input is not needed as you are not an MP and so you're not making the final decision on the bill.
It's very clear you're not from Ireland since you're taking a clear outsider's viewpoint with no noticeable personal experience on the issue. Also you live in Spain.

a noble chance · 17-01-2016 15:13

(Original post by DMcGovern)
Really? I should point out that republicans were able to raise paramilitary organisations with significant membership and support and sustain a conflict successfully on and off for the past century.

By 'paramilitary organisations' I assume you are referring to 'terrorists'?

They're not doing it any more, and only a small minority of Northern Ireland constitute or ever constituted part of these republicans.

These thugs did not have the support of the vast majority of Northern Ireland. They ruled by fear, manufacturing silence and crushing opposition. That is what terrorists do.

a noble chance · 17-01-2016 15:18

(Original post by DMcGovern)
I did provide it you just need to look for the numbers.

You didn't 'prove' anything. The onus is on you to produce evidence to support your argument. You have totally failed to do this.

Again, your input is not needed does not translate to "you shouldn't be involved in the debate", it translates to "your input is not needed as you are not an MP and so you're not making the final decision on the bill.

You find yourself losing the argument and attempt to sideline your opponent on the entirely irrelevant grounds that he won't be voting on the bill.

It's very clear you're not from Ireland since you're taking a clear outsider's viewpoint with no noticeable personal experience on the issue.

I was unaware that the Irish are incapable of arguing by use of logic and factual evidence rather than hearsay and emotion.

Also you live in Spain.

No, I don't.

Hazzer1998 · 17-01-2016 15:21

(Original post by a noble chance)
You didn't 'prove' anything. The onus is on you to produce evidence to support your argument. You have totally failed to do this.

You find yourself losing the argument and attempt to sideline your opponent on the entirely irrelevant grounds that he won't be voting on the bill.

I was unaware that the Irish are incapable of arguing by use of logic and factual evidence rather than hearsay and emotion.

No, I don't.

Has your party even been formed yet ? Because your not going to have an MPs until April ( unfortunately)

a noble chance · 17-01-2016 15:22

(Original post by hazzer1998)
Has your party even been formed yet ? Because your not going to have an MPs until April ( unfortunately)

Ray is liasing with the CT and expects to make an accouncement soon.

I am aware of this.

SakuraCayla · 17-01-2016 15:23

(Original post by a noble chance)
By 'paramilitary organisations' I assume you are referring to 'terrorists'?

I would point out that under the good friday agreement they are to be called paramilitary organisations, not terrorists or terrorist groups, and this is for all groups involved in the conflict in Northern Ireland, including pro-union paramilitaries.

Hazzer1998 · 17-01-2016 15:24

(Original post by a noble chance)
Ray is liasing with the CT and expects to make an accouncement soon.

I am aware of this.

Great I'm sure it will be a very interesting party to work with

a noble chance · 17-01-2016 15:26

(Original post by Kay_Winters)
I would point out that under the good friday agreement they are to be called paramilitary organisations, not terrorists or terrorist groups, and this is for all groups involved in the conflict in Northern Ireland, including pro-union paramilitaries.

De jure vs de facto

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