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Latest Brexit poll- 53% leave 47% Stay

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Reply 40
Original post by Nathanielle
hm...just one question: What will the UK do after an exit? I am just wondering, because I always read about renegotiations, but there are no plans, how this should happen, how long they will take and how the UK wants to achieve better treaties?
Especially from such a ****-position it puts himself which such a move. I mean, which country would be so stupid to give the UK what it wants, especially knowing, that the UK would be in a hurry, forced to do really fast negotiations, because otherwise the economy will suffer profoundly, simply because a unstable legislation is not how you attract investments or companies? I just don't get it, how people can vote for leave, without preparing a leave? Without implementing a voting system in the UK which gives an actual reflection of the population in the House of Commons? The next general election will be in 2020, so the voters will have absolutely ZERO influence on those new treaties. I just don't get it, how anyone could vote for leave NOW, in case he wants that the leave improves the situation...

Norway and Switzerland have never been part of the EU before and joint or did not join the treaties at the right time, they could adjust the amount of participation slowly and adapted to the need of their countries, from a strong positions. (Again the UK will be in a weak negotiation position, China/Russia/USA are too strong and the UK will be in a hurry, which favours the others countries.)

To put it short: I don't get it. In case one wants a strong, independant UK, why so unprepared? Why with this government? Why do so many people think, that negotiations are easy and fast? (They are not, ... what do they want to pressure the EU with? To exit after the exit? :biggrin:)


If the UK votes for Brexit the EU treaties say we have 2 years to negotiate a new deal so there is no quick desperate deal as you suggest we have time to make a deal, I would suggest free trade only. The UK is actually in a very strong position because we are such a large economy & the EU depend on the UK e.g. we are the EU's largest export market in the world, the trade deficit is £72 billion a year in the EU's favour,we buy twice as many goods from the EU as they buy UK goods (all bigger than China, USA & Russia), many EU nations depend on UK tourism to keep their economy going etc

We have massive clout & negotiating power to get a good deal.
Reply 41
Original post by Ace123
If the UK votes for Brexit the EU treaties say we have 2 years to negotiate a new deal so there is no quick desperate deal as you suggest we have time to make a deal, I would suggest free trade only. The UK is actually in a very strong position because we are such a large economy & the EU depend on the UK e.g. we are the EU's largest export market in the world, the trade deficit is £72 billion a year in the EU's favour,we buy twice as many goods from the EU as they buy UK goods (all bigger than China, USA & Russia), many EU nations depend on UK tourism to keep their economy going etc

We have massive clout & negotiating power to get a good deal.


Getting a trade treaty with the EU is the least of Britain's problems after Brexit. We have to create new treaties with all the other countries we trade with like the US, India and China. Any disruption to these could cost a lot of jobs and money. These countries know Britain will be in a vulnerable position after Brexit and will screw us anyway they can.
Reply 42
Original post by Maker
Getting a trade treaty with the EU is the least of Britain's problems after Brexit. We have to create new treaties with all the other countries we trade with like the US, India and China. Any disruption to these could cost a lot of jobs and money. These countries know Britain will be in a vulnerable position after Brexit and will screw us anyway they can.


we have no trade deals with those countries because the EU has not bothered to negotiate trade deals with any of them & we are forbidden from making our onw, so after Brexit we can finally do deals with China, India & USA
Reply 43
Original post by Ace123
we have no trade deals with those countries because the EU has not bothered to negotiate trade deals with any of them & we are forbidden from making our onw, so after Brexit we can finally do deals with China, India & USA


And they will take the opportunity to screw us over. Thats what I would do if Britain has just lost the ability to export anything to its most important market and needs to sell stuff to survive. I would squeeze Britain until the pips pop out because that is what they would do.
Reply 44
Original post by Maker
And they will take the opportunity to screw us over. Thats what I would do if Britain has just lost the ability to export anything to its most important market and needs to sell stuff to survive. I would squeeze Britain until the pips pop out because that is what they would do.


it is the opposite, because the UK buy so much of EU goods and the trade deficit is gigantic the EU desperately needs a trade deal with the UK
Reply 45
Original post by Ace123
it is the opposite, because the UK buy so much of EU goods and the trade deficit is gigantic the EU desperately needs a trade deal with the UK


I doubt the EU is that desperate. 60% of British exports go to the EU, I very much doubt 60% of EU exports go to Britain. I would suggest is around 10% given the size of Germany, Spain and France. No doubt some EU exporters will be hurt more but others but I wouldn't like to get into a game of chicken in this case.

If EU firms to lose markets in Britain, they can easily increase exports to other EU countries but British firms can't do that until a trade agreement is thrashed out and that can take years. Firms in Britain may not want to wait that long and move their operations to the EU costing Britain jobs and money.
Original post by EricAteYou
I kind of agree. I think many votes will be a proxy for whatever newspaper they pick up. Sadly ( in my view ) I think that may amount to a leave situation.


Telegraph, Times, Guardian, Independent, the Mirror and potentially the sun will most likely back staying.

Daily Mail and Express will back leaving.

So the media's probably weighted in the stay camp.
Original post by Maker
And they will take the opportunity to screw us over. Thats what I would do if Britain has just lost the ability to export anything to its most important market and needs to sell stuff to survive. I would squeeze Britain until the pips pop out because that is what they would do.


They wouldn't need to screw us over we'd be doing it our selves. A huge proportion of our science and research funding out the window... And potentially many highly qualified scientists with it. Goodbye worldwide standing of UK unis hello new dawn of high quality research in mainland Europe.
There is no lead in fact leave is probably behind right now.

Pay no attention until the campaign proper starts.


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Reply 49
Original post by Maker
I doubt the EU is that desperate. 60% of British exports go to the EU, I very much doubt 60% of EU exports go to Britain. I would suggest is around 10% given the size of Germany, Spain and France. No doubt some EU exporters will be hurt more but others but I wouldn't like to get into a game of chicken in this case.

If EU firms to lose markets in Britain, they can easily increase exports to other EU countries but British firms can't do that until a trade agreement is thrashed out and that can take years. Firms in Britain may not want to wait that long and move their operations to the EU costing Britain jobs and money.


actually UK-EU trade has been falling massively & is around 40-45% not 60% and the trade deficit is £72 billion, we are the EU's largest export market in the world, you are just trying to make up excuses to stay when the basic economics is that the EU depend on UK trade
Reply 50
Original post by redferry
They wouldn't need to screw us over we'd be doing it our selves. A huge proportion of our science and research funding out the window... And potentially many highly qualified scientists with it. Goodbye worldwide standing of UK unis hello new dawn of high quality research in mainland Europe.


there is no such thing as EU funding, it is UK taxpayer money & for every £1 we give we only get 49p back so can Brexit and give science & research double the funding it currently gets for the same cost
Original post by redferry
Telegraph, Times, Guardian, Independent, the Mirror and potentially the sun will most likely back staying.

Daily Mail and Express will back leaving.

So the media's probably weighted in the stay camp.


Completely agree.
Original post by Ace123
there is no such thing as EU funding, it is UK taxpayer money & for every £1 we give we only get 49p back so can Brexit and give science & research double the funding it currently gets for the same cost


The UK government would not fund science in the same way. I doubt they'd replace even a 10th of the the 80 billion available to UK institutions in the next 10 years. In science we get far more from the EU money and support wise than we put in.
Reply 53
Original post by redferry
The UK government would not fund science in the same way. I doubt they'd replace even a 10th of the the 80 billion available to UK institutions in the next 10 years. In science we get far more from the EU money and support wise than we put in.


where is the evidence they would not fund science? the government could fund science & then have the same amount of money left to do it again
Original post by Ace123
where is the evidence they would not fund science? the government could fund science & then have the same amount of money left to do it again


The current government had cut science funding year on year
Reply 55
Original post by redferry
The current government had cut science funding year on year


nothing to do with the billions we pay the EU!! we spend £55 million a day on the EU
Original post by Ace123
nothing to do with the billions we pay the EU!! we spend £55 million a day on the EU


Irrelevant. None of that money would be directed into science especially under the current government
Reply 57
3 polls in a row have now given Leave the lead, the poll today by panelbase is 45% Leave, 42% stay

https://twitter.com/LordAshcroft/status/689807137040637952
Reply 58
I am a dual citizen with another EU country which is likely to leave the EU....
Damn!
Original post by Ace123
If the UK votes for Brexit the EU treaties say we have 2 years to negotiate a new deal so there is no quick desperate deal as you suggest we have time to make a deal, I would suggest free trade only. The UK is actually in a very strong position because we are such a large economy & the EU depend on the UK e.g. we are the EU's largest export market in the world, the trade deficit is £72 billion a year in the EU's favour,we buy twice as many goods from the EU as they buy UK goods (all bigger than China, USA & Russia), many EU nations depend on UK tourism to keep their economy going etc

We have massive clout & negotiating power to get a good deal.

- Hm, you probably buy twice as many goods, because you need them? Where will you buy those goods?
- Russian and Chinese are also skiing? Tourists come anyway. Do you really think, that those UK citizens, who want to go skiing fly over to the US instead over to Austria? Which country actually depends on UK tourism? I mean, really? Today, where people go on vacation anywhere, EU or not EU, that is really a very optimistic hope you have.
- Two years ... yeah ... you know, that one has to have a plan at the beginning of the negotiations? You know, that companies can't wait two years? I also can't see the massive negotiations power - as I said - you can no more threaten to exit, after an exit.

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