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Latest Brexit poll- 53% leave 47% Stay Watch

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    I am a dual citizen with another EU country which is likely to leave the EU....
    Damn!
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    (Original post by Ace123)
    If the UK votes for Brexit the EU treaties say we have 2 years to negotiate a new deal so there is no quick desperate deal as you suggest we have time to make a deal, I would suggest free trade only. The UK is actually in a very strong position because we are such a large economy & the EU depend on the UK e.g. we are the EU's largest export market in the world, the trade deficit is £72 billion a year in the EU's favour,we buy twice as many goods from the EU as they buy UK goods (all bigger than China, USA & Russia), many EU nations depend on UK tourism to keep their economy going etc

    We have massive clout & negotiating power to get a good deal.
    - Hm, you probably buy twice as many goods, because you need them? Where will you buy those goods?
    - Russian and Chinese are also skiing? Tourists come anyway. Do you really think, that those UK citizens, who want to go skiing fly over to the US instead over to Austria? Which country actually depends on UK tourism? I mean, really? Today, where people go on vacation anywhere, EU or not EU, that is really a very optimistic hope you have.
    - Two years ... yeah ... you know, that one has to have a plan at the beginning of the negotiations? You know, that companies can't wait two years? I also can't see the massive negotiations power - as I said - you can no more threaten to exit, after an exit.
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    (Original post by Nathanielle)
    - Hm, you probably buy twice as many goods, because you need them? Where will you buy those goods?
    - Russian and Chinese are also skiing? Tourists come anyway. Do you really think, that those UK citizens, who want to go skiing fly over to the US instead over to Austria? Which country actually depends on UK tourism? I mean, really? Today, where people go on vacation anywhere, EU or not EU, that is really a very optimistic hope you have.
    - Two years ... yeah ... you know, that one has to have a plan at the beginning of the negotiations? You know, that companies can't wait two years? I also can't see the massive negotiations power - as I said - you can no more threaten to exit, after an exit.
    we could buy the goods from anywhere, Europe is not the cheapest place to buy goods from anyway and we have been prevented from signing our own trade deals. Spain/Portugal/Greece are highly dependent on UK tourism, we are the biggest visitors to Spain (25% of the total figure)

    As for a plan the government already have a Brexit plan they are just not making it public so they don't encourage people to vote to leave http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/news...-ODonnell.html
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    I still haven't decided what's best for Britain or myself yet. I don't know if I will remain in the country, and the EU does provide easy access to Europe. Self-interest aside maybe leaving the Union is for the best of the country.
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    (Original post by redferry)
    The current government had cut science funding year on year
    The current government has been cutting everything year on year, we won't be able to leave Europe because we won't have any bloody services
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    (Original post by Ace123)
    we could buy the goods from anywhere, Europe is not the cheapest place to buy goods from anyway and we have been prevented from signing our own trade deals. Spain/Portugal/Greece are highly dependent on UK tourism, we are the biggest visitors to Spain (25% of the total figure)

    As for a plan the government already have a Brexit plan they are just not making it public so they don't encourage people to vote to leave http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/news...-ODonnell.html
    You are really an optimist!

    - As I said: They won't stay in Britain during their vacation, just because they have to get a tourist visa.
    - Britain is not forced to import from the EU, never has been, get your facts straight. They (companies) have a reason to import it from the EU. (e.g. because transportations costs may be lower, because the UK - surprise - is surrounded by EU countries.) You won't get those awesome treaties, you are talking from. That is optimism!

    Ah, the government has plans, just not showing them ... extremely convincing ... just look at their success and velocity in the current negotiations.
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    (Original post by Ace123)
    actually UK-EU trade has been falling massively & is around 40-45% not 60% and the trade deficit is £72 billion, we are the EU's largest export market in the world, you are just trying to make up excuses to stay when the basic economics is that the EU depend on UK trade
    40-45% is still a lot of money. No doubt it will hurt EU companies if the UK left but hardly catastrophic. I don't think BMW or Siemens will be losing a lot of sleep if the UK left since they have a lot more business in other parts of the world.
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    (Original post by Kingdoom)
    As someone living in Scotland who supports leave, I am also a supporter of Scottish independence and member of the SNP but I do not believe that if Scotland votes to stay and the rUK votes to leave that the mandate would be strong enough for independence.

    In addition to this, the way to avoid that situation is to persuade my fellow Scots that we are better off leaving the EU which we are.
    No, we aren't. Thankfully most Scots are sensible enough to see that.
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    (Original post by Maker)
    40-45% is still a lot of money. No doubt it will hurt EU companies if the UK left but hardly catastrophic. I don't think BMW or Siemens will be losing a lot of sleep if the UK left since they have a lot more business in other parts of the world.
    actually it would be a disaster if trade stopped or tariffs introuduced, we are their biggest markets, that is the point, the UK not only has a big population we also have some of the best wages & therefore consumers in the world, they sell more of their product then most of the poorer EU nations (e.g. Eastern EU) combined
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    Camerons reform :

    we are now allowed to officially carry on speaking english and eating chips
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    (Original post by Ace123)
    actually it would be a disaster if trade stopped or tariffs introuduced, we are their biggest markets, that is the point, the UK not only has a big population we also have some of the best wages & therefore consumers in the world, they sell more of their product then most of the poorer EU nations (e.g. Eastern EU) combined
    I very much doubt we are the EU's biggest market except for some specialist stuff. Are you really saying we are a bigger market for BMW or Siemens than say USA, France, Germany or China? Fact is, EU companies can weather a Brexit better than the UK because they haven't cut trading links to the rest of the world
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    (Original post by Maker)
    I very much doubt we are the EU's biggest market except for some specialist stuff. Are you really saying we are a bigger market for BMW or Siemens than say USA, France, Germany or China? Fact is, EU companies can weather a Brexit better than the UK because they haven't cut trading links to the rest of the world
    we are the EU's biggest export market in the world, I don't know by each company but overall as the trade figures show the EU export more of their goods to the UK than any other country
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    (Original post by Maker)
    I very much doubt we are the EU's biggest market except for some specialist stuff. Are you really saying we are a bigger market for BMW or Siemens than say USA, France, Germany or China? Fact is, EU companies can weather a Brexit better than the UK because they haven't cut trading links to the rest of the world
    We are the eu's biggest market... It's fact

    We also spend 70 billion more from eu nations than we sell to them it's what's known as a trade deficit


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    (Original post by Maker)
    I very much doubt we are the EU's biggest market except for some specialist stuff. Are you really saying we are a bigger market for BMW or Siemens than say USA, France, Germany or China? Fact is, EU companies can weather a Brexit better than the UK because they haven't cut trading links to the rest of the world
    Germany and the UK are actually each others largest trading partners (it's the US for us in some years) and we are also Poland's second largest export market.

    I do expect we'll get a free trade deal albeit not on the terms we have now and it won't protect every pound of investment and jobs. Whatever the potential long term gains, i expect a couple of hundred job losses in the initial year or two upon exit and less future European investment (BMW may keep producing a model here that they already do but their next new model won't see a factory open here).
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    What most people forget: Norway and Switzerland are both contributing to the EU and accepting the regulations set by the EU, with Norway paying nearly as much as the UK, BUT without having to have any say in how the regulations should be like. Therefore a trade deal without any monetary contribution to the EU and with not having to accept the rules of the EU is VERY UNLIKELY or better said UTOPIC. The Norway and Switzerland model would be a step back for the UK (seen at what "leave" actually wants, with nearly the same amount of "disadvantages" plus the disadvantage of "having nothing to say (which also means in the future)".

    Taking migration into the whole debate is rather funny, as concerning EU, the number of emigration and immigration is nearly the same and all refugees and non-EU migrants are not EU citizens(therefore nothing will change for them) and will come anyway. (Concerning benefits: that could be simply arranged adopting similar systems as other European countries.)
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    (Original post by Nathanielle)
    What most people forget: Norway and Switzerland are both contributing to the EU and accepting the regulations set by the EU, with Norway paying nearly as much as the UK, BUT without having to have any say in how the regulations should be like. Therefore a trade deal without any monetary contribution to the EU and with not having to accept the rules of the EU is VERY UNLIKELY or better said UTOPIC. The Norway and Switzerland model would be a step back for the UK (seen at what "leave" actually wants, with nearly the same amount of "disadvantages" plus the disadvantage of "having nothing to say (which also means in the future)".

    Taking migration into the whole debate is rather funny, as concerning EU, the number of emigration and immigration is nearly the same and all refugees and non-EU migrants are not EU citizens(therefore nothing will change for them) and will come anyway. (Concerning benefits: that could be simply arranged adopting similar systems as other European countries.)
    I'll be honest I don't know much about the Swiss model but I do know about the Norwegian model.

    They have sure a crap deal because their politicians negotiated the deal thinking they were going to be in the eu but the public didn't vote to join.

    There is of course the fact that neither of them are one of the worlds largest economies which we are.


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    (Original post by paul514)
    I'll be honest I don't know much about the Swiss model but I do know about the Norwegian model.

    They have sure a crap deal because their politicians negotiated the deal thinking they were going to be in the eu but the public didn't vote to join.

    There is of course the fact that neither of them are one of the worlds largest economies which we are.


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    The Swiss & Norway models are not great but they are both small countries with small economies & populations they simply don't have the economic or political weight the UK, the UK has 2 years after Brexit to create a deal & we can create our own deal, many countries have made their own unique deals with the EU & they do not include billions in fees or free movement, I would suggest a free trade deal only with nothing else & no political union in anyway
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    (Original post by paul514)
    I'll be honest I don't know much about the Swiss model but I do know about the Norwegian model.

    They have sure a crap deal because their politicians negotiated the deal thinking they were going to be in the eu but the public didn't vote to join.

    There is of course the fact that neither of them are one of the worlds largest economies which we are.


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    I was just pointing at the fact, how many of pro-leavers have "Switzerland" and "Norway" as an argument and think, there are existing models of treaties with the EU, which would fulfill their wishes. The truth is, that there are not. (I think, that it is in the best interest of the UK, that voters vote over real alternatives, and not "now" and the "unknown".)

    Yes, the UK is a large economy, but it will be negotiate with Germany+France+Netherlands+etc. ... in comparison to those together, the UK is not that large. The UK will be negotiating ALONE, against 27 countries. The EU WON'T have any reason, to be lenient.

    In addition: The UK will rather loose political influence globally with that move. The rest of the EU will be - alone due to their proximity to the Near East - supported by the US; as they need a strong EU. Generally influence in International Politics is gained through participation, not isolation. A partner, who does not contribute, is not a valuable partner. Ergo: A UK, who does not pay, but only gets, is not a valuable partner. It can also not claim, that they are important to protect, because they are to far away from conflict (though of course concerning terrorism, not really). That is simply how international politics work. The UK is not unimportant, yes, but it will loose its political influence on the EU, that is a HUGE disadvantage. The UK will be become less interesting for others and as far as I know, that is not exactly the UK, the British want to have. They want a economically and politcally strong country, not a financial enclave, which is largely neutral, when it comes down to politics.
    Currently the UK can influence other states in the UN and it various bodies (which determine a lot of regulations, as the ISO norms, WTO, UNECE, etc. ...) through the UK representations and through the EU representations. After a leave it will only have to rely on his own embassadors and can no more influence decisions that easily, on two ways, as now. The Security council won't help that much, because the Security council does not deal with economics, ... the seat in the Security council won't help to reduce red-tape, etc. The wold is now globally connected, one cannot change that. Companies are already now applying US regulations to be able to sell their goods in the US, hence the big freedom everyone imagines won't come after leaving the EU. The long term effects for the UK's influence on the wold stage can thus be very damaging.
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    (Original post by Ace123)
    The Swiss & Norway models are not great but they are both small countries with small economies & populations they simply don't have the economic or political weight the UK, the UK has 2 years after Brexit to create a deal & we can create our own deal, many countries have made their own unique deals with the EU & they do not include billions in fees or free movement, I would suggest a free trade deal only with nothing else & no political union in anyway
    It took them years to negotiate!. As long as the negotiations will last (which can exceed the two years), the UK will have to deal with uncertainty, while the EU does not. And compared to all 27 EU countries together, the UK isn't that big. In addition after a BREXIT they are less interesting due to decreasing political influence on the world stage. Hence less countries will feel the need to please them.

    And which countries have created their free trade deal only? This will only happen, in case the EU politicians will be stupid, which they aren't. They have no interest in "just" a free trade deal. Companies have no interest to apply for visa/sponsorship/etc. each time a British citizen has to go to the EU. (Or do you prefer that British will have it harder to get into positions in global companies?) Universities have no interest, either.
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    (Original post by Nathanielle)
    It took them years to negotiate!. As long as the negotiations will last (which can exceed the two years), the UK will have to deal with uncertainty, while the EU does not. And compared to all 27 EU countries together, the UK isn't that big. In addition after a BREXIT they are less interesting due to decreasing political influence on the world stage. Hence less countries will feel the need to please them.

    And which countries have created their free trade deal only? This will only happen, in case the EU politicians will be stupid, which they aren't. They have no interest in "just" a free trade deal. Companies have no interest to apply for visa/sponsorship/etc. each time a British citizen has to go to the EU. (Or do you prefer that British will have it harder to get into positions in global companies?) Universities have no interest, either.
    that is total rubbish are you really suggesting EU companies won't hire Brits because they have to get a visa, are you saying no Americans or Chinese or Australian work in Europe because they have to apply for a visa! And the EU will agree to free trade because it is in the EU's interest because the trade deficit is gigantic & we can also start signing our own free trade deals with others nations which we are not allowed to do whilst in the EU
 
 
 
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