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EU Referendum - What will you do if you lose? Watch

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    (Original post by TheDefiniteArticle)
    The trade which would be lost (the leave campaign's arguments for what we replace it with are either pipe dreams, or rely on effectively submitting to EU law anyway) is worth far far more than the difference. There really is no valid economic argument to leave.

    Personally, if we leave I'll be nervous because my career will be ****ed, moreso than the rest of the country (it'll decimate the professional and financial services industries on which the legal profession relies, and law qualifications are tougher to transfer to foreign jurisdictions), but will try to look on the bright side of no TTIP.
    The conservatives are by far the most pro-TTIP, and the party wanting the most to leave the EU. So they are not linked like that, it wouldn't make sense.

    Personally I think staying in the EU is right, although it needs reform.

    TTIP is the daddy problem, and staying in EU means closer connections with Germany, and unlike the British, the German people seem to be intelligent enough to be frightened by it.
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    (Original post by nersha)
    I favour leaving.

    If the UK votes to stay in the EU, I will emigrate to either Australia or Canada. I'm interested in hearing what everyone else will do?
    I'll emigrate too, probably to America, but maybe Australia.
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    (Original post by doctorwhofan98)
    As a big supporter of staying in the EU, I'll be very sad if we leave, but I won't be too surprised - the rise of UKIP in particular, combined with almost all of the media presenting all immigration and refugees as bad, means that I think we are quite likely to end up leaving. I won't do anything in particular if the electorate vote to leave; there would be no chance of us returning, at least not within several decades. I'll just continue to promote and campaign for Labour, more so than before, so in 2020 the Conservatives can finally leave office, and the probably-tight immigration controls that'll apply to everyone if we leave the EU can be relaxed.
    :toofunny: They have been caught trying to find women and children when 90% are men.
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    (Original post by Heinz59)
    If the UK leaves the EU then I will need 50000 Euros to complete the final 2 years of my medical degree as I become a non-EU student in an EU country. I don't have this sort of money and the UK has not given me a dime so far, but will get the benefit of £250,000 worth of training that they have not contributed to in any way. I'm not the only one. There are hundreds of UK students at my Uni alone who will be in the same boat. It doesn't seem right.
    The UK may vote to leave this year but the actual process of leaving the EU will take longer than 2 years, I'm fairly certain you'll be okay.
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    (Original post by nersha)
    I favour leaving.

    If the UK votes to stay in the EU, I will emigrate to either Australia or Canada. I'm interested in hearing what everyone else will do?
    I'll do absolutely nothing in regards to leaving the country.

    If my side loses and it's been a fair referendum (I'm voting out) then I will campaign for the next best thing full federalisation of the eu as a nation state.


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    (Original post by NickLCFC)
    The UK may vote to leave this year but the actual process of leaving the EU will take longer than 2 years, I'm fairly certain you'll be okay.
    Yea doesn't seem that quarter of a million education has done much good when they can't get a fact as basic as this correct


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    (Original post by doctorwhofan98)
    As a big supporter of staying in the EU, I'll be very sad if we leave, but I won't be too surprised - the rise of UKIP in particular, combined with almost all of the media presenting all immigration and refugees as bad, means that I think we are quite likely to end up leaving. I won't do anything in particular if the electorate vote to leave; there would be no chance of us returning, at least not within several decades. I'll just continue to promote and campaign for Labour, more so than before, so in 2020 the Conservatives can finally leave office, and the probably-tight immigration controls that'll apply to everyone if we leave the EU can be relaxed.
    Why on earth would you want to deprive your children and your children's children of independence? You do realise that the UK will only have about 8.5% of the votes in a political union with the EU? When Germany and France swing to the Right and start draconian measures against minorities there will be no tolerant UK to point out the error of their ways. The British voice will be gone forever.

    What will I do after full political union with the EU? Shake my head in pity as the old Frankish/Hapsburg Empire re-emerges to impose the order on the European rabble.

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    (Original post by TheDefiniteArticle)
    The trade which would be lost (the leave campaign's arguments for what we replace it with are either pipe dreams, or rely on effectively submitting to EU law anyway) is worth far far more than the difference. There really is no valid economic argument to leave.

    Personally, if we leave I'll be nervous because my career will be ****ed, moreso than the rest of the country (it'll decimate the professional and financial services industries on which the legal profession relies, and law qualifications are tougher to transfer to foreign jurisdictions), but will try to look on the bright side of no TTIP.
    Where did you get this nonsense about trade being lost?:



    And just look at the scale of the deficit £60 billion a year!

    You do know that many countries have comprehensive bilateral agreements with the EU?
    South Korea: http://trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/doc...doc_148303.pdf
    Canada: http://ec.europa.eu/trade/policy/in-focus/ceta/
    and many others.

    You also know that the total cost of tariffs to the economy, even without a free trade agreement with the EU, would be about £7,4 billion per year, which is less than we pay in EU membership fees!
    http://businessforbritain.org/change-or-go/#CoG
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    (Original post by newpersonage)
    Where did you get this nonsense about trade being lost?:



    And just look at the scale of the deficit £60 billion a year!
    A negative balance of payments doesn't imply that interaction with the EU does not have a significant expansionary force.

    You do know that many countries have comprehensive bilateral agreements with the EU?
    South Korea: http://trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/doc...doc_148303.pdf
    Canada: http://ec.europa.eu/trade/policy/in-focus/ceta/
    and many others.
    Neither of which, AFAIK, extends as far as the four fundamental freedoms (of goods, services, persons and establishment) of the European Union.

    You also know that the total cost of tariffs to the economy, even without a free trade agreement with the EU, would be about £7,4 billion per year, which is less than we pay in EU membership fees!
    http://businessforbritain.org/change-or-go/#CoG
    First, the link is from a partisan website. Second, I'm sure I could find hugely different predictions from other websites. Third, I'm not trawling through a 46-page report to find questionable parts of their methodology; suffice it to say that I'm sure they exist.
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    (Original post by TheDefiniteArticle)
    A negative balance of payments doesn't imply that interaction with the EU does not have a significant expansionary force.


    Look at graph above of actual export growth rather than balance - it is not just balance of trade, it is absolute value of trade. See
    http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/elmr/e...-overtake.html

    Neither of which, AFAIK, extends as far as the four fundamental freedoms (of goods, services, persons and establishment) of the European Union.
    Obviously not. Canada, Singapore, S. Korea etc. dont want to be part of the EU, they value their independence.

    First, the link is from a partisan website. Second, I'm sure I could find hugely different predictions from other websites. Third, I'm not trawling through a 46-page report to find questionable parts of their methodology; suffice it to say that I'm sure they exist.
    EU tariffs are low thanks to decades of WTO negotiations that lower tariffs globally. The average tariff rate is about 3-4%. The UK is helped enormously by the fact that the EU has high tariffs on agricultural produce and the UK does not export much food.


    Total exports to the EU are about £224 bn in 2012 so the £7bn figure is respectable. Even in the worst possible case for the UK, the fact that our exports are manufactures and services means that £20bn in tariffis (ie: 9bn more than the UK membership fee) would be at the highest end of any possible estimate.

    If the UK did not negotiate any more than a mutual recognition agreement (MRA) and paid full WTO tariffs the UK government could easily pay off any EU tariff charges to exporters until a Free Trade Agreement was finalised. A Swiss style membership of EFTA which would bring FTAs globally would be the obvious first step on a Brexit.
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    You're all liars. Whatever the result, you'll all just put up with it and stay put. The EU makes such little difference to any given individual's life. If we do head for Brexit, don't be shocked when things are ~exactly the same~ as they are now, maybe being a bit poorer.
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    (Original post by nersha)
    I favour leaving.

    If the UK votes to stay in the EU, I will emigrate to either Australia or Canada. I'm interested in hearing what everyone else will do?
    If I were you I would go now. A vote out of the EU is a leap into the unknown. No one knows what will happen despite what they might tell us. If you have that opportunity, why wait and see. Go now and cut your losses.
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    (Original post by newpersonage)
    Where did you get this nonsense about trade being lost?:



    And just look at the scale of the deficit £60 billion a year!

    You do know that many countries have comprehensive bilateral agreements with the EU?
    South Korea: http://trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/doc...doc_148303.pdf
    Canada: http://ec.europa.eu/trade/policy/in-focus/ceta/
    and many others.

    You also know that the total cost of tariffs to the economy, even without a free trade agreement with the EU, would be about £7,4 billion per year, which is less than we pay in EU membership fees!
    http://businessforbritain.org/change-or-go/#CoG
    Actually the cost would be zero not 7.4 billion as the same fees would be placed on the goods they sell to us and as we buy more from them than the other way round as you pointed out it would make us money.


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    (Original post by Bulbasaur)
    You're all liars. Whatever the result, you'll all just put up with it and stay put. The EU makes such little difference to any given individual's life. If we do head for Brexit, don't be shocked when things are ~exactly the same~ as they are now, maybe being a bit poorer.
    We will probably be richer - all the W. European states that are outside the EU are generally richer than those within it.

    The big difference lies in the future:

    Angela Merkel, the German Chancellor said:

    "we need a political union first and foremost" (BBC News).

    Francois Hollande, the French president said:

    "Political union is the step that follows fiscal union, banking union, and social union. It will provide a democratic framework for successful integration." (Le Monde)

    President Sergio Mattarella of Italy's inaugural speech Feb 2015:

    "The EU is now once again a perspective of hope andtrue political union to be relaunched without delay."

    Mariano Rajoy Brey, Spanish prime minister:

    "We need to fix these objectives - fiscal union, banking union, political union...And we must set a time scale. We are giving a message that we really want greater European integration. We can't say something is this first, then something else, without saying where we're going," Rajoy said at a news conference with Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti. (Reuters report).

    What the European Commission says:

    José Manuel Durão Barroso, President of the European Commission said:

    "This is why the Economic and Monetary Union raises the question of a political union and the European democracy that must underpin it."...

    .."A deep and genuine economic and monetary union, a political union, with a coherent foreign and defence policy, means ultimately that the present European Union must evolve." (State of the Union 2012 Address to the European Parliament on 12 September 2012).

    The EU's Blueprint for a deep and genuine economic and monetary union (and political union) states that:

    "This Blueprint for a Deep and Genuine EMU describes the necessary
    elements and the steps towards a full banking, economic, fiscal and political union."

    What the European Central Bank says:

    1999 paper by the European Central Bank: Europe: Common Money - Political Union? In this paper it says that:

    "The monetary order established by the Maastricht Treaty with the detailed statute of the European System of Central Banks by itself represents an important building block for the development of a European statehood."

    The importance of the connection between monetary union and the establishment of a single state was well understood at the new European Central Bank in 1999:

    "So what does the future hold? Anyone who believes in the role of a single currency as a pace-setter in achieving political unity (Europe will be created by means of a single currency or not at all (Jacques Rueff 1950)) will regard the decisive step as has having already been taken. This does not provide an answer as to how the "rest" of the journey should be approached. "

    How does the European Central Bank see the current Euro crisis evolving? Here is an extract from an ECB approved presentation on the subject, Short Term Crisis Management and Long Term Vision, describing the 4 steps to a solution:
    1. The first is a financial union, with a single framework for supervising and resolving banks and for insuring customer deposits. This would build on the single supervisory mechanism now under development and ideally lead to a European version of the FDIC, financed by contributions from the private sector.
    2. The second building block is a fiscal union, with powers at the euro area level to prevent unsustainable fiscal policies and to limit national debt issuance. With these powers in place, a path towards common debt issuance would also be possible, but only at the end of the process.
    3. The third building block is an economic union, which would help euro area members to remain fit and to adjust flexibly within monetary union. This could entail, for example, moving from soft coordination of structural reforms in Member States to an enforceable framework at the euro area level.
    4. And the fourth building block is a political union, which aims at strengthening democratic participation. This final building block is equally important, as the other measures cannot be effective unless they are legitimate. This requires innovative thinking as regards the involvement of the European Parliament and national parliaments in decision-making on euro area issues.
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    (Original post by NickLCFC)
    The UK may vote to leave this year but the actual process of leaving the EU will take longer than 2 years, I'm fairly certain you'll be okay.
    Thanks for the information, but it won't help anyone in Y1&2 nor help me apply for Foundation Training where I am now. I've got another 4 1/2 years to do.

    I also expect that applications for UK places by EU students will drop to zero if a Brexit vote happens, well before 2
    years is up.

    In the uncertainty all I can do is hope for the best.


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    (Original post by Heinz59)
    Thanks for the information, but it won't help anyone in Y1&2 nor help me apply for Foundation Training where I am now. I've got another 4 1/2 years to do.

    I also expect that applications for UK places by EU students will drop to zero if a Brexit vote happens, well before 2
    years is up.

    In the uncertainty all I can do is hope for the best.
    The UK Education Industry is one of the major beneficiaries of the EU and migration. This is why the selfish Education Industry always fanatically supports the EU and migration, no matter what the consequences might be for the country as a whole, or for their students. (Those who run universities are only interested in their own career prospects and status).

    Your situation is between yourself, the university and the EU but I would expect that there will be transitional arrangements. BTW the Erasmus program does not depend on EU membership.
 
 
 
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