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Corbyn should prepare for snap election. Watch

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    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/...neral-election

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    Jeremy Corbyn has been told to put Labour on an election footing due to concerns a snap general election could be called later this year.

    Shadow defence minister Toby Perkins said Labour had to be prepared for David Cameron to quit after the EU referendum, even if he is on the winning side. Writing on the LabourList website, Perkins warned: “If Labour is confronted with a general election whilst intellectually and organisationally underprepared, divided and underresourced, we would be hurtling towards catastrophe.”

    He said that although under the Fixed-term Parliaments Act the next election was not due until 2020, if a new Tory leader called for an early ballot Labour would have to agree. “The prospect of the prime minister standing down in the event of a vote to leave has been often mooted,” he wrote. “However, I believe that the forces unleashed within the Conservative party are so great that, whether Cameron wins or loses, many of their MPs and activists will feel it is time for a change at the top.


    Can't see it happening, unless Cameron loses the EU referendum. An election does not seem in Labour's interest either, given their current state.Thoughts?
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    5 year parliament


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    Hard to know whether the Tories would call one but if they did, Corbyn would lose and quite badly.
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    The electorate voted for the Tories to lead the Government until 2020.

    It also suits Labour to wait until 2020 before seeking re-election.
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    (Original post by Aj12)
    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/...neral-election

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    Jeremy Corbyn has been told to put Labour on an election footing due to concerns a snap general election could be called later this year.

    Shadow defence minister Toby Perkins said Labour had to be prepared for David Cameron to quit after the EU referendum, even if he is on the winning side. Writing on the LabourList website, Perkins warned: “If Labour is confronted with a general election whilst intellectually and organisationally underprepared, divided and underresourced, we would be hurtling towards catastrophe.”

    He said that although under the Fixed-term Parliaments Act the next election was not due until 2020, if a new Tory leader called for an early ballot Labour would have to agree. “The prospect of the prime minister standing down in the event of a vote to leave has been often mooted,” he wrote. “However, I believe that the forces unleashed within the Conservative party are so great that, whether Cameron wins or loses, many of their MPs and activists will feel it is time for a change at the top.


    Can't see it happening, unless Cameron loses the EU referendum. An election does not seem in Labour's interest either, given their current state.Thoughts?
    Seems like a slow news day story.
    Not going to happen.
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    (Original post by Rakas21)
    Hard to know whether the Tories would call one but if they did, Corbyn would lose and quite badly.
    I would get as many labour voters as i know in marginals to team up with libdems, it would be great to see the tories lose their majority. So if labour, UKIP, Libdems and greens team up in seats labour cant win that would be fantastic
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    (Original post by Bornblue)
    Seems like a slow news day story.
    Not going to happen.
    Sundays for you. The main reason I found it interesting was the thought that even if the tories win the referendum, Cameron would still quit and there would need to be an election due to forces unleashed.

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    (Original post by TheHelpfulMan)
    I would get as many labour voters as i know in marginals to team up with libdems, it would be great to see the tories lose their majority. So if labour, UKIP, Libdems and greens team up in seats labour cant win that would be fantastic
    Can't see Ukip forming such an alliance and i'm not sure Farron would either given how he stands to gain from Lab+Green forming such a left wing alliance.

    That said, polling has the Tories extending their general gains even in polls which are believed to biased against the Tories (their own sampling findings). If an election were held anytime soon, it's likely that the Tories would increase their majority rather than lose it.
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    fixed term Parliament act means next GE is in 2020
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    (Original post by TheArtofProtest)
    The electorate voted for the Tories to lead the Government until 2020.

    It also suits Labour to wait until 2020 before seeking re-election.
    How does it? day by day labour losing voters they only win elections by vote rigging
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    As others have said, we have fixed parliaments now so your 'democracy' can wait for another 4 years please.
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    (Original post by paul514)
    5 year parliament


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    (Original post by saxsan4)
    fixed term Parliament act means next GE is in 2020
    (Original post by mojojojo101)
    As others have said, we have fixed parliaments now so your 'democracy' can wait for another 4 years please.
    Not really.

    The FTP Act 2011 has 2 provisions in which it can call an election earlier than the stipulated 5 year term.

    a) If it passes a motion detailing that the House of Commons has no confidence in the Government or,
    b) If 2/3rds of the chamber agrees to dissolve the Government.


    If Cameron were to step down in the event that we vote to leave the EU, then the next Tory leader would perhaps seek the second method in which to dissolve Parliament. However, he/she would need at least another 100 or so MP's from other parties (as well as all of his own party) to vote for the motion.

    (Original post by saxsan4)
    How does it? day by day labour losing voters they only win elections by vote rigging
    a) Inexperienced leader dealing with the fallout of the UK leaving the EU - Should Cameron resign, a party leader election will be triggered and it is quite unlikely that the person that will replace Cameron will be as experienced. Furthermore, the effects of leaving the EU will be uncharted territory for any leader, not just the Conservatives and it will be difficult and brutal. I really wouldn't be surprised if Cameron were to resign after the UK voted to leave, the Tory party had 2 new leaders before contesting the 2020 election.

    b) The effects of leaving the EU will not be so apparent in the first 6-12 months but it will really kick in after 18 months. The electorate have short memories so if Cameron does resign, and as the new leader inevitably fails to contain the fallout, 2020 will be swinging just round the corner.


    The only saving grace for the Conservatives would be a slow trickle of UKIP voters returning if Britain decides to leave the EU. I'm going to be reckless and state a general assumption that the EU will destroy Britain but it will save the Conservative Party.

    If Britain votes to stay in the EU, the Conservatives will fracture as a party and it is likely that many voters, especially in the South East (normally Conservative strongholds) will "defect to UKIP", thus splitting the vote and at least giving Labour an opportunity to perhaps govern as a minority, with occasional alliances with the SNP.


    It's very strange times for Labour because depending on how they vote in the EU referendum, they have the opportunity to either render the Conservatives inept for a couple of Parliament terms, or they have the opportunity to strengthen grassroots support for the traditional Labour Party, something that has been lacking for the last couple of years.

    Will duty to country triumph over duty to party?
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    (Original post by TheArtofProtest)
    Not really.

    The FTP Act 2011 has 2 provisions in which it can call an election earlier than the stipulated 5 year term.

    a) If it passes a motion detailing that the House of Commons has no confidence in the Government or,
    b) If 2/3rds of the chamber agrees to dissolve the Government.


    If Cameron were to step down in the event that we vote to leave the EU, then the next Tory leader would perhaps seek the second method in which to dissolve Parliament. However, he/she would need at least another 100 or so MP's from other parties (as well as all of his own party) to vote for the motion.



    a) Inexperienced leader dealing with the fallout of the UK leaving the EU - Should Cameron resign, a party leader election will be triggered and it is quite unlikely that the person that will replace Cameron will be as experienced. Furthermore, the effects of leaving the EU will be uncharted territory for any leader, not just the Conservatives and it will be difficult and brutal. I really wouldn't be surprised if Cameron were to resign after the UK voted to leave, the Tory party had 2 new leaders before contesting the 2020 election.

    b) The effects of leaving the EU will not be so apparent in the first 6-12 months but it will really kick in after 18 months. The electorate have short memories so if Cameron does resign, and as the new leader inevitably fails to contain the fallout, 2020 will be swinging just round the corner.


    The only saving grace for the Conservatives would be a slow trickle of UKIP voters returning if Britain decides to leave the EU. I'm going to be reckless and state a general assumption that the EU will destroy Britain but it will save the Conservative Party.

    If Britain votes to stay in the EU, the Conservatives will fracture as a party and it is likely that many voters, especially in the South East (normally Conservative strongholds) will "defect to UKIP", thus splitting the vote and at least giving Labour an opportunity to perhaps govern as a minority, with occasional alliances with the SNP.


    It's very strange times for Labour because depending on how they vote in the EU referendum, they have the opportunity to either render the Conservatives inept for a couple of Parliament terms, or they have the opportunity to strengthen grassroots support for the traditional Labour Party, something that has been lacking for the last couple of years.

    Will duty to country triumph over duty to party?
    Which simply won't happen as the government won't call an election they don't think they can win and 100 opposition MP's won't vote for an election they don't think they can't win.

    It's a stalemate hence why it truly is a fixed parliament


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    (Original post by paul514)
    Which simply won't happen as the government won't call an election they don't think they can win and 100 opposition MP's won't vote for an election they don't think they can't win.
    The Government's (or whatever is left standing after the dust settles) position may become untenable and it's not a foregone conclusion that the new leader would command the confidence of the house, thus triggering a no confidence motion (and probably a new party leader).

    Over a third of Conservative MP's are looking over their shoulder at the UKIP votes and it's not likely that Labour Party would seek to oppose such a motion.

    It's a stalemate hence why it truly is a fixed parliament
    The Government may limp until the end of it's term but the question was would Corbyn agree to a snap election and the answer is no because it suits the Labour Party for the Conservatives to be seen as an ineffective government.

    If it comes to a no confidence motion, then Labour will be forced to go to the polls.

    It is inevitable that Labour will win the most seats of any party at the next GE but the only question is how much baggage they will carry through to future GEs.
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    God, I hope they get rid of the Fixed Term Parliaments Act when it's up for review in 2020. One of the dumbest constitutional 'reforms' of this century so far.
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    (Original post by gladders)
    God, I hope they get rid of the Fixed Term Parliaments Act when it's up for review in 2020. One of the dumbest constitutional 'reforms' of this century so far.
    Hmm, could you explain why its so bad?

    (I could be wrong but didn't the previous system give undue power to the prime minister to hold it a date of their choosing? Whilst obviously having a fixed term parliament does mean that governments often operate on the short term isnt that essentially a wider critique of democracy?)
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    Back on Topic:

    Whilst Labour would do poorly I cant see the Tories doing that well either as David Cameron now has to bare the consequences of egging on Eurosceptics whilst supporting the EU.
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    (Original post by Davij038)
    Hmm, could you explain why its so bad?

    (I could be wrong but didn't the previous system give undue power to the prime minister to hold it a date of their choosing? Whilst obviously having a fixed term parliament does mean that governments often operate on the short term isnt that essentially a wider critique of democracy?)
    I've heard that argument before about it giving the PM undue power, but it rarely ever transpired that way. It's a double-edged sword; they may seek advantage but get a shock. Anyway, for the past forty years elections have generally been 4-5 years anyway.

    What's more, there's a habit in other countries with fixed-term parliaments that governments seek advantage ahead of an upcoming election by using the economic tools at their disposal to drum up support for themselves - such as benefits, interest rates, and so on - thereby helping secure electoral victory at the cost of short-term economic stability. The result being greater economic hurt for ordinary people in the years following an election as the ensuing government, whether the victorious incumbent or a new winner - dealing with the damage but never learning the lesson.

    With flexible election dates, that can be minimised by simply having an election when the going was good.

    I'll try to find the paper I read that in (it was back in my Masters!), but it was an eye-opener to me.
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    (Original post by gladders)
    I've heard that argument before about it giving the PM undue power, but it rarely ever transpired that way. It's a double-edged sword; they may seek advantage but get a shock. Anyway, for the past forty years elections have generally been 4-5 years anyway.

    What's more, there's a habit in other countries with fixed-term parliaments that governments seek advantage ahead of an upcoming election by using the economic tools at their disposal to drum up support for themselves - such as benefits, interest rates, and so on - thereby helping secure electoral victory at the cost of short-term economic stability. The result being greater economic hurt for ordinary people in the years following an election as the ensuing government, whether the victorious incumbent or a new winner - dealing with the damage but never learning the lesson.

    With flexible election dates, that can be minimised by simply having an election when the going was good.

    I'll try to find the paper I read that in (it was back in my Masters!), but it was an eye-opener to me.
    Hmm, that does sound interesting. IIRC Wilson unexpectedly lost to Heath in such a fashion.
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    (Original post by TheArtofProtest)

    It is inevitable that Labour will win the most seats of any party at the next GE but the only question is how much baggage they will carry through to future GEs.
    Your posts in this thread have been pretty optimistic for Labour.

    While i do think there's a fair internal threat that the Tories won't be civil in the campaign (and therefore end up coming out of it in a split fashion like the 92-95 period) i don't see this leak to Ukip whether we win or lose (everybody that is headed for Ukip from the Tories has already gone) and i'm far from convinced that a Labour win is inevitable.

    Personally speaking i still place the chances of the Tories being the largest party at 66% and having a majority at probably 50% (this much depends on who becomes leader).
 
 
 
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