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Brexit and recession Watch

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    (Original post by Jammy Duel)
    The thing is that moving is not a decision taken lightly, it isn't exactly something that can be done easily and cheaply overnight. It further has to be considered that if they were really thinking of moving they likely would have done so already.

    Posted from TSR Mobile
    I don't think companies will move out of the country. The more likely scenario is large companies that export a lot of their goods to the EU like Toyota will invest more in the EU and run down their factories in the UK so reducing British jobs.

    New companies or existing companies that want a base in Europe would look at where the major markets are and locate themselves where they have have fewer costs with imports and exports and simpler red tape.
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    (Original post by Pegasus2)
    I wasn't suggesting we adopt self-sufficiency or anything. Trade is good, but that we at least protect our industries and jobs to retain our skills.

    If you have a country dropping masses of steel on the market short term with the attempt at sinking your indurstry, you could stipulate that all infrastructure projects use British steel.

    I'm not saying that you fund businesses that are consistantly loss making but I do think the goverment should be able to support industry through short term tough times. The EU prevents this kind of thing by law.

    Like I said, we can no longer produce AFV's anymore because the factory closed down. So we'll have to buy tanks from somewhere else instead of designing and building our own. Same with trains etc etc.

    I think people are proud of the things their country produces. With manufacturing goes a certain sense of national identity and pride. Germany is certainly proud of their automotive industry. Other countries subsidise certain areas of their industry to promote growth or temorarily protect it.

    This still doesn't change the fact that we have to tender out contracts to foreign companies opertating outside the UK which don't necessarily have the UK's best interests in mind.

    I don't see that we get a very good deal from the EU. Some people said we pay more as our population is bigger....so what? We're still locked into certain laws drawn up by unelected groups of people and pay more for it, how does that benefit us?
    Cheap steel coming into the country disadvantage steel workers but its good for workers in industries that uses steel like car makers and construction.

    In effect, China is subsidising British car makers and making them more competitive and increasing jobs in car making. If cheap steel imports were stopped, British car makers would be forced to buy more expensive steel and become less competitive and reduce car making jobs.
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    (Original post by Maker)
    Seems to me if Britain leaves the EU, lots of companies would relocate to other parts of the EU and Britain will see a lose of jobs and a recession.

    On the plus side, some immigrants would leave since they would not have jobs.
    Majority of people on TSR are so indoctrinated by propaganda they forgot to check the following:

    1. Dow Jones. (USA)
    2. FTSE 100. (UK)
    3. DAX (GERMANY)
    4. CAC 40 (FRANCE)
    5. IBEX 35 (SPAIN)
    6. OMXS30 (SWEDEN)
    7. OSE ALL SHARE (NORWAY)
    8. SSMI (SWITZ LAND)
    9. BEL 20 (BELGIUM)
    10. PX INDEX (CZECH REPUBLIC)
    11. MICEX INDEX (RUSSIA)
    12. GD AT (GREECE).

    Your see a decline in all those markets. USA is in Recession! Europe is in Recession and the UK is in Recession!

    We need to get out of the EU because we are in the middle of a perfect storm where Europe and the US are going to break down at roughly the same time. Get out now and avoid the bailouts.

    Also we need to stand up to Comrade Corbyn and Mark Carney. We don't want Quantitative Easing. The ECB, FED and Bank of Japan are printing stupid amounts of money out of thin air. We need to let the whole house of cards crash and fall down and then we can think about building Britain back up again with our new trading partners which include China, India and the new emerging economies in the East.

    All the Pro-Europe talk and Keynesian Economics is the exact reason we are in a mess.

    1. A strong Euro stops poorer countries like Greece, Romania and Latvia etc from exporting their goods which mainly comprise of agricultural goods. Poorer countries need a weaker currency so they can export better.

    And if we join the Euro currency in any event of hyper inflation setting in it will effect us too. We need to keep the Pound and get the Europeans hands off our democracy.

    2. Ever since Keynesian's started controlling central banks 1st world debt has sky rocketed along with mountains of private investment banking debt which is hidden on various balance sheets. The whole reason why the UK and the USA are so debted up is because of morons like Ben Bernanke and Paul Krugman have duped the general public into thinking Robert Mugabe helicopter drops are prudent fiscal policy................

    That is until the system collapses and we don't even have the money to type stuff like this on the internet because there wont be a internet in the UK for the majority of people.

    The EU is pro-Keynesian and loves doing QE! We need to get out because QE is bad!

    3. We are a Island nation. We have less physical resources than Europe and people need to start thinking mathematically rather than listening to all the cultural marxism rubbish.

    We go crazy about animal welfare where chickens should have enough room to exhibit their natural behavior but when people try to suggest applying this rule to human beings people don't care and call the pro-British advocate a racist.

    Country is full. Public Services are breaking. We cannot cope. We need to get out while we can.
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    (Original post by illegaltobepoor)
    Majority of people on TSR are so indoctrinated by propaganda they forgot to check the following:

    1. Dow Jones. (USA)
    2. FTSE 100. (UK)
    3. DAX (GERMANY)
    4. CAC 40 (FRANCE)
    5. IBEX 35 (SPAIN)
    6. OMXS30 (SWEDEN)
    7. OSE ALL SHARE (NORWAY)
    8. SSMI (SWITZ LAND)
    9. BEL 20 (BELGIUM)
    10. PX INDEX (CZECH REPUBLIC)
    11. MICEX INDEX (RUSSIA)
    12. GD AT (GREECE).

    Your see a decline in all those markets. USA is in Recession! Europe is in Recession and the UK is in Recession!

    We need to get out of the EU because we are in the middle of a perfect storm where Europe and the US are going to break down at roughly the same time. Get out now and avoid the bailouts.

    Also we need to stand up to Comrade Corbyn and Mark Carney. We don't want Quantitative Easing. The ECB, FED and Bank of Japan are printing stupid amounts of money out of thin air. We need to let the whole house of cards crash and fall down and then we can think about building Britain back up again with our new trading partners which include China, India and the new emerging economies in the East.

    All the Pro-Europe talk and Keynesian Economics is the exact reason we are in a mess.

    1. A strong Euro stops poorer countries like Greece, Romania and Latvia etc from exporting their goods which mainly comprise of agricultural goods. Poorer countries need a weaker currency so they can export better.

    And if we join the Euro currency in any event of hyper inflation setting in it will effect us too. We need to keep the Pound and get the Europeans hands off our democracy.

    2. Ever since Keynesian's started controlling central banks 1st world debt has sky rocketed along with mountains of private investment banking debt which is hidden on various balance sheets. The whole reason why the UK and the USA are so debted up is because of morons like Ben Bernanke and Paul Krugman have duped the general public into thinking Robert Mugabe helicopter drops are prudent fiscal policy................

    That is until the system collapses and we don't even have the money to type stuff like this on the internet because there wont be a internet in the UK for the majority of people.

    The EU is pro-Keynesian and loves doing QE! We need to get out because QE is bad!

    3. We are a Island nation. We have less physical resources than Europe and people need to start thinking mathematically rather than listening to all the cultural marxism rubbish.

    We go crazy about animal welfare where chickens should have enough room to exhibit their natural behavior but when people try to suggest applying this rule to human beings people don't care and call the pro-British advocate a racist.

    Country is full. Public Services are breaking. We cannot cope. We need to get out while we can.
    Rant over?
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    (Original post by illegaltobepoor)
    Majority of people on TSR are so indoctrinated by propaganda they forgot to check the following:

    1. Dow Jones. (USA)
    2. FTSE 100. (UK)
    3. DAX (GERMANY)
    4. CAC 40 (FRANCE)
    5. IBEX 35 (SPAIN)
    6. OMXS30 (SWEDEN)
    7. OSE ALL SHARE (NORWAY)
    8. SSMI (SWITZ LAND)
    9. BEL 20 (BELGIUM)
    10. PX INDEX (CZECH REPUBLIC)
    11. MICEX INDEX (RUSSIA)
    12. GD AT (GREECE).

    Your see a decline in all those markets. USA is in Recession! Europe is in Recession and the UK is in Recession!

    We need to get out of the EU because we are in the middle of a perfect storm where Europe and the US are going to break down at roughly the same time. Get out now and avoid the bailouts.

    Also we need to stand up to Comrade Corbyn and Mark Carney. We don't want Quantitative Easing. The ECB, FED and Bank of Japan are printing stupid amounts of money out of thin air. We need to let the whole house of cards crash and fall down and then we can think about building Britain back up again with our new trading partners which include China, India and the new emerging economies in the East.

    All the Pro-Europe talk and Keynesian Economics is the exact reason we are in a mess.

    1. A strong Euro stops poorer countries like Greece, Romania and Latvia etc from exporting their goods which mainly comprise of agricultural goods. Poorer countries need a weaker currency so they can export better.

    And if we join the Euro currency in any event of hyper inflation setting in it will effect us too. We need to keep the Pound and get the Europeans hands off our democracy.

    2. Ever since Keynesian's started controlling central banks 1st world debt has sky rocketed along with mountains of private investment banking debt which is hidden on various balance sheets. The whole reason why the UK and the USA are so debted up is because of morons like Ben Bernanke and Paul Krugman have duped the general public into thinking Robert Mugabe helicopter drops are prudent fiscal policy................

    That is until the system collapses and we don't even have the money to type stuff like this on the internet because there wont be a internet in the UK for the majority of people.

    The EU is pro-Keynesian and loves doing QE! We need to get out because QE is bad!

    3. We are a Island nation. We have less physical resources than Europe and people need to start thinking mathematically rather than listening to all the cultural marxism rubbish.

    We go crazy about animal welfare where chickens should have enough room to exhibit their natural behavior but when people try to suggest applying this rule to human beings people don't care and call the pro-British advocate a racist.

    Country is full. Public Services are breaking. We cannot cope. We need to get out while we can.
    Ummm, none of the places you gave are in recession, well Russia is but they generally aren't included when talking of Europe in this context. Recession and depression are economic things and independent of market trends, even if the two are often related in movements. A bear market is legally possible during booms and is ultimately just a case of a large correction of an overvalued market, such as pretty much all major indices this time last year.

    We also don't pay into our recieve EU bailouts due to not using the Euro, and when America goes under the causes means all developed nations are likely to go under. But the UK is in a unique position that means we may well just miss recession in the same way that we did rather well last time; the size of the city means it's very easy for us to shift investment from weaker to stronger markets, not that there will be many left, meaning we can weather the storm far better than those nations bound to Europe or the US.

    You'll also find that the biggest winners of there Euro project are not the small weak nations like Bulgaria and Greece, but the powerhouses of France and Germany who get an artificially weak currency from it, although they are also, particularly France, bogged down by out when everything goes south, as we can see with their high unemployment and barely existent growth.

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    (Original post by Maker)
    Rant over?
    I think your find companies will flood into Britain because the EU and the USA are going to be in a big bad depression soon. We need to avoid what the Bank of Japan has done. Keynesian-ism and QE does not work!

    We can have best of both worlds. Leave the EU and practice Austrian Economics. When the EU and USA is falling apart big corporations will settle in the UK because we will be the most secure place in the Northern Hemisphere.
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    (Original post by illegaltobepoor)
    Majority of people on TSR are so indoctrinated by propaganda they forgot to check the following:

    1. Dow Jones. (USA)
    2. FTSE 100. (UK)
    3. DAX (GERMANY)
    4. CAC 40 (FRANCE)
    5. IBEX 35 (SPAIN)
    6. OMXS30 (SWEDEN)
    7. OSE ALL SHARE (NORWAY)
    8. SSMI (SWITZ LAND)
    9. BEL 20 (BELGIUM)
    10. PX INDEX (CZECH REPUBLIC)
    11. MICEX INDEX (RUSSIA)
    12. GD AT (GREECE).

    Your see a decline in all those markets. USA is in Recession! Europe is in Recession and the UK is in Recession!

    We need to get out of the EU because we are in the middle of a perfect storm where Europe and the US are going to break down at roughly the same time. Get out now and avoid the bailouts.

    Also we need to stand up to Comrade Corbyn and Mark Carney. We don't want Quantitative Easing. The ECB, FED and Bank of Japan are printing stupid amounts of money out of thin air. We need to let the whole house of cards crash and fall down and then we can think about building Britain back up again with our new trading partners which include China, India and the new emerging economies in the East.

    All the Pro-Europe talk and Keynesian Economics is the exact reason we are in a mess.

    1. A strong Euro stops poorer countries like Greece, Romania and Latvia etc from exporting their goods which mainly comprise of agricultural goods. Poorer countries need a weaker currency so they can export better.

    And if we join the Euro currency in any event of hyper inflation setting in it will effect us too. We need to keep the Pound and get the Europeans hands off our democracy.

    2. Ever since Keynesian's started controlling central banks 1st world debt has sky rocketed along with mountains of private investment banking debt which is hidden on various balance sheets. The whole reason why the UK and the USA are so debted up is because of morons like Ben Bernanke and Paul Krugman have duped the general public into thinking Robert Mugabe helicopter drops are prudent fiscal policy................

    That is until the system collapses and we don't even have the money to type stuff like this on the internet because there wont be a internet in the UK for the majority of people.

    The EU is pro-Keynesian and loves doing QE! We need to get out because QE is bad!

    3. We are a Island nation. We have less physical resources than Europe and people need to start thinking mathematically rather than listening to all the cultural marxism rubbish.

    We go crazy about animal welfare where chickens should have enough room to exhibit their natural behavior but when people try to suggest applying this rule to human beings people don't care and call the pro-British advocate a racist.

    Country is full. Public Services are breaking. We cannot cope. We need to get out while we can.
    Romania doesn't have the euro.
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    (Original post by Jammy Duel)
    Ummm, none of the places you gave are in recession, well Russia is but they generally aren't included when talking of Europe in this context. Recession and depression are economic things and independent of market trends, even if the two are often related in movements. A bear market is legally possible during booms and is ultimately just a case of a large correction of an overvalued market, such as pretty much all major indices this time last year.

    Posted from TSR Mobile
    Of course Jammy. I mean your words make so much sense that ............ wait a minute what? Gold is up £100 since the FED increased interest rates?

    And what was that Dow Jones lost 1400+ points since Yellen anounced the rate rise? Wait a minute what about the FTSE100?

    Looses 1300 pts since the high of April 2015 of 7000?

    LOL
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    (Original post by illegaltobepoor)
    I think your find companies will flood into Britain because the EU and the USA are going to be in a big bad depression soon. We need to avoid what the Bank of Japan has done. Keynesian-ism and QE does not work!

    We can have best of both worlds. Leave the EU and practice Austrian Economics. When the EU and USA is falling apart big corporations will settle in the UK because we will be the most secure place in the Northern Hemisphere.
    That's not strictly true about Keynesianism, in times of recession the best thing to do is lower taxes and increase capital spending as austerity measures strangle the economy and cause further recessions.

    As for the EU, I'm a massive sceptic and think we should leave. That being said, I don't think that Austria is the place to model our economy on.
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    (Original post by FauxIntellectual)
    Romania doesn't have the euro.
    They will soon.
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    (Original post by illegaltobepoor)
    Of course Jammy. I mean your words make so much sense that ............ wait a minute what? Gold is up £100 since the FED increased interest rates?

    And what was that Dow Jones lost 1400+ points since Yellen anounced the rate rise? Wait a minute what about the FTSE100?

    Looses 1300 pts since the high of April 2015 of 7000?

    LOL
    Gold always goes up when there is uncertainty, and index drops are only minority related to the fed rate changes, they are far more effected by uncertainty in China, oil prices, and then having been overvalued for years. Uncertainty is never good for stock markets and airways food for gold; in times of uncertainty gold is always the safer bet because short of a collapse of capitalism, in which case they lose no matter what, it will always retain a high value, something that cannot be said of companies

    There is also more incorrectness highlighted that I have added to the previous post.

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    (Original post by Lime-man)
    That's not strictly true about Keynesianism, in times of recession the best thing to do is lower taxes and increase capital spending as austerity measures strangle the economy and cause further recessions.

    As for the EU, I'm a massive sceptic and think we should leave. That being said, I don't think that Austria is the place to model our economy on.
    Well Im not saying we could have austerity but at the same time we shouldn't be doing Robert Mugabe helicopter drops and nor should we be in union with the EU who have the ECB who are doing it.

    We should be using the current deflation to our advantage and making more productive use of land labor and capital while taking advantage of cheaper prices from this commodity decline.
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    (Original post by Jammy Duel)
    Gold always goes up when there is uncertainty, and index drops are only minority related to the fed rate changes, they are far more effected by uncertainty in China, oil prices, and then having been overvalued for years. Uncertainty is never good for stock markets and airways food for gold; in times of uncertainty gold is always the safer bet because short of a collapse of capitalism, in which case they lose no matter what, it will always retain a high value, something that cannot be said of companies

    There is also more incorrectness highlighted that I have added to the previous post.

    Posted from TSR Mobile
    I think Gold is going to stagnate as soon as Janet Yellen announces a rate decline and then go down into QE4 but after about 2 years there is going to be a eruption in Gold price increase which no central banker can control and with China, India and Russia holding the majority of the worlds Gold there will be nothing manipulating the western markets.

    So I would buy when you can and stick it in a underground safe and put a good layer of concrete ontop.
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    (Original post by Maker)
    Seems to me if Britain leaves the EU, lots of companies would relocate to other parts of the EU and Britain will see a lose of jobs and a recession.

    On the plus side, some immigrants would leave since they would not have jobs.
    Now why would any company want to relocate to Euro zone? A currency in crisis, a banking sector on the verge of collapse, higher taxes, harsher employment regulations, (higher minimum wages, lower working hour limits, more organized labour )

    Why would a company abandon the UK and relocate to France? I don't get it.
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    (Original post by illegaltobepoor)
    I think Gold is going to stagnate as soon as Janet Yellen announces a rate decline and then go down into QE4 but after about 2 years there is going to be a eruption in Gold price increase which no central banker can control and with China, India and Russia holding the majority of the worlds Gold there will be nothing manipulating the western markets.

    So I would buy when you can and stick it in a underground safe and put a good layer of concrete ontop.
    Gold will go down when confidence in the markets returns, when uncertainty declines again. Why by gold? Because it's a safe investment, gold always maintains a high real value, holding money in cash relies on low inflation or even deflation for it to maintain its value, something that is not the case for bonds or gold, and it's factually incorrect to say those nations hold most of the gold. The US hold about a quarter of all gold, Germany an eighth, Italy about a fifteenth, France a similar amount, China about 3pc along with Switzerland and Russia, then you get Japan with about 2.5%, the Dutch with about 2pc and India with a little less.

    They are the top 10 according to BI

    http://www.businessinsider.com/count...14-2?op=1&IR=T

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    (Original post by Lime-man)
    That's not strictly true about Keynesianism, in times of recession the best thing to do is lower taxes and increase capital spending as austerity measures strangle the economy and cause further recessions.

    As for the EU, I'm a massive sceptic and think we should leave. That being said, I don't think that Austria is the place to model our economy on.
    He's talking about Austrian economics, nit the country. This branch is considered rather radical today and supported mostly by ancaps.
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    (Original post by Howard)
    Now why would any company want to relocate to Euro zone? A currency in crisis, a banking sector on the verge of collapse, higher taxes, harsher employment regulations, (higher minimum wages, lower working hour limits, more organized labour )

    Why would a company abandon the UK and relocate to France? I don't get it.
    The euro banks are not in crisis and even if they were, all banks will be affected including UK banks since all banks are connected.

    Productivity is higher in most EU countries compared to the UK so its a no brainer even if most EU countries have more regulations and higher wages. One of the reason why Britain does well for unemployment compared to France is British workers are cheaper because they have lower productivity.
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    (Original post by Jammy Duel)
    Gold will go down when confidence in the markets returns, when uncertainty declines again. Why by gold? Because it's a safe investment, gold always maintains a high real value, holding money in cash relies on low inflation or even deflation for it to maintain its value, something that is not the case for bonds or gold, and it's factually incorrect to say those nations hold most of the gold. The US hold about a quarter of all gold, Germany an eighth, Italy about a fifteenth, France a similar amount, China about 3pc along with Switzerland and Russia, then you get Japan with about 2.5%, the Dutch with about 2pc and India with a little less.

    They are the top 10 according to BI

    http://www.businessinsider.com/count...14-2?op=1&IR=T

    Posted from TSR Mobile
    You're right to say that gold prices benefit from market uncertainty and volatility but wrong to say that Gold always maintain a high real value. The spot price for gold is $1238.40. It hit $1911.60 in 2011 so it's not a safe investment at all - either in physical terms of for investors who have money tied up in mining stocks (for example - Barrick Gold $54.39 in 2011 against $16.95 today)
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    (Original post by Howard)
    You're right to say that gold prices benefit from market uncertainty and volatility but wrong to say that Gold always maintain a high real value. The spot price for gold is $1238.40. It hit $1911.60 in 2011 so it's not a safe investment at all - either in physical terms of for investors who have money tied up in mining stocks (for example - Barrick Gold $54.39 in 2011 against $16.95 today)
    But at the same time, much like the markets, the price is overinflated, much like when it spiked in the early 80s, if we look at the 50 year real price graph it was around $300 through the 60s and early 70s, spiked above the 2000 mark in the early 80s before dropping to 600-800 through the rest of the 80s, back down to 400 with the market boom around the turn of the century before creeping up to current prices and the spike in the early decade. The current prices are rather average for the post crash period and with no signs of major global stability there is no real reason to expect another crash such as after the early 80s crisis or 2011.

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    I told you all to buy gold

 
 
 
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