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Brexit and recession Watch

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    (Original post by Maker)
    The euro banks are not in crisis and even if they were, all banks will be affected including UK banks since all banks are connected.

    Productivity is higher in most EU countries compared to the UK so its a no brainer even if most EU countries have more regulations and higher wages. One of the reason why Britain does well for unemployment compared to France is British workers are cheaper because they have lower productivity.
    Pretty much disagree with everything you've said there.

    First of all, the Euro banks are in crisis. Stoxx Europe 600 Banks Index FX7 has just logged six straight weeks of declines, its longest weekly losing stretch since 2008.

    http://www.forbes.com/sites/petertch.../#29314e7b5b2f
    http://www.cnbc.com/2016/02/03/
    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/why...ous-2016-02-07
    http://uk.businessinsider.com/europe...p-speed-2016-2
    And so on and so forth and so ad infinitum........

    Secondly, British workers are cheaper than French workers because employment costs are higher.

    It costs $31.23 per hour to employ a British worker (this includes $22.27 for pay, $4.11 for benefits, and $4.86 for social insurance and labour related tax) In France it costs $39.81 per hour (this includes $20.51 for pay, $7.38 for benefits, and $11.92 for social insurance and labour related tax)
    http://www.bls.gov/fls/country.htm

    So the UK has an advantage of $8.58/hr most of which is attributable to lower employee benefit an ss costs). That's a 21.55% benefit. So the next obvious question is whether Labour productivity in France is more than 21.55% higher than in the UK. In a word, no. Labour productivity per hour worked (ESA 95) in France (2013) was 45.6. In the UK it was 39.2 (16.32% higher)
    http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/tgm/tab...ec310&plugin=1
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    (Original post by Jammy Duel)
    But at the same time, much like the markets, the price is overinflated, much like when it spiked in the early 80s, if we look at the 50 year real price graph it was around $300 through the 60s and early 70s, spiked above the 2000 mark in the early 80s before dropping to 600-800 through the rest of the 80s, back down to 400 with the market boom around the turn of the century before creeping up to current prices and the spike in the early decade. The current prices are rather average for the post crash period and with no signs of major global stability there is no real reason to expect another crash such as after the early 80s crisis or 2011.

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    True but let's not get too excited about year charts. In 1960 for instance the price of gold wasn't floating. It was set. It only began to float in 1973 which was about the time the US finally shed the residual yolk of the gold standard.

    Other than that I'd agree with you. Gold has been remarkably constant save a huge spike in 1980 which coincided with a lot of economic volatility and of course more recently from about 2006 on and rapidly increasing after 2008 when again we faced temptuous economic seas!

    I don't see a crash for gold either. I see a climb. I hope I'm right as I've just invested money in mining stocks.
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    (Original post by Howard)
    True but let's not get too excited about year charts. In 1960 for instance the price of gold wasn't floating. It was set. It only began to float in 1973 which was about the time the US finally shed the residual yolk of the gold standard.

    Other than that I'd agree with you. Gold has been remarkably constant save a huge spike in 1980 which coincided with a lot of economic volatility and of course more recently from about 2006 on and rapidly increasing after 2008 when again we faced temptuous economic seas!

    I don't see a crash for gold either. I see a climb. I hope I'm right as I've just invested money in mining stocks.
    Which makes the initial statements largely true. There will always be the exceptions such as early 80s and 2011, but on the whole, particularly at the moment, gold is a very safe investment.

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    I wouldn't fall for all the UKIP/Vote Leave/ Brexit rhetoric. I think Brexit will affect trading because products will be subject to tarriffs, causing problems to the economy. There is a reason why so many companies want Britain to remain.

    We'll see after the referendum. I can't vote, so I'm hoping the people will see common sense on referendum day and use that to make their judgement rather than David Cameron/Nigel Farage/ any other political figures.
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    (Original post by domlang123)
    I wouldn't fall for all the UKIP/Vote Leave/ Brexit rhetoric. I think Brexit will affect trading because products will be subject to tarriffs, causing problems to the economy. There is a reason why so many companies want Britain to remain.

    We'll see after the referendum. I can't vote, so I'm hoping the people will see common sense on referendum day and use that to make their judgement rather than David Cameron/Nigel Farage/ any other political figures.
    You do realise that Cameron is campaigning to stay with the status quo, right?

    Also, the problem with Europe imposing tariffs is it will hit them hard too, we can just as easily impose tarrifs in return and they are in a far more precarious position with very weak growth in most of the eurozone with their net figures being inflated by Germany. We will likely be hit hard in the short term, but we have the slack to accommodate that hit, most of Europe do not; unless China hits hard at the same time we will avoid recession, much of Europe will not.

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    (Original post by Jammy Duel)
    Gold will go down when confidence in the markets returns, when uncertainty declines again. Why by gold? Because it's a safe investment, gold always maintains a high real value, holding money in cash relies on low inflation or even deflation for it to maintain its value, something that is not the case for bonds or gold, and it's factually incorrect to say those nations hold most of the gold. The US hold about a quarter of all gold, Germany an eighth, Italy about a fifteenth, France a similar amount, China about 3pc along with Switzerland and Russia, then you get Japan with about 2.5%, the Dutch with about 2pc and India with a little less.

    They are the top 10 according to BI

    http://www.businessinsider.com/count...14-2?op=1&IR=T

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    I wouldn't buy any Gold from the US at the moment because a lot of people are finding out bars are being filled with Tungsten.

    Also when you realize that the US economy is largely filled with hot air based on monetary policy of a expanding base currency due to QE you will abandon your position.

    You can hold me to this Jammy but I reckon the Dow is going into recession territory and Janet Yellen will back off with her rate rises by the end of the year.

    As for Gold I think it might fall a little but 2 years after QE4 it will rocket. I would buy now while you can. Get some of them 1 OZ Bullion Coins. You could hide them in a lot of places ^^
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    (Original post by illegaltobepoor)
    I wouldn't buy any Gold from the US at the moment because a lot of people are finding out bars are being filled with Tungsten.

    Also when you realize that the US economy is largely filled with hot air based on monetary policy of a expanding base currency due to QE you will abandon your position.

    You can hold me to this Jammy but I reckon the Dow is going into recession territory and Janet Yellen will back off with her rate rises by the end of the year.

    As for Gold I think it might fall a little but 2 years after QE4 it will rocket. I would buy now while you can. Get some of them 1 OZ Bullion Coins. You could hide them in a lot of places ^^
    Once again, it is impossible for a stock market to go into recession because recession is something that happens to economies.
 
 
 
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