How come Hilary is still favourite to become president?

karl pilkington

Even though she got beaten by Bernie in the primary?

Reply 1

Kyx

Original post by Speckle

There are two main reasons.

And they are both saggy.

Reply 2

username1221160

There is one primary/caucus per state. She only lost one primary.

Reply 3

dontargue

Original post by karl pilkington

Even though she got beaten by Bernie in the primary?

Because the Primaries are meaningless in terms of the Presidency: for example, she won one of the first ones comfortably last time, but she did not go on to become the nominee. In fact, that NH Primary has a very poor record of relevance to the Presidency. NH is also a very unrepresentative state in nearly every way, so to get a clearer picture we need to wait for 'Super Tuesday' in March.
She's probably also still 'favourite' because this is America we are talking about - a nation where even the suggestion that a 0.5% tax increase would be a positive thing if it could fund desirable projects - and Sanders' promises of 'free' NHS style health care do not gell with what one might call realists.

(edited 8 years ago)

Reply 4

karl pilkington

Original post by dontargue

ok thanks

Reply 5

The_Opinion

Original post by karl pilkington

Even though she got beaten by Bernie in the primary?

Hillary is yet to utilise one of her biggest weapons, the southern firewall.

Reply 6

Drewski

Hillary has the much greater appeal and recognition throughout the country.

And NH neighbours Vermont, which Bernie Sanders represents, so it was always likely he'd do well in the region.

Cos she's well fit.

a) The Clinton name still holds a lot of clout;
b) She's a woman and a lot of people think that should be sufficient to govern a country.

Reply 9

Howard

Original post by dontargue

You're right. The NH primary is not relevant to the Presidency. It is however HIGHLY relevant to becoming a nominee. In fact a win in New Hampshire increases a candidate's share of the final primary count in all states by 27 percentage points. That's the power of the media attention that NH attracts.

Reply 10

SJSS

Because most US voters are apathetic and too busy or lazy to care about politics so will just vote for her because NBC tells them to and they want a female president. Anyone researching her realises shes the worst possible candidate.

Reply 11

eniet

The prevailing opinion for the past year has been (and still is) that even if Sanders is able attract young, liberal and white voters, Hillary still has a very deep support among minorities. African-Americans favor her overwhelmingly above Sanders. This explains why most bettors are unfettered by Iowa and New Hampshire: they are both white northern states and among the best ones for Sanders. However, they aren't reflective of the overall Democratic electorate which particularly in the Southern states is rooted in Blacks and Hispanics. As long as Hillary keeps his overwhelming majority among those voters (and she has), most people do not think she has much to worry.

Why does Hillary command such popularity with minorities? Conventional wisdom gives two main reasons:

1) Name recognition. Bill Clinton was already in his time dubbed the "first black president" in regards to his stance on minorities. Hillary has a consistent record on supporting minority rights as well (this is not to say that Bernie doesn't).

2) She represents continuity in regards to Obama. She has painted herself as an experienced and reliable candidate to continue the legacy of Obama. In 2012 he received 95% of the black vote in the general election so it's no surprise that she is popular among that segment.

Most people won't start taking Sanders' chances seriously unless he can prove that he can also make a serious dent to Clinton in the next two states, Nevada and South Carolina which both have much more diverse electorates than Iowa or New Hampshire. If Sanders manages to win SC, a state whose democratic electorate is 57% minorities, then Clinton is in deep problems.