Hey there! Sign in to join this conversationNew here? Join for free

Syrian war End Game? Possible scenarios. Watch

    • Thread Starter
    Offline

    19
    ReputationRep:
    The war in Syria is now hotting up and possibly heading towards its end game.

    Alliances are being formed between the Assad/ Russian side and the Kurdish YPG and Syrian Democratic forces united against the Jihadists and ISIS.

    The battle is for closing the strategic Afrin Corridor. See live map

    http://isis.liveuamap.com/en/2016/14...j-in-ne-aleppo

    With this corridor closed the jihadists an ISIS will be cut off from their major supply route to Turkey.
    The Kurds goal is to take this land and link up the Western Kurdistan (Afrin canton) and unite it with Syrian Eastern Kurdistan (Rojava).

    However Assad is determined to take back the whole of Syria under his control.

    So is Assad and his Russian allies using the Kurds to fight ISIS?

    Its understandable that the war weary Syrian Army want an easy victory without having to fight the formidable ISIS head hunters.
    They will support the Kurds in this fight to take the Afrin corridor cutting off ISIS from its (suspected) ally Turkey. Then with Russian airstrikes and a Syrian army advance defeat the Kurds and claim victory. Right?

    Not necessarily so. The Kurds have unwillingly done Assad a huge favor in their quest for destroying ISIS and expanding territory. They are the only effective ground opposition against ISIS. The FSA has been unwilling to fight ISIS and the Syrian army has made very small negligible advances.

    Its thanks to the Kurds cutting the main supply route to Raqqa that the Daesh are weakened and less of a threat to Assad.
    Now the Kurds are set to cut off the FSA and Al nusra supply routes from Turkey near Azaz.
    Assad owes the Kurds big time!

    Secondly Assad is no freind of Turkey. Its Erdogan's Turkey that has stirred up a lot of the troubles in Syria, supplying jihadists providing an entry route to the Daesh(isis) head hunters. The last thing Assad wants is to share a border with Turkey.

    Possible Scenario.
    Assad will allow an autonomy of sorts for a Syrian Kurdistan spanning the entire Northern border of Syria.
    The Kurds will prevent any future interference or entry of Jihadists into Syria.

    Any aggression by Turkey on to this free state could result in Turkey being expelled from NATO and action taken against Assads foe.
    Offline

    20
    ReputationRep:
    it will end in tears :yep:
    Offline

    2
    ReputationRep:
    It's not going to end anytime soon. Assad needs to be removed, and to do that Russia has to be removed from the situation which is not going to happen easily.
    Offline

    3
    ReputationRep:
    JAJAJAJAJJAJA.
    Blah blah Syria
    Blah blah Islam
    Blah Blah Israel



    Posted from TSR Mobile
    Offline

    1
    ReputationRep:
    The single most important thing is that the people of Syria, and the people of Syria alone, should decide the future of Syria. We must not allow anyone else to impose their views/outcomes.


    Additionally, the Islamic State and other extremist Islamist groups (e.g. Al Nusra Front) must be defeated (read: they must lose the territory they currently hold). But this can only be done once the Sunni Arab nations get their **** together and launch a ground invasion.


    A ceasefire, with Russian/US/Iranian/Saudi backing, should be extended to as much of the country as possible, leaving only IS and other extremist territory open to war. This should restore some order and allow some work to be done to help alleviate the dire humanitarian situation.


    In the long-run, there should be a transitional government closely followed by an election to decide the future government of Syria. The question here is whether Assad should be able to run. I think he should; the only people who oppose this are those who fear he would win, which conflicts with the Syrian population's right to self-determination (and in such a dispute, the latter should always prevail).
    Offline

    2
    ReputationRep:
    I hope it ends soon. Not only are the Syrian population suffering which terrible on its own, but our own Prime Minister decides to spend money on a war (which in my opinion is like a war of attrition) than on our failing NHS.

    -Just my opinion, please don't hate
    Offline

    2
    ReputationRep:
    (Original post by PFO 24/7)
    The single most important thing is that the people of Syria, and the people of Syria alone, should decide the future of Syria. We must not allow anyone else to impose their views/outcomes.


    Additionally, the Islamic State and other extremist Islamist groups (e.g. Al Nusra Front) must be defeated (read: they must lose the territory they currently hold). But this can only be done once the Sunni Arab nations get their **** together and launch a ground invasion.


    A ceasefire, with Russian/US/Iranian/Saudi backing, should be extended to as much of the country as possible, leaving only IS and other extremist territory open to war. This should restore some order and allow some work to be done to help alleviate the dire humanitarian situation.


    In the long-run, there should be a transitional government closely followed by an election to decide the future government of Syria. The question here is whether Assad should be able to run. I think he should; the only people who oppose this are those who fear he would win, which conflicts with the Syrian population's right to self-determination (and in such a dispute, the latter should always prevail).
    You realise the source of the uprising and the civil war was hatred against Assad in the first place?
    Offline

    1
    ReputationRep:
    (Original post by Frank Underwood)
    You realise the source of the uprising and the civil war was hatred against Assad in the first place?
    Yes.


    Then he won't be elected back in if he runs for election. What is the problem (/your point)?
    Offline

    2
    ReputationRep:
    (Original post by PFO 24/7)
    Yes.


    Then he won't be elected back in if he runs for election. What is the problem (/your point)?
    You're assuming that the elections are devoid of corruption, they aren't. The reason people take to the streets and start an uprising in the countries in the Middle East and North Africa is because of this corruption, they have to physically fight the government to eradicate them because elections are rigged.
    Offline

    1
    ReputationRep:
    (Original post by Frank Underwood)
    You're assuming that the elections are devoid of corruption, they aren't.
    Well, I should have mentioned that under my "long-run" plan the "transition government" would be strongly monitored by the UN, and the subsequent elections would be carried out by the UN.


    That doesn't mean that I think previous Syrian elections were "free", etc. It just means that it is possible for a future election to confer a mandate upon the next government of Syria (as long as it is carried out by the UN (for example)).
    • Very Important Poster
    Online

    19
    Even if Assad is rescued by the Russians, then there will be a lot of paypaback and unrest for many years to come. ISIS wont die. the opposition wint die off nor will the Kurds.
    • Thread Starter
    Offline

    19
    ReputationRep:
    (Original post by TheArtofProtest)
    The Kurds are in for a very nasty shock if they think that Assad will let them keep any territory or grant them autonomy.

    In fact, Russia's aim is to encircle Europe (NATO Allies) and having a buffer state that is the Kurds isn't going to help them, even if the Kurds ascribe to some variations of Marxist-Leninist philosophy.
    Neither does Assad want to keep Turkey as his neighbour. He hates Turkey and he knows the Kurds hate Turkey too and vice versa. Then the Kurds hate ISIS as much as if not more than Assad does.
    Giving the Kurds Iraqi style autonomy like the Iraqi Kurds have could well be a likely outcome. Kurdistan would be a buffer between Syria and Turkey meddling in its affairs or providing access to Jihadists. We all know that Erdogan is an Islamist and has been helping ISIS get in to Syria.

    Mutual Advantages to Assad and the Kurds of a Kurdish buffer state.

    1)It will shut the border with Turkey and prevent Jihadists getting into Syria proper.
    2) The Kurds are secularist socialists and won't help ISIS like Turkey does.
    3) Assads Ba'ath party is a socialist party too.
    4) Kurds are a very secular people like Assads Alawite people are.
    5) They will create a secular buffer zone between Turkey and Syria.
    6) Assad knows an autonomous Kurdisdan will upset Turkey significantly.
    7) The East and west will arm an Autonomous Kurdistan like with the Peshmerga in Iraq creating a state that could aid Assad and defend against Turkey and Jihadists.

    8) Assad could count on mutual trade between Syrian Kurdistan because he knows both the East and west will trade with an autonomous Kurdistan, but the west will refuse to trade with Assad. So both gain.
    9) The opportunity for Iraqi Kurdistan to divert its oil pipeline through Syrian Kurdistan instead of the more unpredictable Turkey.
    Offline

    19
    ReputationRep:
    Basically one by one all the Muslim countries will fall
    Offline

    0
    ReputationRep:
    Pretty sure America uses the Kurds too

    Turkey is mad about that
 
 
 
  • See more of what you like on The Student Room

    You can personalise what you see on TSR. Tell us a little about yourself to get started.

  • Poll
    Break up or unrequited love?
    Useful resources
  • See more of what you like on The Student Room

    You can personalise what you see on TSR. Tell us a little about yourself to get started.

  • The Student Room, Get Revising and Marked by Teachers are trading names of The Student Room Group Ltd.

    Register Number: 04666380 (England and Wales), VAT No. 806 8067 22 Registered Office: International House, Queens Road, Brighton, BN1 3XE

    Quick reply
    Reputation gems: You get these gems as you gain rep from other members for making good contributions and giving helpful advice.