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EU Referendum Confirmed for 23 June 2016 - EU/UK Deal Reached Watch

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    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-35601369

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-35616768

    I'll update the post when the article gets updated, but the EU President Donald Tusk says the unanimous support has been reached.

    Leaks suggest the UK has an opt out for an 'ever closer union'.

    http://twitter.com/GavinLeeBBC/statu...136064/photo/1

    Now a deal has been reached, the EU referendum is expected to be held on 23 June, although this date has not yet been officially confirmed.

    The new deal provides for a seven-year emergency brake on in-work benefits for EU migrant workers, as well as cuts in child benefit for their children living overseas - applicable immediately for new arrivals and from 2020 for the 34,000 existing claimants

    It also says that EU treaties will be amended to state explicitly that references to the requirement to seek ever-closer union "do not apply to the United Kingdom".
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    (Original post by MrDystopia)
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-35601369

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-35616768

    I'll update the post when the article gets updated, but the EU President Donald Tusk says the unanimous support has been reached.

    Leaks suggest the UK has an opt out for an 'ever closer union'.

    http://twitter.com/GavinLeeBBC/statu...136064/photo/1
    Just wow.
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    Finally!
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    Crunch time for the Tories. Bar a recession later in the term these next four months will make or break election 2020 for the Tories. They'll either keep it civil and emerge unified and accepting of the result or they'll destroy each other and be bitter about it ruining the likelyhood of keeping the majority.
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    I see that Mr. Cameron got a deal in time for the 10 O'clock news.

    But, how does this deal change anything?

    Aside from keeping a few members of the Conservative Party and some prominent members of the Cabinet campaigning to Stay, this won't change anyone's opinions. Of course, we've already seen Michael Gove abandon the Prime Minister, and we'll see other Cabinet members and senior Conservative MPs begin to campaign for the Out campaign.

    For those who wish to Stay in the EU, this deal won't change anything: they would have voted to Stay anyway.

    For those who wish to leave because of anti-immigration sentiment, this won't change anything, because most immigrants simply don't come here for in-work benefits. We'll still see large-scale immigration. For the many who wish to leave due to concerns over Europe's treatment of Greece and other countries, and over TTIP, this deal doesn't address their concerns at all. Indeed, this deal simply attempts to pander to the UKIP crowd and some soft Eurosceptic Conservative MPs.
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    Cameron is currently giving a briefing on the deal for those interested.
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    So far, I've heard no actual details about the deal. Cameron's speech, at least the part which they just showed on BBC One, did not specify at all how the deal will achieve any of his supposed objectives.
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    Whatevers in the deal I dont think people care too much. Whatever it was Cameron was always going to hail it as a victory. It will not address the fundamental issues of sovereignty and the equally big issue of immigration. The referendum will be a close run thing with their being a realistic possibility of leaving. Oronically the issue of asylum seekers has very little to do with the EU.
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    Does the brake need to be agreed by other EU members? If not then what is different to what was suggested before?
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    (Original post by MrDystopia)
    Cameron is currently giving a briefing on the deal for those interested.

    This morning I had another talk with the German Chancellor, Frau Merkel, and here is the paper which bears her name upon it as well as mine...
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    (Original post by Rakas21)
    Crunch time for the Tories. Bar a recession later in the term these next four months will make or break election 2020 for the Tories. They'll either keep it civil and emerge unified and accepting of the result or they'll destroy each other and be bitter about it ruining the likelyhood of keeping the majority.
    He's surprised us at numerous points, and this is one of his biggest non-electoral successes. He is an excellent politician (no matter what your opinion is of his policies and the deal itself), I have no doubts he'll keep his party together.
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    This deal is as spontaneous as Swan Lake.

    The only term that matters is the one about ever closer union, because it means that on the issues that aren't even yet issues, we don't have to make a case for British exceptionalism; the UK is exceptional.

    I do not think that many serious Tories will go with "Leave". I am expecting Gove to declare Cameron a second Metternich and Boris to declare him Augustus.
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    Clashes with Glastonbury - postal vote it is then!
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    lol bye eu
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    (Original post by Rakas21)
    Crunch time for the Tories. Bar a recession later in the term these next four months will make or break election 2020 for the Tories. They'll either keep it civil and emerge unified and accepting of the result or they'll destroy each other and be bitter about it ruining the likelyhood of keeping the majority.
    I agree but I don't think its the next four months that will make or break the Tories. It's what happens after and how much bitterness festers.

    Cameron probably hoped in 2013 when he announced this referendum that it would deal with the issue of Europe once and for all. He didn't have the benefit of the hindsight we have now on the Scottish referendum, when opening up that question didn't deal with it, it just stirred up a problem that will not go away with the losers refusing to give up.

    A lot can change but at this point I think we will have a similar result to that in Scotland. There will be a vote to stay in, but it won't be decisive. Something within 55-45 like 53-47 or 52-48. The closer to 50, the more the Eurosceptics will take heart.

    The hangover of the coup against Thatcher tore the Tory party apart and made them lose a decade from 1995 to 2005 when they were unelectable. Now at the moment maybe things aren't too bad because Labour are in a bad state but at some point Labour will reorganise and come back and the danger is that the Tory Eurosceptics will be looking at all of these current "In" Cabinet Ministers as traitors. Especially the ones like Hammond, May, Javid who had hinted at Euroscepticism before. They will be seen as traitors in the same way that those in Thatcher's Cabinet who professed their loyalty to her but then when she had to face the second ballot against Hestletine, they all went in to see her one by one and told her the game was up and she had to go. The right of the Tory party never forgave those Ministers and they fought ruthlessly to undermine John Major's government from the Tory backbenches (one of the ringleaders being the current Work and Pensions Secretary). Which meant when Blair came along, Major was a dead duck, being attacked by his own party and a formidable new opponent.

    I think Cameron will escape in to the sunlight if he leads a narrow In campaign but the question is what then. Maybe one of his "In" colleagues like Osborne, May will take the post and become a target for the resentment in the Tory right like Major was. This won't be a problem at first but at some point a recession or downturn will hit, Labour will be more powerful and start to appeal to Middle England again by which time unless the housing market is sorted out (which it doesn't look like) there will be a generation of Middle England who are stuck renting and angry with the Tories just like the negative equity generation turned on them in the early 1990s. That's when such a leader will face the vengeance of the Tory right for the Eurobetrayal.

    The alternative is that one of the "Out"ers will succeed Cameron and then the whole party will be agitating to overturn the result. They will have the Scottish Nationalists in their ear constantly saying "we demand a new referendum, the UK government LIED to us in 2014" and they will start saying the same thing about the EU. Undoubtedly we will have problems with the EU by then and they will say this isn't what the British people voted for, its time for a new referendum...
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    (Original post by blackdiamond97)
    So far, I've heard no actual details about the deal. Cameron's speech, at least the part which they just showed on BBC One, did not specify at all how the deal will achieve any of his supposed objectives.
    You can read it yourself.
 
 
 
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