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    It seems that the truce in Syria has largely taken hold among the groups that signed up to it.

    Islamist groups like Nusra have not signed up to it (I think Ahrar al Sham and some others aren't included either, but I'm not certain), so there is still some fighting, and some areas are not covered by the ceasefire. ISIS obviously isn't included either, so the fight against ISIS isn't affected by the ceasefire. ISIS attacked the YPG held town of Tall Abyad, with unconfirmed reports that the US carried out air strikes in aid of the YPG.

    Reports suggest it is much quieter though with no major attacks, and Russia has apparently stopped air strikes.

    There was some shelling taking place in Damascus, and there was a car bomb attack near Salamiyah in the run up to the truce (probably an ISIS attack). There was allegedly a clash in Latakia province between the government and an FSA affiliated group.

    We'll just have to see if it holds, and for how long. It seems the aim is to deliver aid to areas under siege, and to restart peace talks which have so far made no progress.
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    Well done Russia

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    (Original post by RF_PineMarten)
    It seems that the truce in Syria has largely taken hold among the groups that signed up to it.

    Islamist groups like Nusra have not signed up to it (I think Ahrar al Sham and some others aren't included either, but I'm not certain), so there is still some fighting, and some areas are not covered by the ceasefire. ISIS obviously isn't included either, so the fight against ISIS isn't affected by the ceasefire. ISIS attacked the YPG held town of Tall Abyad, with unconfirmed reports that the US carried out air strikes in aid of the YPG.

    Reports suggest it is much quieter though with no major attacks, and Russia has apparently stopped air strikes.

    There was some shelling taking place in Damascus, and there was a car bomb attack near Salamiyah in the run up to the truce (probably an ISIS attack). There was allegedly a clash in Latakia province between the government and an FSA affiliated group.

    We'll just have to see if it holds, and for how long. It seems the aim is to deliver aid to areas under siege, and to restart peace talks which have so far made no progress.
    I remember seeing somewhere that one of the biggest issues was that al Nusra was integrated into other groups, so an attack on al Nusra could cause something of a cascade effect.

    I have very little faith in this holding, I am somewhat surprised it even got off the ground. There are so many groups involved and Russia is very trigger happy, I can't imagine it'll be long before someone starts taking pot shots.

    I also wonder what Assad has to gain from any peace talks, surely his demands will be based around the complete surrender of all other groups? His position has been strengthen by Russia actions, he hardly has much to gain concessions.
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    (Original post by Aj12)
    I remember seeing somewhere that one of the biggest issues was that al Nusra was integrated into other groups, so an attack on al Nusra could cause something of a cascade effect.

    I have very little faith in this holding, I am somewhat surprised it even got off the ground. There are so many groups involved and Russia is very trigger happy, I can't imagine it'll be long before someone starts taking pot shots.

    I also wonder what Assad has to gain from any peace talks, surely his demands will be based around the complete surrender of all other groups? His position has been strengthen by Russia actions, he hardly has much to gain concessions.
    Yeah, Nusra tends to share territory with other rebels, and they move through rebel territory to the frontline, so it's hard to maintain a ceasefire. Knowing which group is present where on the front line can be a bit complicated.
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    apparently there are 97 separate groups involved in the ceasefire. extremely complicated.
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    (Original post by RF_PineMarten)
    It seems that the truce in Syria has largely taken hold among the groups that signed up to it.

    Islamist groups like Nusra have not signed up to it (I think Ahrar al Sham and some others aren't included either, but I'm not certain), so there is still some fighting, and some areas are not covered by the ceasefire. ISIS obviously isn't included either, so the fight against ISIS isn't affected by the ceasefire. ISIS attacked the YPG held town of Tall Abyad, with unconfirmed reports that the US carried out air strikes in aid of the YPG.

    Reports suggest it is much quieter though with no major attacks, and Russia has apparently stopped air strikes.

    There was some shelling taking place in Damascus, and there was a car bomb attack near Salamiyah in the run up to the truce (probably an ISIS attack). There was allegedly a clash in Latakia province between the government and an FSA affiliated group.

    We'll just have to see if it holds, and for how long. It seems the aim is to deliver aid to areas under siege, and to restart peace talks which have so far made no progress.
    This is a really complex situation and it will be interesting to see whether the ceasefire can hold long enough for decent peace talks to get underway and achieve a resolution to the conflict. It's pretty amazing that the peace deal has even gotten off the ground given the amount of different groups involved in the fighting. The Almanis crowd currently put the ceasefire at about an 82% chance to last till the end of the month, and about a 48% chance to last until midyear:
    https://app.almanis.com/#/outcomes/288
    https://app.almanis.com/#/outcomes/289
    If any of you guys are interested in this sort of question it would be great to see you around Almanis and don't hesitate to contact us if you need more info
 
 
 
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