Scotland, Who are you going to elect?

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Poll: Who would you elect if the Scottish Parliament Election was tomorrow?
SNP(Nicola Sturgeon) (12)
30%
Labour(Kezia Dugdale) (2)
5%
Conservative(Ruth Davidson) (15)
37.5%
Liberal Democrats(Willie Rennie#) (2)
5%
Greens(Patrick Harvie) (3)
7.5%
UKIP(David Coburn) (5)
12.5%
Other (1)
2.5%
LovepreetDhillon
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#1
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#1
If you are from Scotland and the election was tomorrow, who would you elect to run Holyrood? If you are not from Scotland who would you vote for if you was Scottish?
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Blondie987
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#2
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#2
Labour or Green
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Alex from almanis
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#3
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#3
Are the SNP overwhelming favourites for this election?
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Smack
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#4
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(Original post by Alex from almanis)
Are the SNP overwhelming favourites for this election?
Absolutely. That the SNP will win - and not just win, but probably secure more than double the vote of the second place party - is not in any real doubt. They have occupied the centre ground, which is where elections are won from, and so far manage to be all things to all people. They are the pro-independence party, which resonates with almost half of Scots.

The real, interesting, race is for second place. The Tories really could beat Labour into third place. In Scotland, a traditionally Labour stronghold. But the problem with the Tories is that although almost everyone seems to like Ruth Davidson, she is still a Tory, not something that goes down well in Scotland and even in last May's General Election, she could not stop the Conservatives losing yet more vote share in Scotland.

Labour's problem is that a huge amount of people who were traditional Labour supporters are now pro-independence, and put their pro-independence stance above whatever their own, personal politics are. Labour are really struggling for a place in Scottish politics at the moment.
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Alex from almanis
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(Original post by Smack)
Absolutely. That the SNP will win - and not just win, but probably secure more than double the vote of the second place party - is not in any real doubt. They have occupied the centre ground, which is where elections are won from, and so far manage to be all things to all people. They are the pro-independence party, which resonates with almost half of Scots.

The real, interesting, race is for second place. The Tories really could beat Labour into third place. In Scotland, a traditionally Labour stronghold. But the problem with the Tories is that although almost everyone seems to like Ruth Davidson, she is still a Tory, not something that goes down well in Scotland and even in last May's General Election, she could not stop the Conservatives losing yet more vote share in Scotland.

Labour's problem is that a huge amount of people who were traditional Labour supporters are now pro-independence, and put their pro-independence stance above whatever their own, personal politics are. Labour are really struggling for a place in Scottish politics at the moment.
Hmmm this is also an interesting case where preferential voting may be worthwhile, as it's kind of odd that a party with likely a touch less than 50% of the vote will dominate the parliament so much.
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Oliver_94
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#6
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#6
I really wish Scotland just had the balls to vote for independence so they can all **** off instead of being the annoying little kid in the UK. No one wants them in this union, they are useless
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Smack
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(Original post by Alex from almanis)
Hmmm this is also an interesting case where preferential voting may be worthwhile, as it's kind of odd that a party with likely a touch less than 50% of the vote will dominate the parliament so much.
They'll likely secure more than half of the seats, though.
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Alex from almanis
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(Original post by Smack)
They'll likely secure more than half of the seats, though.
Yeah our crowd believes there is about an 85% chance that they'll win more than 60 of the 73 seats: http://app.almanis.com/#/outcomes/195
But it's interesting that in many electorates a bit over a third of the vote could be enough to win
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AlmightyJesus
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#9
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#9
I have no clue why scottish people support the SNP so much
"huhhhh they've got the word "scottish" in their name...huhhhh I'm scottish...therefore, I should vote for them huhhhh"?
also, isn't it rich how scottish nationalism is great while english nationalism is considered racism?
if you had a party called "the english national party" they wouldn't be assumed to be a fluffy/cute party by any means
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meenu89
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Don't think it will happen but I would love just the Tories to beat Labour into third. That would be amazing.
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Blondie987
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(Original post by Alex from almanis)
Are the SNP overwhelming favourites for this election?
Far from it!
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ChaoticButterfly
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#12
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If you are a Scottish voter who was voting SNP because labour were "red tories" still votes SNP now that Labour have elected Corbyn you are a bloody traitor.
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Lacesso
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#13
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Unfortunately, SNP are great at getting out and getting support. Many people don't give a **** what they do, it's like a football team to them.
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username1862217
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#14
Fairly sure SNP stands for Secretly Not Politicians.
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L i b
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#15
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(Original post by Smack)
The real, interesting, race is for second place. The Tories really could beat Labour into third place. In Scotland, a traditionally Labour stronghold. But the problem with the Tories is that although almost everyone seems to like Ruth Davidson, she is still a Tory, not something that goes down well in Scotland and even in last May's General Election, she could not stop the Conservatives losing yet more vote share in Scotland.
In fairness, Scotland is traditionally a Tory stronghold too if you go back a couple of decades further. Labour's days in the political ascendency in Scotland is just as much in the past as the Tories'.

The vote share point is a bit irritating, given that it represented a significant increase in the number of votes, and was likely held back by significant tactical voting in certain seats - polling showed that Conservatives were by far the most likely to vote tactically for another pro-union party to keep the SNP out.
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Smack
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(Original post by ChaoticButterfly)
If you are a Scottish voter who was voting SNP because labour were "red tories" still votes SNP now that Labour have elected Corbyn you are a bloody traitor.
The Tories are the whipping boys of Scottish politics so insult works along that lines, but it's also a euphemism for "Unionist" and maybe even "English". But it is ironic coming from the SNP, who were even in a coalition with the Tories from 2007-11 in Holyrood. The SNP are closer to Tory politics than Labour, especially under Corbyn.

(Original post by L i b)
In fairness, Scotland is traditionally a Tory stronghold too if you go back a couple of decades further. Labour's days in the political ascendency in Scotland is just as much in the past as the Tories'.

The vote share point is a bit irritating, given that it represented a significant increase in the number of votes, and was likely held back by significant tactical voting in certain seats - polling showed that Conservatives were by far the most likely to vote tactically for another pro-union party to keep the SNP out.
We'll see how things go in May. I certainly think that Ruth Davidson and the Conservatives have a huge potential vote base out there by being the only main party willing to stick up for the pro-Union Scottish voters.
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ChaoticButterfly
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(Original post by Smack)
The Tories are the whipping boys of Scottish politics so insult works along that lines, but it's also a euphemism for "Unionist" and maybe even "English". But it is ironic coming from the SNP, who were even in a coalition with the Tories from 2007-11 in Holyrood. The SNP are closer to Tory politics than Labour, especially under Corbyn.
We did what you wanted and still you vote SNP ;'(
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L i b
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(Original post by ChaoticButterfly)
We did what you wanted and still you vote SNP ;'(
Far-left politics have never really appealed in Scotland.

The only time there's ever approached a far-left triumph in Scottish politics is Michael Foot - and even then, he got the lowest share of the vote for Labour since 1931, coming a not-very-distant first ahead of the fairly-evenly-split Tories and Alliance.

If anyone ever through attacking the SNP from the left would defeat them, they were deluded. The SNP is at its best in the centre-ground - doing exactly what the Liberals, Tories and Labour did when they dominated Scottish politics in their respective eras.

If anything, the leftward swing of Labour has undermined the Scottish party in several key areas of support that are still clinging on, the metropolitan middle class being most notable. In the sectarian-divided former heartlands they've seen their Catholic vote disappear to the SNP, and now seem determined to offend their Protestant voters by electing an IRA sympathiser. Kezia Dugdale is also in on it, going into an election pledging tax rises for people on pretty mediocre incomes and alienating her pro-union supporters in the vain hope of reaching out to some nationalist voters.
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deta18dy
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#19
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#19
Ive voted SNP since I was 18 and always will
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tengentoppa
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#20
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#20
(Original post by deta18dy)
Ive voted SNP since I was 18 and always will
This bullheaded partisan stance is sad to see. People should vote on the policies and vision of the party at that moment in time, not vote based on tribal allegiance.
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