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Just 8% of people think Osborne would be a good PM Watch

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    (Original post by jamestg)
    Hmm...

    While I think John Major's a great guy he was pretty sh*t.
    Even as an avid Tory-hater I find it hard to dislike major. Possibly because he always came across reasonable and his humble background.
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    (Original post by Bornblue)
    Even as an avid Tory-hater I find it hard to dislike major. Possibly because he always came across reasonable and his humble background.
    Agreed.

    Shame the Tories are happy to cut off their nose to spite their face. It's so frustrating seeing your own party get so engrossed on one issue.
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    Given how bad his position was in 2012 and how comfortable he looked at conference last Autumn, i think it would be a mistake to take this poll at face value. I'm a Gove man myself but i think it would a mistake to underestimate Osbourne.

    The real question is whether he bails out of the treasury for the foreign office (as is being speculated post referendum) and whether the public would view this as an act of weakness or not. He could in the foreign office end up recovering his position somewhat.

    Despite the focus on the EU and Boris-Osbourne i actually think that May is likely to do extremely well out of the whole situation and that's not a good thing for the parties long term success.
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    (Original post by Quantex)
    It's not like the other Conservative options touted as potential PMs are up to much.

    Thatcher would be rolling in her grave if she knew how poor her successors were.
    Personally i still maintain that Hague became leader 10-15 years too early. Had Hague not left parliament i would be voting for him without hesitation, he just oozes Prime Ministerial'ness.
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    (Original post by Rakas21)
    Given how bad his position was in 2012 and how comfortable he looked at conference last Autumn, i think it would be a mistake to take this poll at face value. I'm a Gove man myself but i think it would a mistake to underestimate Osbourne.

    The real question is whether he bails out of the treasury for the foreign office (as is being speculated post referendum) and whether the public would view this as an act of weakness or not. He could in the foreign office end up recovering his position somewhat.

    Despite the focus on the EU and Boris-Osbourne i actually think that May is likely to do extremely well out of the whole situation and that's not a good thing for the parties long term success.
    Who would you prefer, Osborne or Boris?
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    (Original post by Bornblue)
    Who would you prefer, Osborne or Boris?
    In the short term Boris has the charisma, in the long term Osbourne is much smarter strategically (Northern Powerhouse ect..

    I'm not thrilled with the choice but i'd marginally prefer Osbourne.
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    (Original post by Rakas21)
    Given how bad his position was in 2012 and how comfortable he looked at conference last Autumn, i think it would be a mistake to take this poll at face value. I'm a Gove man myself but i think it would a mistake to underestimate Osbourne.

    The real question is whether he bails out of the treasury for the foreign office (as is being speculated post referendum) and whether the public would view this as an act of weakness or not. He could in the foreign office end up recovering his position somewhat.

    Despite the focus on the EU and Boris-Osbourne i actually think that May is likely to do extremely well out of the whole situation and that's not a good thing for the parties long term success.
    You support gove? Your the first person I've met to support that man (I personally hate him).
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    (Original post by Rakas21)
    Personally i still maintain that Hague became leader 10-15 years too early. Had Hague not left parliament i would be voting for him without hesitation, he just oozes Prime Ministerial'ness.
    Another Tory that's difficult to dislike too much.
    He was up against Blair though who was at the time the most popular prime minister in history.

    As I said earlier, Major is the acceptable side of conservatism. Although I don't agree with him ideologically, I really do think he was 'one nation' and cared about those at the bottom rather than the token gestures and lip service we get from the Eton boys.

    Also like the Eton boys he didn't ooze smarm. In the debate about disability cuts yesterday Osborne was sat on his phone not paying attention, nicely summed up how much he cares.
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    (Original post by jamestg)
    Agreed.

    Shame the Tories are happy to cut off their nose to spite their face. It's so frustrating seeing your own party get so engrossed on one issue.
    Is your beef with Gideon more ideological or personal?
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    (Original post by Bornblue)
    Is your beef with Gideon more ideological or personal?
    He just doesn't strike me as a particularly charismatic or modern Tory, both of which are essential in having a Tory PM in the modern day.

    We need a DC v2, of which there are many to pick from. Someone who hasn't yet been tainted.
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    (Original post by jamestg)
    He just doesn't strike me as a particularly charismatic or modern Tory, both of which are essential in having a Tory PM in the modern day.

    We need a DC v2, of which there are many to pick from. Someone who hasn't yet been tainted.
    In fairness to Osbourne he's very modern socially, his failing here is that he's perceived as putting the budget before the populous.

    I like Gove myself but if we exclude the big 3 prospects then i can see Morgan and Javid being good prospects from the cabinet.

    The important thing in my mind is to keep out May (too traditional) and Boris (would win 2020 but probably be a mediocre PM given how indifferent his mayoralty has been and therefore lose 2025).
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    The latest Ipsos Mori poll has his ratings at minus 33, that's even more unpopular than corbyn.

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    (Original post by Rakas21)
    In fairness to Osbourne he's very modern socially, his failing here is that he's perceived as putting the budget before the populous.

    I like Gove myself but if we exclude the big 3 prospects then i can see Morgan and Javid being good prospects from the cabinet.

    The important thing in my mind is to keep out May (too traditional) and Boris (would win 2020 but probably be a mediocre PM given how indifferent his mayoralty has been and therefore lose 2025).
    I think Osborne missed a trick in not apologizing for the disability cuts.
    It would have made him look a lot more human and compassionate if he'd gone 'I am genuinely sorry, on reflection it was an ill thought out policy and we'll strive to make sure we don't make such mistakes again in the future'.

    Or something to that effect. Instead he kind of went 'yeah it was a mistake but so what? I'm right, Labour crashed the world economy etc...'

    It wasn't an apology, it was a half hearted admission that it was a mistake which came across far more as an 'i'm sorry I got caught' rather than a hint of genuine remorse.

    Bear in mind Osborne has lower approval ratings than Corbyn and Miliband.
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    8% too many.

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    Corbyn is more popular than Cameron.

    http://www.standard.co.uk/news/polit...-a3210916.html
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    (Original post by ChaoticButterfly)
    Corbyn is more popular than Cameron.

    http://www.standard.co.uk/news/polit...-a3210916.html
    Indeed.
    After 6 years the Tory narrative is beginning to wear thin. Osborne has lower approval ratings than Miliband had.

    And here's the great thing, all the traps he set for Labour, he's falling into himself. He made a big deal about the Fiscal Charter and Welfare cap but now that his disability cuts have been rebuffed he either will fail both or end up making unpopular cuts elsewhere, i.e Tory voters.

    And this is in the backdrop of a Tory party civil war which is about to get far worse with the issue of Europe and the leadership elections coming up.

    For the first time in six years you feel people are starting to question the austerity narrative. Tory councils are getting increasingly annoyed and they may well kick up a huge fuss when they try and turn every school into an academy.
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    (Original post by ChaoticButterfly)
    Corbyn is more popular than Cameron.

    http://www.standard.co.uk/news/polit...-a3210916.html
    It won't last, it's by 1% even in the middle of a mini crisis. I expect that Cameron will end his premiership comfortably with approval ratings of 40%+. (actually quite good for an outgoing PM and probably why he chose to go early).

    The real shocker and problem there is Osbourne on 27-60. Generally you can ignore the number of people who are against you but in a FPTP system your approval ratings must be 40%+ (what this poll says is that right now he's a hindrance to hopes of a good majority). Those numbers take a long time to change albeit chancellors are a bit at the whim of the economy for their ratings.

    (Original post by Bornblue)
    Indeed.
    After 6 years the Tory narrative is beginning to wear thin. Osborne has lower approval ratings than Miliband had.

    And here's the great thing, all the traps he set for Labour, he's falling into himself. He made a big deal about the Fiscal Charter and Welfare cap but now that his disability cuts have been rebuffed he either will fail both or end up making unpopular cuts elsewhere, i.e Tory voters.

    And this is in the backdrop of a Tory party civil war which is about to get far worse with the issue of Europe and the leadership elections coming up.

    For the first time in six years you feel people are starting to question the austerity narrative. Tory councils are getting increasingly annoyed and they may well kick up a huge fuss when they try and turn every school into an academy.
    All your first points are true but your final point is taking the wrong lessons from events. The lesson here (based on current polling) is not that people are suddenly getting anti-austerity (most people don't support either Osbourne's or Labour's approach - indifferent, don't know or support a middle ground) but rather that they may consider austerity (certainly this budget) to be carried out in an unfair manner. We saw similar after the 2012 budget when the Tories dropped the 50% rate.

    People don't really care about councils complaining. Approval for council services has actually increased.
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    (Original post by Rakas21)
    It won't last, it's by 1% even in the middle of a mini crisis. I expect that Cameron will end his premiership comfortably with approval ratings of 40%+. (actually quite good for an outgoing PM and probably why he chose to go early).

    The real shocker and problem there is Osbourne on 27-60. Generally you can ignore the number of people who are against you but in a FPTP system your approval ratings must be 40%+ (what this poll says is that right now he's a hindrance to hopes of a good majority). Those numbers take a long time to change albeit chancellors are a bit at the whim of the economy for their ratings.



    All your first points are true but your final point is taking the wrong lessons from events. The lesson here (based on current polling) is not that people are suddenly getting anti-austerity (most people don't support either Osbourne's or Labour's approach - indifferent, don't know or support a middle ground) but rather that they may consider austerity (certainly this budget) to be carried out in an unfair manner. We saw similar after the 2012 budget when the Tories dropped the 50% rate.

    People don't really care about councils complaining. Approval for council services has actually increased.
    Fair enough. I think while people have a degree of sympathy or support for cutting benefits from the 'work shy' or taking money off students, that cutting disabled people's income was simply awful and cruel. So much so that IDS and many other Tories couldn't stomach it.

    And the worst part is Osborne's indifference. He refused to apologize or even look sorry. In the debate on disability cuts he was sat on his phone, he literally could not care less. IDS was right, he's been so obsessed with meeting his own arbitrarily imposed, artificial targets that he's ignored the repercussions of his decisions.

    Now he has to choose between making more cuts where he doesn't want to, like wealthy pensioners or failing his own targets and admitting he can't run a surplus/ introduce a welfare cap. He's boxed himself in.

    I'm not pretending this is great for Labour, yet. Not with Corbyn at the helm. The Tories have for the moment patched it up but you can't help but feel the real civil war hasn't begun yet.
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    Some good commentary by Rakas as usual on the Conservative party.

    My view is Osborne will have an uphill struggle now to be PM. Not because of this poll but because recent events have shown he has enemies in the party. There have been a fair few people seemingly willing to brief against him to journalists, which is a bad sign, and this is what happened to Gordon Brown - he made enemies whilst being Chancellor and then when in Number 10 had people wanting to stick the knife in. There is also talk of an "anyone but Osborne" movement within the party and that is curtains for him, that is what killed off Hestletine and Portillo's chances of the leadership.

    Being Chancellor inevitably means saying no to Ministerial colleagues but there's a way to do that in a tactful and collegiate way (eg Ken Clarke). Osborne has his fingers in many pies and likes to dictate strategy to other departments. Other Secretaries of State will soon get annoyed if they sense their department's strategy is being shaped around Osborne's pet projects (that he will be willing to fund) more than theirs (where he will demand savings).

    The other big problem for Osborne (which Cameron shares too) is hubris with his thinking he is funny dropping in jokes and overbragging about how much he has achieved on the economy. This is a risky strategy because as soon as you are on the back foot about something (like Osborne found himself last week on PIP) you look like an obnoxious idiot.

    I think the next leader will be May or Johnson. Gove is a talent but he also has made a lot of enemies in the party and I'm not sure he can really reach out to a large section of the electorate, although he speaks very well.
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    I really don't like Osborne. He's a carbon copy of Cameron without the charisma. The last thing we need is another Europhilic, watered-down, pseudo-conservative as Prime Minister to give us yet another 5 years of monstrous mediocrity and lack of backbone on foreign affairs.
 
 
 
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