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Where the 2012 Olympics Cursed? Watch

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    From BBC:London Olympians who have died7 December 2012 Keitani Graham, Micronesian wrestler (heart attack)3 January 2013 Burry Stander, South African mountain biker (hit by vehicle while training)9 May 2013 Andrew Simpson, British sailor (sailing accident)15 June 2013 Elena Ivashchenko, Russian judoka (suicide)4 August 2013 Billy Ward, Australian boxer (suicide)16 August 2013 Abdelrahman el-Trabily, Egyptian wrestler (shot dead)19 October 2013 Jakkrit Panichpatikum, Thai shooter (shot dead)6 November 2013 Christian Lopez, Guatemalan weightlifter (pneumonia)29 December 2013 Besik Kudukhov, Russian wrestler (car accident)3 May 2014 Elena Baltacha, British tennis player (liver cancer)9 March 2015 Camille Muffat, French swimmer (helicopter crash)9 March 2015 Alexis Vastine, French boxer (helicopter crash)27 March 2015 Daundre Barnaby, Canadian 400m runner (missing at sea)25 June 2015 Trevor Moore, American sailor (missing at sea)October 2015 Yuliya Balykina, Belarusian sprinter (murdered)10 November 2015 Laurent Vidal, French triathlete (heart attack)10 December 2015 Arnold Peralta, Honduran soccer player (shot dead)3 March 2016 Sarah Tait, Australian rower (cervical cancer)If Curses can be proved, does that prove the existence of "something else"?
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    Considering over 10'000 athletes competed having less than twenty die in four years.

    Thats just normal, populate death rates.
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    (Original post by Three Mile Sprint)
    Considering over 10'000 athletes competed having less than twenty die in four years.

    Thats just normal, populate death rates.
    Weird that TRS felt this thread need to me moderated. I wonder what I have done.

    Was it the word "Cursed"?

    However, you are wrong. For YOUNG people its 15-20 in every 100,000.


    That is 1.5 per 10,000. 1.5 * 3.3 (years) = 7 or 10 people at most. This was 20 YOUNG people. Almost DOUBLE the amount you would expect (if you look at the chart the average is about 1.5 to 2.0):

    http://www.economist.com/blogs/graph...daily-chart-14

    (yes I know some come from more "difficult" areas - but one can generally assume an Olympic athlete will probably have either have the equivalent of a western middle class upbringing or actually live in the west)
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    Why not quote the closing paragraphs from the BBC article you selectively used?

    Is there a London 2012 Olympics 'curse'? - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-36055238

    Quote:
    It sounds like a lot - 18 young athletes dying in four years - but is it really, when you consider that 10,568 people took part in the Games?

    Based on crude mortality rates "you would expect 7.89 people in 1,000 to die," says Rob Mastrodomenico, a sports statistician at Global Sports Statistics.

    So in a group of 10,568 people one could expect about 333 to die over a four-year period, he says.

    However, Olympic athletes are young - they have an average age of 26. Taking this into account, we should expect approximately seven deaths a year, says Mastrodomenico, or 28 deaths in four years.

    So the figure of 18 deaths over four years does not seem quite so out of the ordinary - and definitely not the sign of a "curse".






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    (Original post by jneill)
    Why not quote the closing paragraphs from the BBC article you selectively used?

    Is there a London 2012 Olympics 'curse'? - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-36055238

    Quote:
    It sounds like a lot - 18 young athletes dying in four years - but is it really, when you consider that 10,568 people took part in the Games?

    Based on crude mortality rates "you would expect 7.89 people in 1,000 to die," says Rob Mastrodomenico, a sports statistician at Global Sports Statistics.

    So in a group of 10,568 people one could expect about 333 to die over a four-year period, he says.

    However, Olympic athletes are young - they have an average age of 26. Taking this into account, we should expect approximately seven deaths a year, says Mastrodomenico, or 28 deaths in four years.

    So the figure of 18 deaths over four years does not seem quite so out of the ordinary - and definitely not the sign of a "curse".


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    The economist stats say different.
    I'd rather rely on the economist for stats than the BBC.
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    (Original post by FredOrJohn)
    The economist stats say different.
    I'd rather rely on the economist for stats than the BBC.
    Okay John Wittingdale
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    (Original post by FredOrJohn)
    The economist stats say different.
    I'd rather rely on the economist for stats than the BBC.
    Even going by your Economist chart the average is approx 34/100,000 not 15. So that's 3.4 * 4 years = 13.6 which is not hugely different to 18. Especially given that many of the deceased are from countries not included in that analysis and likely to have relatively high death rates (Russia, Egypt, Honduras, Belarus, etc).

    Again: there's no curse.
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    I don't think so. Especially when you consider those who were murdered or died in road or boating accidents.

    What it highlights to me is the level of young people who commit suicide and the more we can provide support to prevent it, the better.
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    (Original post by jneill)
    Even going by your Economist chart the average is approx 34/100,000 not 15. So that's 3.4 * 4 years = 13.6 which is not hugely different to 18. Especially given that many of the deceased are from countries not included in that analysis and likely to have relatively high death rates (Russia, Egypt, Honduras, Belarus, etc).

    Again: there's no curse.
    I think its telling that the BBC did not do the obvious thing and compare the deaths after 2012 to the deaths after other Olympics (ps if there is something odd about the stats I'd say the nation with the largest team - the Chinese, had no deaths).

    If you are going to do a story do the OBVIOUS thing otherwise people will definitely think there is something you're hiding.
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    (Original post by FredOrJohn)
    I think its telling that the BBC did not do the obvious thing and compare the deaths after 2012 to the deaths after other Olympics (ps if there is something odd about the stats I'd say the nation with the largest team - the Chinese, had no deaths).

    If you are going to do a story do the OBVIOUS thing otherwise people will definitely think there is something you're hiding.
    Go on then, if it bothers you so much, do the "obvious" thing of analysing all reported deaths of Olympic athletes and matching them to specific Olympic cycles. Might take, oh a couple of weeks, to source all the info assuming you have access to global media libraries.

    Or you could do the easier thing which is to simply compare the count against an appropriate mortality benchmark. Oh wait...

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    (Original post by jneill)
    Go on then, if it bothers you so much, do the "obvious" thing of analysing all reported deaths of Olympic athletes and matching them to specific Olympic cycles. Might take, oh a couple of weeks, to source all the info assuming you have access to global media libraries.

    Or you could do the easier thing which is to simply compare the count against an appropriate mortality benchmark. Oh wait...

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    There is no "appropriate mortality benchmark" for international sports people.... But if the BBC could work out the deaths after 2012 they could have done the same process for Beijing - it would have been the obvious comparison. But as you say I'm not journalist.... But do I trust the press ? Not one iota.
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    (Original post by FredOrJohn)
    There is no "appropriate mortality benchmark" for international sports people.... But if the BBC could work out the deaths after 2012 they could have done the same process for Beijing - it would have been the obvious comparison. But as you say I'm not journalist.... But do I trust the press ? Not one iota.
    They didn't. It was the media in France who raised this whole "curse" thing. The BBC article merely quotes the French media (and their list of deaths) and added an expert view. That. There. Is. No. Curse.

    Also the The Sun ran it in November 2015 - in rather more typical style.
    http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage...ndon-2012.html

    By the way, what has this thread got to do with Religion?
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    (Original post by jneill)
    They didn't. It was the media in France who raised this whole "curse" thing. The BBC article merely quotes the French media (and their list of deaths) and added an expert view. That. There. Is. No. Curse.

    Also the The Sun ran it in November 2015 - in rather more typical style.
    http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage...ndon-2012.html

    By the way, what has this thread got to do with Religion?
    Is a curse a religious act or not?
    The French Media is still the media
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    (Original post by FredOrJohn)
    Is a curse a religious act or not?
    The French Media is still the media
    Oh I see so if there was a curse it is a religious thing.

    But if there was no curse (which there wasn't) then what?
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    (Original post by jneill)
    Oh I see so if there was a curse it is a religious thing.

    But if there was no curse (which there wasn't) then what?
    Either way its religious as the topic was "curse".
    I don't think you can say "wasn't" unless the French Article comes up with further info.
    From the facts available I'd say "probably not" but I'd like to see post Chinese figures...
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    (Original post by FredOrJohn)
    Weird that TRS felt this thread need to me moderated. I wonder what I have done.

    Was it the word "Cursed"?

    However, you are wrong. For YOUNG people its 15-20 in every 100,000.


    That is 1.5 per 10,000. 1.5 * 3.3 (years) = 7 or 10 people at most. This was 20 YOUNG people. Almost DOUBLE the amount you would expect (if you look at the chart the average is about 1.5 to 2.0):

    http://www.economist.com/blogs/graph...daily-chart-14

    (yes I know some come from more "difficult" areas - but one can generally assume an Olympic athlete will probably have either have the equivalent of a western middle class upbringing or actually live in the west)
    Is it being moderated?

    Double the amount still ins't unprecedented or strangely unusual.
 
 
 
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