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Post-Election Discussion Thread - April 2016 watch

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    The Official Declaration of Results

    TSR Conservative Party - 13 (N/A)
    TSR Labour Party - 12 (-2)
    TSR Liberal Party - 8 (-1)
    TSR UKIP - 7 (-1)
    TSR Socialist Party - 5 (+3)
    TSR Green Party - 4 (N/A)
    TSR National Liberal Party - 1 (+1)

    Total Votes Cast: 185


    So what happens now?


    Parties have 7 days to sort out their MPs and form coalitions. I need MP lists from the party leaders as soon as possible - no-one will be admitted to the MP usergroup until I have a full list from each party leader. You have until 9:30pm on the 26th April to form coalitions. Please confirm your MP lists and coalition proposals by private messaging both myself and toronto353. For your reference, the rules on coalitions and governments are as per the Constitution.

    6.1.is formed by the party or coalition with the most seats. In the event of a tie in the number of seats, which party or coalition forms the Government shall be decided by, in order (moving to the next one if tied), the highest number of votes in the preceding election, the lowest number of parties in the coalition, the highest number of seats in a single party in a coalition, and the highest number of votes in a single party in a coalition. If these are all equal, there is no government.

    6.2.shall form as per by the Guidance Document.

    Election Results Analysis

    This general election was dramatic for several reasons. Firstly, the TSR Conservative and Unionist Party won a plurality of the vote for the first time since October 2010 (Parliament XII), edging out the TSR Labour Party by just a single vote. Using the D'hondt Method this single vote translated into a whole extra seat for Conservatives. Likewise, the TSR Socialist Party gained one more seat than the TSR Green Party despite gaining only one more vote. This was also the first general election in which the TSR National Liberal Party participated. Although they performed quite well in the recent by-election they were only able to translate this into 1 seat having gained 3.24% of the vote. The election proved bruising for the government parties though the TSR Liberals 8 seats is still their second highest result since the Parliament XI. The TSR Socialists saw the most impressive gains, pulling them out of an electoral slump. Although TSR UKIP lost a seat for the first time in this election, they still won their second largest number of seats (7).

    The exclusion of a 'mass PM' to attract voters to the election thread did not seem to have as great an impact on the result as had been predicted by some. For example, after the previous election the data seemed to show a substantial boost to Labour post-pm however in this election Labour gained more votes towards the start of the week. Generally parties gained votes more steadily steadily than in the previous election - presumably a result of the absence of the PM. However, once ineligible voters were removed the turnout was 185 which, though low, is a very fair turnout given the lack of promotion. Speaker Birchington noted in the analysis for the last general election that despite both a mass pm and a side bar link the turnout (239) was very low. This raises questions on how we can more effectively promote the MHoC - something we must consider during the coming term.

    Most interesting was the impact of correcting the results (such that only those cast by users with more than 3 months on TSR and 100+ posts were counted). The exit poll was accurate for the Conservatives, National Liberals and UKIP but predicted a better result for Labour and worse results for the Liberals and Socialists. Indeed, Labour lost proportionally more votes from correction than any other party (51.1%) whilst the Liberals lost the least (24.3%) which gives an interesting insight into the structure of the respective parties' voter-base.

    Postal voting did not play a significant role in this election, with only two votes cast this way. The proportion of voters who chose to spoil their ballot was even smaller than last election and, like last election, there were no independent candidates. This might be due to the inclusion of a 7th party. Regardless, both of these factors will have protected parties from vote splitting and one imagines that the next general election that includes independents will result in very different trends to the ones that are developing.

    Below shows the progression of raw votes as the week progressed (figures taken between 8pm and 10pm) culminating in the corrected, official result that was released on Tuesday.

    Screen Shot 2016-04-20 at 20.46.18.png


    Thus concludes our analysis for the April 2016 election. Here's to a fantastic Parliament XXIII!

    Best wishes,

    Ray
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    I thank Mr Speaker for advising us of the outcome.

    A lot of ineligible votes seem to have been removed.
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    We lost 2 seats! I would once again like to congratulate the Socialists - an incredible result.
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    Congratulations to all parties who made gains, and commiserations to those who lost seats.
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    Conservative government time. Also the changes are inaccurate as they don't consider the by election results.
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    :woo:
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    I'm glad to see the socialist rebound this election and I'm glad that they have a larger voice.
    Coalitions will be interesting.
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    (Original post by Jammy Duel)
    Conservative government time. Also the changes are inaccurate as they don't consider the by election results.
    They never do because there isn't much of a point in doing so.
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    (Original post by Aph)
    They never do because there isn't much of a point in doing so.
    Then there is no point in showing the changes at all.
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    Interesting :holmes:
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    Mr Speaker, can we ask if you can provide us the number of votes removed
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    (Original post by Jammy Duel)
    Then there is no point in showing the changes at all.
    The changes are from the last General Election. I think seeing how the electorate voted differently is more interesting and valuable.
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    (Original post by Jammy Duel)
    Then there is no point in showing the changes at all.
    The changes in the RL GE are always shown compared to that last election.
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    (Original post by Jammy Duel)
    Conservative government time. Also the changes are inaccurate as they don't consider the by election results.
    :afraid::shot:
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    (Original post by adam9317)
    Mr Speaker, can we ask if you can provide us the number of votes removed
    I will include that in a simple bit of analysis I'm going to throw together however I can tell you that there were 319 votes (317 + 2 postal) of which all but 185 were removed.
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    (Original post by adam9317)
    Mr Speaker, can we ask if you can provide us the number of votes removed
    Just look at the ge thread itself
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    By my calculations, give or take 1 vote [Real votes]

    Showing some parties lost a lot more than others, from the exit poll

    TSR Conservative Party - 13 (N/A) 48 votes
    TSR Labour Party - 12 (-2) 44 votes
    TSR Liberal Party - 8 (-1) 30 votes
    TSR UKIP - 7 (-1) 26 votes
    TSR Socialist Party - 5 (+3) 19 votes
    TSR Green Party - 4 (N/A) 15 votes
    TSR National Liberal Party - 1 (+1) 4 votes
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    Well I'm fairly content with 8 seats. It would have been nice to retain 9, but last election was an extraordinary result for us and it's good to see us once again retain third place.

    Now I wait for the PMs to roll in...
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    Huzzah! First Conservative win after who knows how many elections! I'm proud to be the Conservative leader and thank my colleagues for their effort! I take this victory as a good omen for the times to come.
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    (Original post by Quamquam123)
    We lost 2 seats! I would once again like to congratulate the Socialists - an incredible result.
    (Original post by Aph)
    I'm glad to see the socialist rebound this election and I'm glad that they have a larger voice.
    Coalitions will be interesting.
    I am ecstatic that we've got not 4, but FIVE seats! That makes us a force to be truly reckoned with in this Parliament.
    LabLibSoc government sounds good...
 
 
 
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