Local elections-results and thoughts

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Davij038
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LabourConsLib DemUkipNOCCouncils41202017▼-1000▲+1Councillors77947017328 –¼-24â–²+5â–²+8â–²+20NOC = No Overall Control




So as I understand it, labour suffered hugely in Scotland, did slightly poorly in Wales and a bit better than expected in England.

The Tories are now the official opposition to the SNP in Scotland and have otherwise held their ground.

The SNP have cemented their position but have lost their majority to the insurgent Tories

The lib dems are slowly rebuilding and made modest gains in Scotland and came close in Cardiff

Ukip have done well in Wales, as have Plaid Cymru


Thoughts

Labour is in a dire position in Scotland- and its attempt to outflank the SNP from the left has failed. I'm not sure how they can win it back TBH. London is going to be the key litmnus test for Corbyn, if as predicted he wins London i don't think there is much evidence that he's a vote loser (Still think he should go).

The Cons have done well, in particular Ruth Davidson's modern tory image seems to be popular in Scotland.; Politics in Scotland seems to be along unionist and nationalist sympathies now- labours balancing act has failed.
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gladders
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I'm surprised at Scotland the most. I know people were predicting the Tories were set to overtake Labour but I had no idea the Labour vote would implode like that. I'm even more surprised the SNP has - only just, mind - lost its majority. The SNP remain a force to be reckoned with but it can only be seen as a disappointment to them. Ruth Davidson seems to be an effective and genuinely likable person and won't take this success for granted.

Really think that the Scottish result busts the idea that Labour has to win from the left.

England's a bit of a mixed bag all round for all parties, I think because nobody really feels much confidence in any of them right now. The accusations of racism and anti-semitism don't seem to have made much impression on Labour's results.

No idea about London yet - any idea when the result will be called?
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Serine Soul
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Over 2000 votes for Labour in my area, and something over 200 each for Lib Dems and Conservatives

Pretty obvious that this would happen of course
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Davij038
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(Original post by gladders)
I'm surprised at Scotland the most. I know people were predicting the Tories were set to overtake Labour but I had no idea the Labour vote would implode like that. I'm even more surprised the SNP has - only just, mind - lost its majority. The SNP remain a force to be reckoned with but it can only be seen as a disappointment to them. Ruth Davidson seems to be an effective and genuinely likable person and won't take this success for granted.

Really think that the Scottish result busts the idea that Labour has to win from the left.

England's a bit of a mixed bag all round for all parties, I think because nobody really feels much confidence in any of them right now. The accusations of racism and anti-semitism don't seem to have made much impression on Labour's results.

No idea about London yet - any idea when the result will be called?
According to the BBC we should get London results at five today.


On the one hand, labour did better than predicted in the South East and I don't know what they could have done in Scotland. Yet, the reality is this is the worst result for an opposition leader in a hundred years.
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stoltguyboo
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Jeremy Corbyn....is just bananas.
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stevey396
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Great to see the Tories claim second in Scotland, and UKIP winning seats in Wales! Fantastic.

The Labour party is done. By 2020 they'll be third behind UKIP.
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Smack
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(Original post by gladders)
I'm surprised at Scotland the most. I know people were predicting the Tories were set to overtake Labour but I had no idea the Labour vote would implode like that. I'm even more surprised the SNP has - only just, mind - lost its majority. The SNP remain a force to be reckoned with but it can only be seen as a disappointment to them. Ruth Davidson seems to be an effective and genuinely likable person and won't take this success for granted.
Me too. I anticipated a slightly higher overall SNP majority with the Tories neck-in-neck with Labour, with there being a real possibility of them just pulling ahead.

It will be interesting to see how the SNP react to the loss of their majority. They still won the election outright, and are still the largest party by some distance, but was yesterday a sign that a lot of people thought they were getting too big for their boots? Ignoring the actual governing thing and focusing too much on the constitutional issue? Will the SNP be wondering whether this was just a blip, or whether they reached their zenith last year? And how does this affect the mandate for another independence referendum?
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gladders
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(Original post by Smack)
Me too. I anticipated a slightly higher overall SNP majority with the Tories neck-in-neck with Labour, with there being a real possibility of them just pulling ahead.

It will be interesting to see how the SNP react to the loss of their majority. They still won the election outright, and are still the largest party by some distance, but was yesterday a sign that a lot of people thought they were getting too big for their boots? Ignoring the actual governing thing and focusing too much on the constitutional issue? Will the SNP be wondering whether this was just a blip, or whether they reached their zenith last year? And how does this affect the mandate for another independence referendum?
Indeed. My inkling is that it will knock their sails for a spell - they may have been perceived as feeling they deserved a majority by right - and that their mandate for a second referendum is undermined somewhat.
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SausageMan
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(Original post by Smack)
Me too. I anticipated a slightly higher overall SNP majority with the Tories neck-in-neck with Labour, with there being a real possibility of them just pulling ahead.

It will be interesting to see how the SNP react to the loss of their majority. They still won the election outright, and are still the largest party by some distance, but was yesterday a sign that a lot of people thought they were getting too big for their boots? Ignoring the actual governing thing and focusing too much on the constitutional issue? Will the SNP be wondering whether this was just a blip, or whether they reached their zenith last year? And how does this affect the mandate for another independence referendum?
You were expecting the SNP to break the D'Hont system twice to gain a majority? When the Scottish Parlaiment voting system is not meant to achieve an outright majority, hence the 'rainbow parliament' in 2007.

Independence is not a one party issue and there are more pro-independent MSP's than pro-Union MSP's in the Scottish Parlaiment, this would provide a mandate if the UK were to leave the EU.
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Josb
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That won't help Corbyn to deal with the opposition in his party.
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Little Popcorns
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Labour clearly didn't really bother pushing for much in Scotland at this election on account of the SNP's success at the last. Sadly for Scotland this meant the Tories have overtaken Labour in what is a traditionally left wing region, but there is one way this could work in Labour's favour before the next general... The Tories encroaching may scare what are a vast majority of left wing voters in Scotland hopefully leading to them being shoved back out when it matters.
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JamesN88
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(Original post by Little Popcorns)
Labour clearly didn't really bother pushing for much in Scotland at this election on account of the SNP's success at the last. Sadly for Scotland this meant the Tories have overtaken Labour in what is a traditionally left wing region, but there is one way this could work in Labour's favour before the next general... The Tories encroaching may scare what are a vast majority of left wing voters in Scotland hopefully leading to them being shoved back out when it matters.
It's still a Left-Wing region, people just voted more for a different Left-Wing party. The reason Labour collapsed North of the border is because they teamed up with the Tories during the referendum.
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username878267
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Scotland is now unionist v nationalist rather than left v right.
Awful for labour in Scotland, okayish in England and Wales and good in London.

Nothing to suggest Corbyn can become PM though.
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Little Popcorns
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(Original post by JamesN88)
It's still a Left-Wing region, people just voted more for a different Left-Wing party. The reason Labour collapsed North of the border is because they teamed up with the Tories during the referendum.
Didn't say it wasnt still a left wing region and year the referendum really has muddied the waters a bit with this election
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frackme
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Apparently even if the other parties vote against snp the snp win by 1 and in list votes snp got well over 1million votes for 1st time ever, the snp still rule as a majority even through they were 2 short, and if indy ref 2 was called it would happen as snp still cant be outvoted by the other parties
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Smack
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(Original post by SausageMan)
You were expecting the SNP to break the D'Hont system twice to gain a majority? When the Scottish Parlaiment voting system is not meant to achieve an outright majority, hence the 'rainbow parliament' in 2007.
Yes. As the post you quoted explains, I anticipated that the SNP would increase their majority. I will expound: I expected them to sweep Glasgow, which they did, but also hold onto their seats elsewhere in Edinburgh and Aberdeenshire, where they incurred a few losses. Had they not taken those losses, they would have been in the low 70s, where I anticipated.

Independence is not a one party issue and there are more pro-independent MSP's than pro-Union MSP's in the Scottish Parlaiment, this would provide a mandate if the UK were to leave the EU.
Actually, given that none of the parties in Holyrood have the power to hold an independence referendum there can be no mandate for such a thing. Although, in the event of Brexit, I am beginning to wonder if even the SNP would be as audacious to hold an independence referendum with the argument that we are better off in the EU as opposed to the UK.
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Rakas21
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My opinion..

Scotland - The SNP held power with an increased vote share but less than the 50% at the general election last year. A fabulous night for the Tories who now take the mantle of being the official opposition. A look at the electoral map shows the border completely sown up.

Wales - It's hard to take much from the results since Ukip were a big spoiler here distorting vote shares. At any rate Labour lost more votes albeit i'd probably ignore all the welsh election as any kind of indicator.

NI - Results still coming in but it looks like the DUP have gained.

England - Not a good night for either the Tories or Labour however Ukip and the Libs will be pleased. For the Tories they've gained little ground vs 2012 which was a low ebb. For Labour, they've beaten the Tories on vote share but actually gained no votes, lost seats (worst opposition results since 85) and have only redeemed themselves in London. Any Corbyn fans who try to defend this result are completely mad and have not learnt their lesson (31% is not an election winning percentage).
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Rakas21
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(Original post by frackme)
Apparently even if the other parties vote against snp the snp win by 1 and in list votes snp got well over 1million votes for 1st time ever, the snp still rule as a majority even through they were 2 short, and if indy ref 2 was called it would happen as snp still cant be outvoted by the other parties
The SNP are 2 short of a majority so explicitly they can be outvoted (though the Greens can carry them over).
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username878267
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(Original post by Rakas21)
My opinion..

Scotland - The SNP held power with an increased vote share but less than the 50% at the general election last year. A fabulous night for the Tories who now take the mantle of being the official opposition. A look at the electoral map shows the border completely sown up.

Wales - It's hard to take much from the results since Ukip were a big spoiler here distorting vote shares. At any rate Labour lost more votes albeit i'd probably ignore all the welsh election as any kind of indicator.

NI - Results still coming in but it looks like the DUP have gained.

England - Not a good night for either the Tories or Labour however Ukip and the Libs will be pleased. For the Tories they've gained little ground vs 2012 which was a low ebb. For Labour, they've beaten the Tories on vote share but actually gained no votes, lost seats (worst opposition results since 85) and have only redeemed themselves in London. Any Corbyn fans who try to defend this result are completely mad and have not learnt their lesson (31% is not an election winning percentage).
Ruth Davidson is brilliant, the opposite of a toxic Tory and someone who I could imagine getting swing voters.

Should get her more involved in the English party.
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frackme
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[QUOTE=Rakas21;64629401]The SNP are 2 short of a majority so explicitly they can be outvoted (though the Greens can carry them over).[/QUOTE]

They would indeed. Looks like it isn't all over at all. Davidson's life will be short lived, can't see Scotland ever allowing a tory to become FM.
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