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Will China ever win the World Cup? Watch

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    In light of the article that just appeared on the BBC taking yet another look at the rapid rise of the Chinese league and the future of the sport in the country (Clicky Clicky) I figured I'd see what the football lot here thought about it. I've been having an argument with a few friends for a while because I think it's possible within the next 30 to 40 years and they all say it won't ever be done.

    My attitude is simply based on numbers. If we take it to an ultra simplistic level and say that the national team is made up of players from a 10 year window, that means that every 10 years we need to produce 25 world class players.

    So over the next 10 years both England and China have to produce 25 top quality players for their national team.

    Looking at it as a purely numerical approach, in England we have approximately 700,000 babies born each year, going by our 50/50 gender split that means that over a 10 year window there are 3,500,000 boys born and from that group we need to find our 25 players. So 1 out of every 140,000 of those kids has to end up being a world class footballer.

    In China there are approximately 16,000,000 kids born each year, going by their roughly 55/45 gender split that gives us 88,000,000 boys being born in that 10 year window. So in China 1 out of every 3,500,000 kids has to turn out to be a world class footballer.

    While they don't have much of a footballing culture at the moment they are a nation that has shown itself to be incredibly effective at manufacturing talent in other sports, training kids in a chosen sport from the day they can walk more of less guaranteeing that if a kid has a talent it will be found and they will reach the peak of their sport.

    Personally I see no way that with the amount of investment that the Chinese government is throwing at Football, when you add in the sheer volume of potential stars and the rapidly improving quality of their own national league that China can fail to brute force their way to being a world class footballing nation.

    So, come on then, let's hear your opinions. I'm expecting you all to tell me I'm wrong but I'm pretty much used to that!
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    USA has taken "soccer" seriously for 10 years or so now and they aren't exactly going places
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    No, and neither will the USA. Sick of hearing about how the Yanks are supposedly going to win the 2018/2022/2026/2030 world cup.
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    (Original post by sr90)
    USA has taken "soccer" seriously for 10 years or so now and they aren't exactly going places
    But China has three things that the USA doesn't.

    1) A billion more people.
    2) A sporting system that has existed for decades with the sole purpose of maximising the talent of the nations youth in a variety of sports.
    3) A government that has no problem at all with having children from a very young age being sent to sports training facilities where their entire life is focussed on their sport with no outside distractions.
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    (Original post by sr90)
    USA has taken "soccer" seriously for 10 years or so now and they aren't exactly going places
    Ehh, they've done well the last 2 World Cups


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    They've got about the same chance as Sunderland winning the Champion's League.
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    I think big Countries such as China and USA will get to European or South American standards in 50 or so years
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    (Original post by Jimmy Seville)
    No, and neither will the USA. Sick of hearing about how the Yanks are supposedly going to win the 2018/2022/2026/2030 world cup.
    The two nations aren't even remotely comparable though.

    The USA hasn't bothered to do anything to really advance the game. Youngsters still play in the same local leagues that they used to, the standard of coaching in the High School and College game has remained almost entirely unchanged. They banged on about how they were going to win the world cup soon but have done nothing to actually improve the standard of the game within their country.

    On the other hand if the Chinese government decides to really pursue football then there's no reason to think that they won't implement a system like they have with sports such as Diving. Where kids who show any potential at 3/4/5 years of age are sent away to training camps where they train almost every day for the next decade or until they are deemed not talented enough.

    America relies on kids discovering for themselves that they're talented and then has to hope that they don't get distracted and choose not to pursue football.

    China if they really push things will find the talented kids, they won't rely on the occasional child to find a talent themselves, they will test and train hundreds of thousands of children to find the ones with talent and once they're in the system they don't get to have distractions or pursue another path unless they are let go from the system.
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    If they want to. They will.

    No real question to be honest - if they decide its what they want, then its just a matter of time (50 years or so mind you... it will take a minimum of a few generations)

    Any comparisons to america are not really that relivant. American football is not hugely state backed, and the league is largely backed by private buisness.

    In china its different, large buisness have a huge state influence within them, and the goverment is pushing football heavily. Look at other sports, china can be ruthless if they want to be. They dont give a ****. Kids who dont have a life and just play football? ruthless training reigems etc. it would all hapen if they wanted it.

    The only limmit is physicallity, chinese being on average smaller/less physical then other races, but that is negated by their sheer number, giving enough people who are of an apropriate physicallity.

    It will take minimum 2-3 generations, but if they stay focused on it, then there is no question with so many people, so much money, and such a single focused goverment.

    ---

    However, My biggest problem is: they will stop wanting to.

    I feel they will push football for now, but they wont maintain it enough to truely be the best. The chinese economy is already slowing, and as things become tough, football wont be anywhere near a priority of the chinese goverment.. without the goverment pushing it, it will fall away, as it just does not have enough cultrual importance to grow so fast without the goverment pushing it. Its a long way behind basketball, table tennis, tennis, badminton..

    ---

    Overall, I would not put my money on them winning a world-cup in my lifetime, but I would put a hell of a lot of money on them hosting a world cup pretty soon...
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    It is absoloutely inevitable China will win the world cup providing football is allowed to grow there and it becomes popular

    Pointing at the USA as an example of why they wont is dumb. USA doesnt take soccer seriously...its a million miles behind hand egg, hoops and even rounders over there
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    Before China win the World Cup, I can see one of their clubs beating a European giant to win the Club World Cup. (E.g. Jiangsu beating Real Madrid)
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    If the Chinese government want something to work and they've put their own finances into it, then it will to some degree. I think it will help the domestic league in the short-term and that's been shown by the big money transfers that have taken place, but I'd question long-term success if the government don't see the results they want to see, with the money they've invested, for them to pull the plug and football in China goes further back. If they qualify for a WC, that'd be an achievement, never mind going all the way to win it!
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    A Chinese player becoming a star player for a huge club would go some way to help the popularity.
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    Problem for USA is football is behind 3 other sports that it won't overtake anytime soon.
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    I don't see why not. Any country big enough could, and most countries are improving in a sense, naturally given time and funding and effort.

    First China need to aim to qualify regularly. It's a very, very long process. You can look at the USA, who have improved drastically. Now they qualify regularly and are competitive. If and when they take the next step and start reaching quarters and semis is another big push.

    Really all countries have improved. In the above sense, England are at the same level as USA, and despite England never beating USA in a competitive fixture and both times they were in the same group ending on the exact same points, such a claim will be contested. The reason for the protests will be the same as the reason England don't improve - because there's a feeling of entitlement that England are just a big country/team. Why are they? Because they are! Never mind a record of regular qualification failures and group exits that show otherwise, they're one of the big countries that should be challenging for the final!
 
 
 
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