Generation Rent should vote BREXIT. Watch

username2553161
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http://www.theguardian.com/politics/...-eu-referendum

See video of Osborne declaring house prices will [FINALLY] fall.....if we Brexit.

So how much should the average house price cost?

UNDER 80 GRAND...... Thats how much the national average house price should cost today.
The individual national average wage was always able to buy the averagely priced house, all throughout the 1950's, 1960's, 1970's, 1980's and 1990's.

For no more than 3.5x individual income.[Thats the long term median. On a couple of occasions it touched 5x salary, but went back down again quickly enough. At the end of the eighties memorably. At other times, it was just 2.5x individual salary. What my parent paid in the sixties]

The average mortgate rate over that same period was 7%.Average Downpayment was 10%

That was the definition of affordability for the last half of the twentieth century.

[In 1997 the national average house price was £55k.The national average wage was £16,666 .
55K/16,666 = 3.3x......So In 1997 it was 3.3x individual salary.]

So If the priced out generations today were able to buy a house, relative to the same levels of affordability vs earnings that previous generations enjoyed, then the national UK Average House Price today, would cost no more than 3.5x the national averge individual wage of £26.5k
26.5 x 3.5 = £79.5kUNDER 80 GRAND.....

Yet according to the ONS the national average house price today is over 250 Grand!

In 1996 the amount of take home salary that a first time buyer would spend on their mortgage was 17.5%, but by 2008 this had risen to 49.3%.In London the take home salary that a First Time Buyer would spend on their mortgage, rose from 22.2% in 1997 to 66.6% in 2008


So, do you believe that house prices will fall from their stupendously ridiculous levels if we Brexit?
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mojojojo101
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(Original post by Rover73)
So, do you believe that house prices will fall from their stupendously ridiculous levels if we Brexit?
Absolutely not.

The lack of housing is due to the UK governments inability to build new housing, especially housing that is affordable (their definition of that word is ridiculous) as well as the infrastructure necessary to deal with an increased level of strain on services.

I also question the Conservatives (any other parties) motivations to really deal with the crisis when the investment returns are so massive. If the government acts to bring down prices to an even vaguely sane degree then that investment will surely evaporate and their economic figures start looking significantly worse.
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username2553161
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Well, the housing crisis was worldwide. Not uk specific. In fact it was a credit crisis started by central banks. Boom and Bust is the banking model after all. [Or boom and gun against governments head, followed by a bailout or else] The bust has not occured, and that is mainly due to the fact that we have our own sovereign pound, [rather than the euro] and therefore can kick the can down the road indefinitely.
Brexit will cause the MPC of the BOE to raise rates.

And I realy hope that happens for my parents, pensioners, [and savers] who worked very hard all their lives, and are seeing their savings diminish really drastically due to low IR

We punish the prudent and reward the feckless. It has to STOP
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M14B
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(Original post by mojojojo101)
Absolutely not.

The lack of housing is due to the UK governments inability to build new housing, especially housing that is affordable (their definition of that word is ridiculous) as well as the infrastructure necessary to deal with an increased level of strain on services.

I also question the Conservatives (any other parties) motivations to really deal with the crisis when the investment returns are so massive. If the government acts to bring down prices to an even vaguely sane degree then that investment will surely evaporate and their economic figures start looking significantly worse.
"Affordable housing" is not the problem in my opinion.
There are many countries which do not offer council homes.
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mojojojo101
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(Original post by M14B)
"Affordable housing" is not the problem in my opinion.
There are many countries which do not offer council homes.
Didn't mean council houses specifically, just houses that would be affordable to a person on a normal wage.

You can build as may million pound penthouses as you like, that aint going to help.
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paul514
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(Original post by Rover73)
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/...-eu-referendum

See video of Osborne declaring house prices will [FINALLY] fall.....if we Brexit.

So how much should the average house price cost?

UNDER 80 GRAND...... Thats how much the national average house price should cost today.
The individual national average wage was always able to buy the averagely priced house, all throughout the 1950's, 1960's, 1970's, 1980's and 1990's.

For no more than 3.5x individual income.[Thats the long term median. On a couple of occasions it touched 5x salary, but went back down again quickly enough. At the end of the eighties memorably. At other times, it was just 2.5x individual salary. What my parent paid in the sixties]

The average mortgate rate over that same period was 7%.Average Downpayment was 10%

That was the definition of affordability for the last half of the twentieth century.

[In 1997 the national average house price was £55k.The national average wage was £16,666 .
55K/16,666 = 3.3x......So In 1997 it was 3.3x individual salary.]

So If the priced out generations today were able to buy a house, relative to the same levels of affordability vs earnings that previous generations enjoyed, then the national UK Average House Price today, would cost no more than 3.5x the national averge individual wage of £26.5k
26.5 x 3.5 = £79.5kUNDER 80 GRAND.....

Yet according to the ONS the national average house price today is over 250 Grand!

In 1996 the amount of take home salary that a first time buyer would spend on their mortgage was 17.5%, but by 2008 this had risen to 49.3%.In London the take home salary that a First Time Buyer would spend on their mortgage, rose from 22.2% in 1997 to 66.6% in 2008


So, do you believe that house prices will fall from their stupendously ridiculous levels if we Brexit?
Correct the government controls every aspect of the housing market.

The supply
The demand
Mortgage regulations
Planning regulations

Planning regs have been stagnate for decades because muh green belt

Mortgages multiples have been cut to make lending safer and to curb prices

The planning restricts the supply which leaves the cause of house price rises being demand. Our population hardly grows so the growing demand comes from more people.

This is why housing north of Manchester and in Wales is still affordable as not many migrants move there


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ByEeek
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When I had just graduated I couldn't understand house prices or how anyone could afford them. I used the same reasoning and logic as you. However, having been around a while and also having just bought a large 4 bed house in a nice area, your assumptions are a little out.

Firstly, there is a shortage of houses. Not affordable houses but housing in general. So we have an upward pressure on prices based on simple supply and demand. I have a couple of mates with £800k+ to burn and they really struggled to find something simple because there wasn't much in their price range.

Secondly, we have moved from a society where there was traditionally only one bread winner. As a result, your assumptions would have held. However, house prices and the cost of living have increased to consume the salaries of a couple and in London have been skewed by the world elite investing. As a result, young singletons either have to live in shared accommodation or with their parents.

However, if you take a combined salary, one doesn't have to earn very much in order to afford a good house. For example, two people earning £25k each can easily afford a house of £200k+ which in my neck of the woods buys something half decent.

Another factor, and one I wholeheartedly understand is that there are lots of houses (and good houses) for less than £80k, but they tend to be in areas people don't want to live in. That, however is for individuals to reconcile with.

The final mystery to me is that many of the moaners in the SE don't consider moving elsewhere in order to fulfil their dream of home ownership. The cost of living in London and the South East, despite slightly better job and salary prospects just doesn't add up to me. I don't understand why people do it. But that is another discussion.
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username2553161
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No. Im afraid that doesnt work. Just because a man and his partner are both earning £25k each, it does not make the national average income of a couple £50k. The national average income of a couple is closer to £35k. [And that includes multiple benefits such as child benefit which most couples have.] You have to remember that over two thirds of wage earners, earn less than the average wage. Of course I take your point about more woman in the workplace. But it still is nowhere near the same logic and reasoning I use.
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username2553161
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The people who start to point out areas that are affordable in their opinion are completely missing the point [on purpose]

My original post addressed the whole of the uk. National averages. Every county taken into effect.

Its ridiculus to say that 'this' part of the country has not been affected by a tripling in house prices, when thats what happened between 1997 to 2007.

People who bought in 1997 have got one or two houses for free, and everyone coming after them, generation rent, are paying for their houses, [and pensions]
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paul514
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(Original post by Rover73)
The people who start to point out areas that are affordable in their opinion are completely missing the point [on purpose]

My original post addressed the whole of the uk. National averages. Every county taken into effect.

Its ridiculus to say that 'this' part of the country has not been affected by a tripling in house prices, when thats what happened between 1997 to 2007.

People who bought in 1997 have got one or two houses for free, and everyone coming after them, generation rent, are paying for their houses, [and pensions]
I love this guy!

I thought no one else on tsr got how stupid the housing market is and how to fix the situation


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Maker
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(Original post by Rover73)
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/...-eu-referendum

See video of Osborne declaring house prices will [FINALLY] fall.....if we Brexit.

So how much should the average house price cost?

UNDER 80 GRAND...... Thats how much the national average house price should cost today.
The individual national average wage was always able to buy the averagely priced house, all throughout the 1950's, 1960's, 1970's, 1980's and 1990's.

For no more than 3.5x individual income.[Thats the long term median. On a couple of occasions it touched 5x salary, but went back down again quickly enough. At the end of the eighties memorably. At other times, it was just 2.5x individual salary. What my parent paid in the sixties]

The average mortgate rate over that same period was 7%.Average Downpayment was 10%

That was the definition of affordability for the last half of the twentieth century.

[In 1997 the national average house price was £55k.The national average wage was £16,666 .
55K/16,666 = 3.3x......So In 1997 it was 3.3x individual salary.]

So If the priced out generations today were able to buy a house, relative to the same levels of affordability vs earnings that previous generations enjoyed, then the national UK Average House Price today, would cost no more than 3.5x the national averge individual wage of £26.5k
26.5 x 3.5 = £79.5kUNDER 80 GRAND.....

Yet according to the ONS the national average house price today is over 250 Grand!

In 1996 the amount of take home salary that a first time buyer would spend on their mortgage was 17.5%, but by 2008 this had risen to 49.3%.In London the take home salary that a First Time Buyer would spend on their mortgage, rose from 22.2% in 1997 to 66.6% in 2008


So, do you believe that house prices will fall from their stupendously ridiculous levels if we Brexit?
Brexit makes no difference to house prices since the demand will not decrease much. I think all your reasoning is irrlevant.
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ohgeez
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Brexit + Trade with the Commonwealth = Successsssssssssssssssssssssssss ssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssss sssssssssssss
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paul514
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(Original post by Maker)
Brexit makes no difference to house prices since the demand will not decrease much. I think all your reasoning is irrlevant.
It categorically won't bring a price down but it will stop some of the growth by having 100k or so less people looking for somewhere to live each year.


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typonaut
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(Original post by Rover73)
The average mortgate rate over that same period was 7%.
This ignores the fact that mortgage rates were in the mid teens in the early 1990s.

So, do you believe that house prices will fall from their stupendously ridiculous levels if we Brexit?
No, but staying in the EU gives the UK population the opportunity to go elsewhere in the EU where the pressures of housing costs are not so great.
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paul514
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(Original post by typonaut)
This ignores the fact that mortgage rates were in the mid teens in the early 1990s.



No, but staying in the EU gives the UK population the opportunity to go elsewhere in the EU where the pressures of housing costs are not so great.
Yea and people don't want to leave their country so they can buy a home.

What planet do you live on?


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typonaut
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(Original post by paul514)
Yea and people don't want to leave their country so they can buy a home.
People seem to be willing to do so, there's a whole genre of TV programmes dedicated to that issue alone.

What planet do you live on?
Europa. How about you, planet Brexit?
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neal95
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best way to do it is move somewhere like nuneaton for your first house cheap housing and they are building new builds which many in the locality are not happy about as they are building on farm land and they cannot afford the properties being built. they are for the young professional types from birmingham and london who have tired of the renter/city lifestyle and want to move to a suburb. if you have a professional job then the mortgage is pretty easy to secure and you can do it with 5% deposit. The area has brilliant transport links with 1 hour to london, 30 mins to birmingham and being roughly the center of england. people need to start getting up earlier and commuting rather than moan about not affording a house in the capital. you will be able to secure a much bigger property also
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Maker
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(Original post by paul514)
It categorically won't bring a price down but it will stop some of the growth by having 100k or so less people looking for somewhere to live each year.


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House prices are driven by available credit and has little to do with real demand. House prices fall when lending became tighter post 2008 after the credit crunch and its creeping up as more credit become available. It's been the trend since the 1970s, whenever credit becomes easier to get, house prices goes up and when the reverse happens, house prices go down. Its got no relationship to immigration levels.

Having fewer immigrants would have a very small effect, but nowhere near the big drops needed in London and the south for people on average wages to buy.
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Libtardian
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I find it rather amusing that the Remainians are the ones that suffer most from EU membership, especially the poor ones.
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the bear
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(Original post by Rover73)
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/...-eu-referendum

See video of Osborne declaring house prices will [FINALLY] fall.....if we Brexit.

So how much should the average house price cost?

UNDER 80 GRAND...... Thats how much the national average house price should cost today.
The individual national average wage was always able to buy the averagely priced house, all throughout the 1950's, 1960's, 1970's, 1980's and 1990's.

For no more than 3.5x individual income.[Thats the long term median. On a couple of occasions it touched 5x salary, but went back down again quickly enough. At the end of the eighties memorably. At other times, it was just 2.5x individual salary. What my parent paid in the sixties]

The average mortgate rate over that same period was 7%.Average Downpayment was 10%

That was the definition of affordability for the last half of the twentieth century.

[In 1997 the national average house price was £55k.The national average wage was £16,666 .
55K/16,666 = 3.3x......So In 1997 it was 3.3x individual salary.]

So If the priced out generations today were able to buy a house, relative to the same levels of affordability vs earnings that previous generations enjoyed, then the national UK Average House Price today, would cost no more than 3.5x the national averge individual wage of £26.5k
26.5 x 3.5 = £79.5kUNDER 80 GRAND.....

Yet according to the ONS the national average house price today is over 250 Grand!

In 1996 the amount of take home salary that a first time buyer would spend on their mortgage was 17.5%, but by 2008 this had risen to 49.3%.In London the take home salary that a First Time Buyer would spend on their mortgage, rose from 22.2% in 1997 to 66.6% in 2008


So, do you believe that house prices will fall from their stupendously ridiculous levels if we Brexit?
house prices are going to be obscene for the foreseeable future, BREXIT or no BREXIT
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