The government published a report where there are 5 scenarios if Britain leaves the EU. What do you think the most likely scenario will be? I study international and european law in Slovenia and will deffo be voting to #remain
1. Scenario: EEA "Norway" style agreement
2. Scenario: EFTA "Switzerland" style agreement
3. Scenario: Customs union "Turkey" style agreement
4. Scenario: Trade agreement "Canada" style agreement
5. Scenario: WTO style agreement
What do you think the most likely scenario will be if Britain leaves the EU? Watch
- Thread Starter
- 15-05-2016 13:51
- 15-05-2016 15:09
The EU will declare war on us.
- 15-05-2016 17:07
I think the problem is that there is no real consensus in the LEAVE campaign as to what it wants to achieve. Some want a total break with the EU, some want to remain part of the single market but without migration (free movement of people), some want more sovereignty, some think the EU is analogous to the Nazis…
Therefore, I think it is difficult to understand quite where the UK's relationship with the rest of the EU could end up.
I do think that the majority view within the LEAVE campaign revolves around immigration and sovereignty, so that would probably rule out options one and two, probably option three too.
This leaves four and five.
The Canadian deal has not yet been finalised, and excludes services (which are a major part of the UK economy), so I don't see this as ultimately very attractive. Option five clearly leaves the door open to tariffs on either side - again not very attractive.
I think it is important to recognise that there is not a single Western European state that is not a member of the EU/EEA/EFTA (I'm excluding microstates), and there probably is not a single Eastern European state (barring Russia) that ultimately does not want to become a member.
Therefore I'm not really sure it matters very much what relationships Canada or Australia have with the EU.Last edited by typonaut; 15-05-2016 at 17:27.
- 15-05-2016 17:17
Britain would be a far better place, that's what!
- 15-05-2016 17:19
We will make commonwealth the new EU, except no political and we would do a trade deal with commonwealth-EU but until then a UK-EU one,
I don't think we'll go in recession for too long or at all.
- 15-05-2016 17:21
- 15-05-2016 18:31
I think Dan Hodges sums it up-
First there is political paralysis. Cameron disappears on a seemingly endless round of shuttle diplomacy as he attempts to cajole and bully our former partners into granting propitious terms for our exit. The day-to-day business of running the country grinds to a halt as MPs demand a series of emergency debates, Ministers rush out emergency statements, and their civil servants scramble to come to terms with the full impact of Brexit on their departments. The SNP again raises the spectre of independence. The unions make threatening noises over the potential loss of workplace protection. The farmers begin protests at the potential loss of subsidies.
The diplomatic picture is equally dark. Britain finds itself excluded from a major EU summit as the remaining members debate its fate. Faced with their own domestic political pressures, Francois Hollande and Angela Merkel decide they cannot be seen to be bowing to UK demands. Britain's exclusion from the single market is confirmed.More than 30 countries which have free-trade agreements with the UK respond by demanding renegotiation of the terms. France announces that the Le Touquet agreement, which allows the UK to operate border controls at Calais, will be reviewed – with a view to returning border controls to Dover. Donald Trump sends the 'Out' campaign his congratulations.
But by far the most chilling scenario is the potential impact on the UK economy. The document predicts that on the afternoon after the vote, 'Bank of England Governor Mark Carney announces that the emergency support put in place to protect banks from instability as a result of Brexit uncertainty is being made available, in a bid to calm markets' – evidence of what Osborne meant when he referred to the Bank's contingency planning.Next, the credit-rating agencies warn that financial insecurity is threatening the UK's capacity to secure deficit reduction.
Businesses start laying off workers.Growth forecasts are revised down. The expectation of reduced tax receipts forces the Treasury to begin to plan an additional round of spending cuts. Unemployment begins to rise, leading to an increase in the welfare bill. Additional cuts need to be identified. And so the vicious Brexit cycle continues.