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Why do people want the UK to STAY in the EU? watch

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    Hi,

    I know the EU referendum is coming up next month and this is like a hot topic on all the newspapers - so I have decided to ask students and members on this forum for their opinions.

    One thing that is greatly pissing me off is the fact that the government have had to blast a load of BS to people to convince them to vote REMAIN in the EU - and people actually believe it! It is absurd and crazy to say the least.

    The government claim that by leaving the EU:
    - Prices in the UK will go up
    - There will be a war threat and terrorism etc
    - There will be less jobs and investments

    In my opinion it is all a load of bull. The point about the prices going up may be true BUT for how long? The UK is a powerhouse compared to a lot of the countries in the EU - THEY NEED THE UK, NOT THE OTHER WAY ROUND! The war stuff - again some of it is true, but with the free movement it is actually harder to catch criminals. You would think that catching criminals would somewhat reduce major crime no? Finally less jobs and investment - no I don't buy into that crap. There are hardly any jobs at the moment.

    My parents are not English and I was born here in London. Having being born and raised in London, I felt and still feel somewhat proud to be called a Londoner. However, London is just not the same no more. It is crap and feels like a dump. I am by no means a racist, but where are all the White people? I used to have White friends when I was younger and being an Asian those days wasn't so bad. People actually used to say hello to you. Now, you would be lucky for someone to even smile at you. I think there is an overpopulation problem in the UK and I fear that in the future I may not have a future. London is definitely not the place I remembered 10 years ago that is for sure. Where I have been living for the past 15 years - it used to be so good. There used to be pubs, parks and a cinema! Now the cinema no longer exists (turned into flats...), the pubs were shut (a shame because I wanted to go there when I turned 18, now 21 shut like 4 years ago!). A lot of people do not speak good English and frankly break the law a lot round where I live. They drink on the buses and on the streets. Sorry, I am ranting here - I have drifted away from the whole EU topic, however I felt that I had to make the point about London not being the same very clear.

    All in all, the politicians are the winners IF the country decides to stay in. It is not like us, society will actually benefit from the so called rewards - so why are people wanting to vote to remain...

    I just don't get it, they will only regret it like 5 years later...
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    (Original post by samklipas0)
    In my opinion it is all a load of bull.
    It is all bull. On both sides of the argument. I have softened in recent days to the out campaign. I still think being in is worth more than out, but if we leave, I have no confidence that Westminster MPs will do a better job than the EU do. Red tape existed before the EU and just look at the shash up the Tories have made of Education and the NHS in just the last 5 years.

    I spoke to someone who works in the Cabinate Office. She summed it up when she said that all MPs and their civil service advisors were the same. Primarily privately educated, white middle class, fat old men who had absolutely no idea about the "real" world and just did what they wanted despite the advice they receive. I have no real confidence in our MPs at all. Just look at the expenses scandal a few years ago. Many MPs caught up in that are still sitting. Even fiddling the books wasn't enough to get them voted out.
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    (Original post by samklipas0)
    Hi,

    I know the EU referendum is coming up next month and this is like a hot topic on all the newspapers - so I have decided to ask students and members on this forum for their opinions.

    One thing that is greatly pissing me off is the fact that the government have had to blast a load of BS to people to convince them to vote REMAIN in the EU - and people actually believe it! It is absurd and crazy to say the least.

    The government claim that by leaving the EU:
    - Prices in the UK will go up
    - There will be a war threat and terrorism etc
    - There will be less jobs and investments

    In my opinion it is all a load of bull. The point about the prices going up may be true BUT for how long? The UK is a powerhouse compared to a lot of the countries in the EU - THEY NEED THE UK, NOT THE OTHER WAY ROUND! The war stuff - again some of it is true, but with the free movement it is actually harder to catch criminals. You would think that catching criminals would somewhat reduce major crime no? Finally less jobs and investment - no I don't buy into that crap. There are hardly any jobs at the moment.

    My parents are not English and I was born here in London. Having being born and raised in London, I felt and still feel somewhat proud to be called a Londoner. However, London is just not the same no more. It is crap and feels like a dump. I am by no means a racist, but where are all the White people? I used to have White friends when I was younger and being an Asian those days wasn't so bad. People actually used to say hello to you. Now, you would be lucky for someone to even smile at you. I think there is an overpopulation problem in the UK and I fear that in the future I may not have a future. London is definitely not the place I remembered 10 years ago that is for sure. Where I have been living for the past 15 years - it used to be so good. There used to be pubs, parks and a cinema! Now the cinema no longer exists (turned into flats...), the pubs were shut (a shame because I wanted to go there when I turned 18, now 21 shut like 4 years ago!). A lot of people do not speak good English and frankly break the law a lot round where I live. They drink on the buses and on the streets. Sorry, I am ranting here - I have drifted away from the whole EU topic, however I felt that I had to make the point about London not being the same very clear.

    All in all, the politicians are the winners IF the country decides to stay in. It is not like us, society will actually benefit from the so called rewards - so why are people wanting to vote to remain...

    I just don't get it, they will only regret it like 5 years later...
    Well, let me take three of your claims and see how they stand up:

    1. The EU needs the UK more than the UK needs the EU.
    2. It is harder to catch criminals through freedom of movement.
    3. There wouldn't be less jobs and less investment if we left the EU.

    So, on your first point, it's great to see that you understand how international relations are important in this - and a key question in this debate is 'Who needs who more? Can the UK survive outside of the EU? Can the EU survive without the UK?'.

    Unfortunately, there are various factors to consider on this point - and the picture you paint is part of a small slice of a bigger picture. The 'Leave' campaign argues that we have an £80m deficit with the EU - which is true. We give them £80m more than they give us.

    But this fact alone only gives you part of the whole picture. Whereas the EU makes up about 45% of all of our exports, the UK makes up about 7% of their exports. This means that if trading relations were to collapse between the two of us - as could be threatened by Brexit - then whilst we would lose 1 in 2 exports, the EU would only lose about 1 in 20 exports. We would come out of it far worse, because we make a smaller percentage of their exports than they make of our exports.

    Can you see, therefore, how we need them more than they need us? Despite the £80m deficit, they're much more important to our exports than we are to them as a percentage. On that reason alone, it's not true that we can somehow negotiate "any deal" if we left the EU because we hold so much geopolitical power. We actually hold very little clout with the EU in terms of trade - and this is why up to two million jobs could be lost if we left the EU, why wages would decrease, etc.: because exporting would be harder and we'd have lost our single most important export partner.

    Also, the EU would be glad to get rid of the UK. The threat of Scottish secession has been annoying the Spanish, Italians and French who face their own independence problems and the UK has frankly been a prick in the EU's sides for a long time - whereas the rest of the EU wants to get on and integrate, the UK is on the outside with its Eurosceptic UKIP and Tory MEPs who are ranting and shouting and stopping the EU from actually being the superpower of 500m citizens that it should be.

    We're not important to the EU anywhere near as much as the EU is important to us.

    Secondly, on the point about criminals. It's good that we're both concerned about how best to keep crime safe and low, but I'm afraid we're better off fighting crime inside the EU.

    It's not true that freedom of movement leads to more crime: huge crime spikes were anticipated before the 2004 European expansion, but recent reports by senior policemen have proved that no such crime spike ever occurred. This is actually partially because we have kept out of the Schengen Area - so we know exactly who is coming into our borders because their passports are checked before arrival. if they're wanted in their own country and they're on UK territory, now we can deal with criminals properly. The European Arrest Warrant is also instrumental in preventing crime across the continent, having arrested 1,100 criminals wanted by the UK alone. It used to take years to get criminals wanted by the UK hiding in the EU arrested; now it takes weeks, if not days.

    We know that terrorism is a huge threat to the EU. But through policies like the European Arrest Warrant, we are able to tackle terrorism and crime more easily. And if we consider the greatest threat at the moment to the EU is terrorism, it has to be said that it is totally bonkers to suggest that whilst terrorism seems to expand and grow stronger, the EU should shrink and grow weaker - as would be threatened by Brexit. Through cooperation between police forces and governments, the EU's freedom of movement doesn't bring more crime to the UK: in fact, the EU helps to reduce crime.

    Thirdly, there would be less jobs and investment in the EU. I'm concerned about the national economy as much as you are and it's great that we both understand the economic importance of the referendum. But foreign investment and confidence in the UK is at its lowest this year as it has been since the financial crisis of 2008 - showing how investors are reluctant to put money in the UK as a result of the fear of Brexit. This economic instability has already been weakening our country ever since the Tories won the general election last year. When Boris Johnson announced he was backing 'Leave', the pound dropped 2% instantly.

    Those are all warning signs to show that there would be less jobs and investment in the EU, because the investment is already being withheld under the very fear of Brexit and not even Brexit itself. A recent survey of economists found that 88% agreed that Brexit would harm the economy in the short-term; economists are renowned for rarely having a consensus, so this is significant.

    And there hasn't been a single independent economic study of the impacts of Brexit which have suggested that - at least in the short-term - the UK wouldn't be affected badly. Whilst some Brexiteers argue there can be some long-term economic gain despite this short-term loss, only 4% of economists agree with them according to that recent survey. That short-term loss can also be comparable to causing a sudden brain-drain which may have its effects felt for many years (like the brain-drain in Southern Mediterranean countries since the 2008 financial crisis) - which is why a long-term decline of GDP is forecasted for the UK if it left the EU. For reference, the pound has been forecasted to drop 20% after a Brexit and the consensus is that GDP could drop by up to 2% - which is even worse than the GDP collapse from the financial crisis of 2008.

    As for the jobs, major companies are already warning that they will axe jobs in the UK if we leave the EU - especially banks. Many foreign banks from countries like America and Switzerland have their European headquarters in the UK because the UK offers access to the Single Market. If we were to leave the EU, this access would be threatened - especially if we chose agreements like Switzerland. For this reason, the headquarters would move, alongside businesses that rely on these banks. HSBC has already warned that it will remove 1,000 jobs from the UK in the event of a Brexit.

    So to recap, on your points, no: the EU is more important to the UK than the converse; crime is better fought within the EU and there will be fewer jobs and investment if the UK leaves the EU. The warning signs for all these are already there; the electorate simply has to look at the data and evaluate them.
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    Why do I want to stay in, then? Here they are in order of priority:

    1. Being a member of the EU gives me, as a British citizen, the right to live, work and study anywhere in the EU - meaning I have more opportunity and access to the resources of 28 member states, not just one. This is also guaranteed to my children and their own children - the individual opportunity offered by the European Union. I can move more easily wherever there are the jobs, the educational courses or the standards of living that I want in life.

    2. Being a member of the EU enables the great problems of the world to be solved. I don't like the EU - I prefer a liberal, fully-democratic, fully-devolved United States of Europe that focuses on the big issues of today and not on menial regulations like how much water our toilets can flush. Nonetheless, the EU facilitates intergovernmental discussion and action on the big global issues simply insurmountable by being Little Englanders - like climate change, terrorism and the biggest refugee crisis since the Second World War. By being members of the EU, the UK can help solve the world's largest problems and those which will ultimately define our generation in the history books of tomorrow.

    3. If we were to leave the EU, we would be giving a mandate for right-wing politicians like Nigel Farage, Michael Gove and Boris Johnson to take over British politics. This is worrying as many of the policies supported by individual Brexiteers are harrowing - such as scrapping sick pay, abolishing maternity leave, bringing hanging back, ending same-sex marriage, building more fossil-fuelled power stations, privatising the NHS, abolishing the BBC, etc.. Many of these politicians (and indeed businesses) want to leave the EU because they believe that the EU has too many regulations - not "too many regulations" because this damages businesses (the UK does actually have one of the freest markets in the continent, if not the West), but because these regulations prevent them from unleashing their own totalitarian agendas on the UK. Brexit is one step closer to a Tory totalitarian state and much of the reasons why these politicians support leaving the EU is because it is necessary if they want to build this totalitarian state.

    4. Leaving the EU would worsen the UK's international influence. Governments around the world - from the United States to India - are arguing that if the UK were to leave the EU, the UK would lose its clout on the world stage as a result of economic decline and heightened inability to affect regional geopolitics (so, ironically, the Brexiteers saying that Germany has too much power would just hand even more power to the Germans and the French by leaving the EU). The UK's power could also be weakened in the event of Scotland leaving the UK after the UK leaves the EU. This would call into question the UK's permanent seat on the UN Security Council, its standing in many international organisations and its importance in NATO. Arguments stating that we should leave in order to heighten ties with the Commonwealth are frankly delusional - if we win, it is on an anti-immigration, isolationist agenda, not on liberal, internationalist reasoning.

    5. There is no sound economic basis for 'Leave' arguments. Leaving means fewer jobs, less investment and lower confidence in the UK economy. The strong economic consensus has established that Brexit can cause a decline in GDP of up to 2% - worse than the 2008 financial crisis - and can lead to the pound dropping 20%, harming investor confidence in the UK economy. Already in recent months, confidence the UK's economy is the weakest that it has been in nine years as a result of Brexit fears. Leaving would also hurt small businesses as they could not export so easily to a population of 450 million abroad.

    6. If the UK were to leave the EU, Scotland could vote to leave the UK. The economic arguments for Scottish nationalism destroyed the 'Yes' campaign in 2014, but these economic arguments could disappear if the UK left the EU because the UK's own economy would be shattered. Like the 'Leave' campaign now argues (falsely) that the UK leaving the EU is analogous to leaving a sinking economic ship, so too can the 'Yes' campaign argue that Scotland leaving the UK is analogous to leaving a sinking economic ship. As a result, Scotland could vote for independence and rejoin the EU for greater economic stability. If Scotland were to leave the UK, the UK would undoubtedly lose much of its power - as well as a third of its territory and a tenth of its population - leading to further irrelevance.

    7. The 'Leave' campaign has frankly been insulting. I don't want to be like Norway or Albania, thank you. I want to be Britain - open-minded, forwards-thinking, outwards-looking, reaching years into the future and not decades into the past.

    8. If were to leave the EU, the peace process in Ireland and Northern Ireland could be damaged. The Irish government recently announced that border controls could be reinstated in the event of Brexit; this could stoke tensions at the border and unravel the peace process, leading us back to the 1980s and the terrorism we experienced then.

    9. I believe in a liberal, fully-devolved, fully-democratic United States of Europe that sets the standards worldwide. The European Union is a necessary evil on a step to such a political union, which would give the UK infinitely more power and leverage worldwide - as well as a stronger economy. The year is 2016, not 1916; we have stopped fighting the Germans and the Austrians and as globalisation takes the world by storm, the only sensible response is for our own society and economy to globalise and join forces with our former European foes for the good of tomorrow, so that we appreciate the diversity in our societies and ensure that we remain strong powers in an increasingly-polarised international world.
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    Well, instead of seeing it through all of these figures and statistics, the way I see it is this:

    Some politicians (and people of the public) have said that there are issues with border control, immigration and "power in Brussels" etc, and they said that the solution is to leave altogether so that they can "control their borders".

    Well, if you're faced with a challenge (like so), you can do one of two things. You can either:
    a. Attempt to solve the challenge, which means that there's some chance of solving it.
    b. Run, which gives a zero chance of solving.

    Neither side has particularly impressed me so far (though I'm not old enough to vote yet), but leaving will, in my opinion, backfire sharply. And it won't be anytime soon that we'll be allowed to rejoin if that happened.
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    Well we let in Arnis Zalkalns a convicted murderer in Latvia and he went on to kill someone here, so much for co-operation of intelligence between countries, the Latvian government failed to mention and pass on intelligence that he had served prison for the murder of his wife. How can we be so sure that this great co-operation between EU member states will not happen again.
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    (Original post by MattB_)
    Well we let in Arnis Zalkalns a convicted murderer in Latvia and he went on to kill someone here, so much for co-operation of intelligence between countries, the Latvian government failed to mention and pass on intelligence that he had served prison for the murder of his wife. How can we be so sure that this great co-operation between EU member states will not happen again.
    Of course, the system will not always run smoothly - and there will always be irregularities and misjudgements.

    One perspective to be considered, though, is that how far do you then want borders to go? Thanks to freedom of movement across the UK, I could go into Scotland tomorrow and murder someone there. Should we build a border around all of England? Around all of the South? London? My borough?

    Latvia has a higher murder rate than the UK (Latvia's is 3 per 100,000 compared to the UK's 1 per 100,000) - but homicides in even the City of London are over four times greater than Latvia's (12.4 per 100,000). Worse still is Boston, with 15 per 100,000.

    Should we build borders across Boston and the City of London, or kick them out of the UK? Their residents can come to your village and kill you with their high crime rates!

    Equally, countries like Luxembourg have homicide rates of about 0.2 per 100,000 - far lower than even the UK's homicide rate. Doesn't Luxembourg have a right to complain about our own rates?

    The point is, I suppose, that some crime isn't a justification to abolish the freedom of movement completely. These instances are fairly low and EU immigrants comprise a smaller percentage of all UK crimes than they do in population.

    Yes, wherever you have freedom of movement, you facilitate inter-regional and international crime. Does that mean freedom of movement is on-the-whole bad? No. Is the effect of crime from the EU on the UK negligible? More or less, yes - and especially when you consider how EU cooperation prevents international crime despite the EU's freedom of movement facilitating it.

    One way of putting it is that some crime from freedom of movement is inevitable, but it's managed well through the cooperation between European states through the EU, meaning that the crime is so negligible is not even worth considering when making up your mind on the EU. Leaving the EU probably won't cause a considerable decrease in crime in the UK - but it does make catching criminals across borders and fighting other international crimes (such as tax avoidance) much harder. Does our membership of the EU bring more crime into the UK? Not considerably. Will it be harder for us to catch criminals if we leave the EU? Yes - considerably.

    Cherrypicking data or case studies doesn't make the point less true.
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    In, and most of my points have already been made above.
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    Not one leave campaigner can confidently tell you what will happen when if we leave. We could enter a recession so bad we'll never recover to the growth we're experiencing now.
 
 
 
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