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Rorschach II
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^^
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1420787
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Not at all, it is about making predictions based on all the available data.

If I book a holiday in Spain in July and it rains the whole time, it doesn't mean I didn't make a rational choice based on the available data. It means that ultimately some things cannot be known with certainty.

The only issue is when people talk about economic forecasts like they're guarantees.
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Archdukes
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Modern economics attempts to fit human free will into equations. Econometrics can only be descriptive and not prescriptive.
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Rorschach II
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(Original post by offhegoes)
Not at all, it is about making predictions based on all the available data.

If I book a holiday in Spain in July and it rains the whole time, it doesn't mean I didn't make a rational choice based on the available data. It means that ultimately some things cannot be known with certainty.

The only issue is when people talk about economic forecasts like they're guarantees.
That's on the premise economists aren't influenced by other factors when making these decisions / thoughts.

I'm pretty sure weather forecasting isn't very comparable to economics.
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(Original post by XcitingStuart)
That's on the premise economists aren't influenced by other factors when making these decisions / thoughts.

I'm pretty sure weather forecasting isn't very comparable to economics.
Making predictions based on available data? Modelling using computing power? Chance of beng wrong? Of course they are entirely difference disciplines, but the similarities are there.

My understanding is that any reputable economist, like any respectable scientist, will publish based on evidence and best-estimations, stating clearly why they've come to those conclusions. Confirmation bias is applicable just like in any research-basd area.
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(Original post by Archdukes)
Modern economics attempts to fit human free will into equations. Econometrics can only be descriptive and not prescriptive.
Gaming theory, based on predicting human behaviour and modelling to help make decisions, is no less a field of study because of the inherent unpredictability of people. No-one is suggesting it is prescriptive though.
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